Pronóstico Liechtenstein vs Lithuania
Liechtenstein
LithuaniaNuestra apuesta
Goals over/under 2.5
under 2.5 goals
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Por qué esta apuesta
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Liechtenstein scored 1 goal in 10 games (0.31 chances-created value per game), and only 3 of their last 10 home games had 3+ goals. Every home loss to comparable sides ended 0-2. Lithuania average 0.4 away goals and 4 of their last 10 away games went over 2.5. With about 2.0 expected total goals, a Poisson model gives about 64% for under 2.5 against 54.9% no-margin implied. Rain and a key midfield absence for Lithuania also point to a low total.
- Cuota
- 1.71
- La cuota implica
- 54.9%
- Real
- 2
Nuestra probabilidad es mayor que la que implica la cuota de la casa: esa diferencia es la ventaja.
En resumen
Back under 2.5 goals: Liechtenstein almost never score and Lithuania's attack is weak.
- 1Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last ten games.
- 2Lithuania average 0.7 goals a game and lost midfielder Magdušauskas to injury.
- 3We give under 2.5 goals 64%; the price implies about 55%.
Más a fondo
Qué pasó0–2 · 1 de 1 apuestas acertadas
Resultado final
0–2
Goles
2 (esperábamos 2.0)
Córners
8 (esperábamos 8.2)
Tarjetas
2 (esperábamos 4.4)
Nosotros vs las casasMayor desacuerdo: Más de 2.5 goles — nosotros 36%, las casas 45%
| Nuestra | Casas | Diferencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gana Liechtenstein | 9% | 8% | +1 |
| Empate | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Gana Lithuania | 69% | 73% | -4 |
| Más de 1.5 goles | 61% | 69% | -8 |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 36% | 45% | -9 |
| Más de 3.5 goles | 16% | 25% | -9 |
| Ambos marcan | 31% | 34% | -3 |
| Penalti en el partido | 22% | – | – |
| Tarjeta roja en el partido | 12% | – | – |
Las cifras de las casas son sus cuotas sin margen. Se destaca una diferencia de 4 puntos o más. La columna del proveedor de datos es su propio pronóstico, mostrado como referencia.
Goles esperados
0.45 – 1.55
Córners esperados
8.2
Tarjetas esperadas
4.4
Resultados más probables
0-1 (18%) · 0-2 (15%) · 1-1 (10%)
Últimas noticias de los equipos (5)Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June…
Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June; predicted XI named.
2026-09-22fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Liechtenstein lost June 2026 friendlies to Andorra and Cyprus; one win in four fixtures this year (friendlies not in the pack).
2026-09-22fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Lithuania: no fresh injuries per preview; Kucys and Gineitis available; lost Baltic Cup final 1-0 to Estonia.
2026-09-22fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas is out injured; coach Jankauskas regrets the loss and says Lithuania must prove their favourite status.
2026-09-23fiabilidad: highregionuzinios.lt
Lithuania's 26-man squad recalls Slivka, Dolžnikov, Steponavičius, Ruzgis, Kazukolovas, Gertmonas and Širvys; Lithuania host Azerbaijan on 27 September.
2026-09fiabilidad: highlrt.lt
Qué podría salir malLiechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Liechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Lo que no pudo verificar
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Liechtenstein injury news from a club/federation source
- Pitch condition after rain
Los datosEstos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
Estos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
| Liechtenstein | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| Puntos por partido | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Goles a favor – en contra | 0.1 – 2.3 | 0.4 – 1.6 |
| Goles esperados (xG) a favor – en contra | 0.43 – 2.16 | 0.86 – 1.45 |
| Porterías a cero | 10% | 20% |
| Marcaron ambos | 10% | 30% |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 30% | 40% |
| Córners a favor – en contra | 0.8 – 7.5 | 1.8 – 5.8 |
| Amarillas a favor – en contra | 2.7 – 1.7 | 2.6 – 2.1 |
| Días desde el último partido | 310 | 311 |
Últimos 10 partidos: el local en casa, el visitante fuera. Goles y xG son a favor–en contra por partido; córners y amarillas igual.
Enfrentamientos directos
2 partidos: 0 victorias locales, 0 empates, 2 victorias visitantes · 2.0 goles por partido.
