Pronóstico Sevilla vs FC Barcelona
Nuestras apuestas
Team total goals - Sevilla
Sevilla under 1.5 goals
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g).
Por qué esta apuesta
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g). Sevilla also lose Vargas and Stassin from an already low-volume attack.
- Real
- 1
No hay cuota con la que comparar, así que es una decisión de criterio, evaluada por sí sola.
70%Total cards (yellows + reds, both teams)over 3.5 total cardsFallada
Two independent signals: Sevilla's home games averaged 5.2 total yellows (3.0 for, 2.2 against) with 14.6 fouls/g, and referee Martínez Munuera runs 4.29 yellows and 27 fouls per game this season. Sevilla chasing a dominant Barça raises foul volume further; Barça's own low 1.7/g away is the only offset.
- Real
- 1
No hay cuota con la que comparar, así que es una decisión de criterio, evaluada por sí sola.
En resumen
Barcelona are rightly heavy favourites at 1.22 and nothing in the priced markets offers value, so the play is on the unpriced side: Sevilla kept quiet (under 1.5 team goals) and a card-heavy game under Martínez Munuera.
Más a fondo
Qué pasó1–3 · 1 de 2 apuestas acertadas
Resultado final
1–3
Goles
4 (esperábamos 3.3)
Córners
4 (esperábamos 8.8)
Tarjetas
1 (esperábamos 4.6)
Nosotros vs las casasEstamos a menos de 4 puntos de las casas en todo.
| Nuestra | Casas | Diferencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gana Sevilla | 9% | 9% | 0 |
| Empate | 13% | 14% | -1 |
| Gana FC Barcelona | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Más de 1.5 goles | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Más de 3.5 goles | 53% | 54% | -1 |
| Ambos marcan | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Penalti en el partido | 24% | – | – |
| Tarjeta roja en el partido | 12% | – | – |
Las cifras de las casas son sus cuotas sin margen. Se destaca una diferencia de 4 puntos o más. La columna del proveedor de datos es su propio pronóstico, mostrado como referencia.
Goles esperados
1.00 – 2.25
Córners esperados
8.8
Tarjetas esperadas
4.6
Resultados más probables
1-2 (10%) · 0-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)
Últimas noticias de los equipos (7)Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
2026-09-17fiabilidad: highiusport.com
Barcelona without Frenkie de Jong (knee/meniscus) and Roony Bardghji (torn ACL, long-term).
2026-09-18fiabilidad: highsportsmole.co.uk
Joan García out/rested after being substituted at half-time vs Racing with a knee issue; Szczesny expected to start in goal.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: mediumeurosport.es
Flick expected to make up to five changes; predicted XI Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsí, Martín, Espart; Fermín, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Raphinha, Adeyemi/Gordon.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla miss Rubén Vargas (knee) and Arouna Sangante (ankle); Lucas Stassin ruled out/doubtful with a muscle-adductor problem.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla coach's pre-match presser: Kike Salas a doubt with a contusion; Marcão still two to three weeks short of match fitness; Cardoso not in plans.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: lowes.soccerway.com
Barcelona arrive on seven straight competitive wins; Yamal has 7 goals in his last 4 La Liga games and Raphinha 11 in 7.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Qué podría salir malConfirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Confirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Whether Kike Salas passes fit
- Identity of Sevilla's current head coach is reported inconsistently across sources
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
- Extent of Flick's rotation before the international break
Los datosSevillaWWDLWFC BarcelonaWWWWW
Estos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
| Sevilla | FC Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Posición en la tabla | 5/20 | 1/20 |
| Puntos (jugados) | 13 (6) | 18 (6) |
| Forma | WWDLW | WWWWW |
| Puntos por partido | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goles a favor – en contra | 1.1 – 1.1 | 2.4 – 1.0 |
| Goles esperados (xG) a favor – en contra | 1.15 – 0.90 | 2.23 – 1.15 |
| Porterías a cero | 20% | 30% |
| Marcaron ambos | 60% | 60% |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 40% | 70% |
| Córners a favor – en contra | 3.5 – 3.5 | 4.9 – 4.1 |
| Amarillas a favor – en contra | 3.0 – 2.2 | 1.7 – 1.9 |
| Días desde el último partido | 3 | 3 |
Últimos 10 partidos: el local en casa, el visitante fuera. Goles y xG son a favor–en contra por partido; córners y amarillas igual.