- 2013-09-10 · Lithuania 2–0 Liechtenstein
- 2012-10-12 · Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
Árbitro
Ante Čulina (Croatia)
Esta temporada: 4.50 amarillas y 25.0 faltas por partido en 2 partidos.
Últimos 2 partidos: 4.50 amarillas por partido.
Bajas
Liechtenstein
Ninguna comunicada
Lithuania
Ninguna comunicada
Alineaciones: predicted
Cuotas de las casas
Liechtenstein
11.40
Empate
4.86
Lithuania
1.29
Más de 2.5 goles
2.08
Menos de 2.5 goles
1.71
Ambos marcan: sí
2.73
Ambos marcan: no
1.41
Consenso de varias casas de apuestas. Su margen combinado es del 6.9%.
Últimos 10 partidos — Liechtenstein
| 11-18 | V | Belgium | 0–7 | L |
| 11-15 | L | Wales | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | V | Kazakhstan | 0–4 | L |
| 09-07 | V | North Macedonia | 0–5 | L |
| 09-04 | L | Belgium | 0–6 | L |
| 06-06 | V | Wales | 0–3 | L |
| 03-25 | L | Kazakhstan | 0–2 | L |
| 03-22 | L | North Macedonia | 0–3 | L |
| 11-18 | L | San Marino | 1–3 | L |
| 10-13 | L | Gibraltar | 0–0 | D |
Últimos 10 partidos — Lithuania
| 11-17 | V | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 10-12 | L | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 10-09 | V | Finland | 1–2 | L |
| 09-07 | L | Netherlands | 2–3 | L |
| 09-04 | L | Malta | 1–1 | D |
| 06-07 | V | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | L | Finland | 2–2 | D |
| 03-21 | V | Poland | 0–1 | L |
| 11-18 | V | Kosovo | 0–1 | L |
| 11-15 | V | Cyprus | 1–2 | L |
El análisis completoEl razonamiento completo del analista · 2 min de lectura
Lithuania should beat Liechtenstein, but two sides that rarely score in a rainy, low-event opener point to under 2.5 goals.
Data (pack). Liechtenstein are 0-1-9 over their last 10 games with 0.1 goals scored per game, and they failed to score in 90% of them. Their chances created add up to 0.31 a game, from 2.4 shots. At home they concede 2.3 a game, but most of that came against Belgium. Against sides at Lithuania's level (Andorra, Latvia, Moldova, Kazakhstan) they lost 0-2 each time. Only 3 of their last 10 home games went over 2.5 goals. Lithuania are 0-3-7 with 0.7 goals a game, 0.4 away, and failed to score in 60% of away games. Four of their last ten away games went over 2.5. Their chances created are about 0.7-0.9 a game, though that was mostly against stronger opponents. The only previous meetings were two 2-0 Lithuania wins. Referee Čulina: 4.5 yellows a game on a tiny sample. Rain and wind are forecast.
News (web). Sports Mole (22 Sep) says both sides have no injuries and names probable line-ups. Liechtenstein have Büchel back in goal and captain Hasler back; the pack's 310-day rest ignores June friendlies (losses to Andorra and Cyprus). Lithuania are without midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas, who was injured before camp. Coach Jankauskas says the team must play like favourites. Lithuania face Azerbaijan three days later.
Market. The match-result prices (Lithuania 72.5%) look fair, so I stay close. I make it roughly 1-0.5 per cent adjustments: 9/22/69, giving a little more to the draw because Lithuania finish their chances poorly. On goals, a model with Liechtenstein expected to score about 0.45 and Lithuania about 1.55 gives roughly 2.0 total goals and about 35% for over 2.5. The market has 45%. The third-party model credits Liechtenstein with nearly one goal, which their record doesn't support. That gap is the edge on under 2.5. Both sides scoring (31% vs 34%) and corners (about 8 expected, close to the third-party line) don't clear the bars.
Uncertainties. Liechtenstein's defence has fallen apart in the second half before (0-7, 0-6 and 0-5 against better teams). Lithuania may play with extra ambition against the weakest side in the group. Both teams' September form is unknown.
Analizado por opus con búsqueda web.