Enfrentamientos directos
111 partidos: 21 victorias locales, 25 empates, 65 victorias visitantes · 3.0 goles por partido.
- 2026-03-15 · FC Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla
- 2025-10-05 · Sevilla 4–1 FC Barcelona
- 2025-02-09 · Sevilla 1–4 FC Barcelona
- 2024-10-20 · FC Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla
- 2024-05-26 · Sevilla 1–2 FC Barcelona
Árbitro
Juan Martinez Munuera (Spain)
Esta temporada: 4.29 amarillas y 27.0 faltas por partido en 38 partidos.
Últimos 10 partidos: 3.60 amarillas por partido.
Bajas
Sevilla
A. Sangante (injured: Sprained Ankle)
L. Stassin (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
FC Barcelona
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
R. Bardghji (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Alineaciones: predicted
Cuotas de las casas
Sevilla
10.78
Empate
7.00
FC Barcelona
1.22
Más de 2.5 goles
1.29
Menos de 2.5 goles
3.43
Ambos marcan: sí
1.65
Ambos marcan: no
2.15
Consenso de varias casas de apuestas. Su margen combinado es del 5.5%.
Últimos 10 partidos — Sevilla
| 09-16 | V | Deportivo de A Coruña | 1–0 | W |
| 09-11 | L | Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 09-06 | V | Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | L | Atlético Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 08-22 | V | Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 08-15 | L | Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 05-23 | V | Celta Vigo | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | L | Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 05-13 | V | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 05-09 | L | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
Últimos 10 partidos — FC Barcelona
| 09-16 | L | Real Racing Club | 7–2 | W |
| 09-13 | V | Levante UD | 4–2 | W |
| 09-09 | L | Feyenoord | 5–1 | W |
| 09-06 | V | Valencia | 5–0 | W |
| 08-31 | L | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | W |
| 08-27 | L | Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
| 08-23 | V | Elche | 5–0 | W |
| 05-23 | V | Valencia | 1–3 | L |
| 05-17 | L | Real Betis | 3–1 | W |
| 05-13 | V | Deportivo Alavés | 0–1 | L |
El análisis completoEl razonamiento completo del analista · 2 min de lectura
(a) Data. Barcelona are 5/5 in La Liga, GD +22, xGF 24.2 vs Sevilla's 6.2, and have won 8 of 10 (2.4 pts/g), scoring 3.7/g overall but a more sober 2.4/g away with xG 2.23. Sevilla are 5th on 13 pts, form WWDLW, but the wins are narrow: at home 1.1 GF and 1.1 GA per game, xG 1.15-0.9, and they have scored ≤1 in 8 of 10 home games. They score late (11 of 14 home goals after 45') and concede early (8 of 11 in the first half) — a bad combination against a side that scored first in 7 of 10 away games. Set pieces: Sevilla home corners only 3.5 for / 3.5 against; Barça away 4.9/4.1 — total lands near 8.5-9, matching Bzzoiro (over 8.5 59.5%). Cards: Sevilla 3.0 yellows/g at home, opponents 2.2 (home totals averaged 5.2); Barça a very low 1.7 away; Munuera runs 4.29 Y/g this season (3.6 last 10) with 27 fouls/g. Penalties: Sevilla have conceded none in 10; Munuera's last 10 produced one scored penalty. H2H is lopsided (8 Barça wins in 10, 3.6 goals/g), though Sevilla won 4-1 at home in Oct 2025.
(b) News. Confirmed: Munuera referees (iusport/101TV). Barça miss De Jong and Bardghji; Joan García is out/rested after his knee issue at half-time vs Racing, Szczesny expected — a mild negative for Barça's defence. Flick is reported to be rotating up to five players, but the attack (Yamal, Raphinha) stays. Sevilla lose Vargas and Stassin, with Kike Salas doubtful — their thin attack gets thinner.
(c) vs market. My numbers (1.0 – 2.25 xG) reproduce the market: away 78%, over 2.5 73%, over 3.5 53%, BTTS 58% — all within 2 pts of the no-margin prices, so no priced edge. Deviation is unwarranted.
(d) Uncertainty. Barça rotation depth, 31°C heat slowing the game, and Sevilla's ability to sit deep (they did hold Barça to 1 goal once). Sevilla's goal timing sample is only 10 games.
Analizado por opus con búsqueda web.