Pronóstico Andorra vs Malta
Andorra
MaltaNuestras apuestas
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
Por qué esta apuesta
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
The teams' yellow rates add up to about 4.7 (Andorra 2.3 per home game, Malta 2.4 per away game), Andorra foul 15 times per game at home, and referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows over his last 10 games. The last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows plus a red. I expect about 4.6 cards.
- Real
- 7
No hay cuota con la que comparar, así que es una decisión de criterio, evaluada por sí sola.
60%Total cornersunder 9.5 cornersAcertada
Andorra's corner totals are 7.1–7.5 per game and Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win only about 1 corner per game, and neither side is strong enough to keep up sustained pressure. The Bzzoiro model also leans under 9.5 (55%). I expect about 7.8 corners.
- Real
- 5
No hay cuota con la que comparar, así que es una decisión de criterio, evaluada por sí sola.
En resumen
Back over 3.5 cards and under 9.5 corners; the result and goals prices look fair.
- 1Andorra failed to score in 8 of their last 10 games.
- 2Referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows per game over his last 10.
- 3Our result and goals numbers match the bookmakers', so no value there.
Más a fondo
Qué pasó1–2 · 2 de 2 apuestas acertadas
Resultado final
1–2
Goles
3 (esperábamos 2.0)
Córners
5 (esperábamos 7.8)
Tarjetas
7 (esperábamos 4.6)
Nosotros vs las casasEstamos a menos de 4 puntos de las casas en todo.
| Nuestra | Casas | Diferencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gana Andorra | 25% | 26% | -1 |
| Empate | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Gana Malta | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Más de 1.5 goles | 56% | 58% | -2 |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Más de 3.5 goles | 12% | 16% | -4 |
| Ambos marcan | 38% | 39% | -1 |
| Penalti en el partido | 22% | – | – |
| Tarjeta roja en el partido | 25% | – | – |
Las cifras de las casas son sus cuotas sin margen. Se destaca una diferencia de 4 puntos o más. La columna del proveedor de datos es su propio pronóstico, mostrado como referencia.
Goles esperados
0.95 – 1.10
Córners esperados
7.8
Tarjetas esperadas
4.6
Resultados más probables
1-1 (13%) · 0-1 (13%) · 0-0 (12%)
Últimas noticias de los equipos (4)Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
2026-09-21fiabilidad: highmaltafootball.com
James Carragher is left out of the Malta squad; 16-year-old Jayden Roe got a first call-up but did not travel.
2026-09-22fiabilidad: highthemalteseherald.com
Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia; Sports Mole also lists Max Llovera as absent, but a Sportskeeda preview names him among five new call-ups (with de Pablos, C. García, È. Vales and Rosas). Marc Vales captains.
2026-09fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
June friendlies missing from the pack: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia.
2026-09fiabilidad: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Qué podría salir malA quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
A quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
Lo que no pudo verificar
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Current status of Andorra injury I. Álvarez
- Whether Max Llovera is in Andorra's squad (sources conflict)
- Bookmaker prices for cards and corners
Los datosEstos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
Estos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
| Andorra | Malta | |
|---|---|---|
| Puntos por partido | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goles a favor – en contra | 0.5 – 1.4 | 0.8 – 2.0 |
| Goles esperados (xG) a favor – en contra | 0.42 – 1.87 | 0.72 – 2.54 |
| Porterías a cero | 10% | 30% |
| Marcaron ambos | 40% | 30% |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 30% | 40% |
| Córners a favor – en contra | 1.0 – 6.5 | 2.8 – 5.4 |
| Amarillas a favor – en contra | 2.3 – 2.3 | 2.4 – 2.1 |
| Días desde el último partido | 315 | 177 |
Últimos 10 partidos: el local en casa, el visitante fuera. Goles y xG son a favor–en contra por partido; córners y amarillas igual.
Enfrentamientos directos
4 partidos: 0 victorias locales, 2 empates, 2 victorias visitantes · 1.3 goles por partido.
- 2024-11-19 · Malta 0–0 Andorra
- 2024-09-10 · Andorra 0–1 Malta
- 2020-11-14 · Malta 3–1 Andorra
- 2020-10-10 · Andorra 0–0 Malta
Árbitro
Joey Kooij (Netherlands)
Esta temporada: 3.24 amarillas y 24.1 faltas por partido en 33 partidos.
Últimos 10 partidos: 4.10 amarillas por partido.
Bajas
Andorra
I. Álvarez (injured: national_team)
Malta
J. Mbong (suspended: red_card_suspension)
Alineaciones: predicted
Cuotas de las casas
Andorra
3.60
Empate
2.70
Malta
2.40
Más de 2.5 goles
3.00
Menos de 2.5 goles
1.36
Ambos marcan: sí
2.38
Ambos marcan: no
1.53
Consenso de varias casas de apuestas. Su margen combinado es del 6.5%.
Últimos 10 partidos — Andorra
| 11-13 | L | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 10-14 | L | Serbia | 1–3 | L |
| 10-11 | V | Latvia | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | V | England | 0–2 | L |
| 06-10 | V | Serbia | 0–3 | L |
| 06-07 | L | England | 0–1 | L |
| 03-24 | V | Albania | 0–3 | L |
| 03-21 | L | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-19 | V | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 11-16 | L | Moldova | 0–1 | L |
Últimos 10 partidos — Malta
| 03-31 | V | Luxembourg | 0–3 | L |
| 03-26 | L | Luxembourg | 0–2 | L |
| 11-17 | L | Poland | 2–3 | L |
| 11-14 | V | Finland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-09 | L | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 09-04 | V | Lithuania | 1–1 | D |
| 06-10 | V | Netherlands | 0–8 | L |
| 06-07 | L | Lithuania | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | V | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 03-21 | L | Finland | 0–1 | L |
El análisis completoEl razonamiento completo del analista · 2 min de lectura
A tight, low-scoring match between two of Europe's weakest attacks, leaning slightly to Malta; the result prices look fair, so the only value is in cards and corners.
Data (pack). Andorra: 0.3 goals scored per game in the last 10 and failed to score in 80%. At home they average 0.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.87 against, with 26% possession. Malta: 0.4 goals per game in all competitions and 0.8 away, but they concede 2.0–2.4. Both sides do most of their scoring late. The last four meetings produced 1.2 goals per game, including two 0-0s. Malta won 1-0 in Andorra in 2024. Card rates are fairly high: Andorra 2.3 yellows per game at home, Malta 2.4 away, and Andorra commit 15 fouls per game at home. Referee Kooij averages 3.24 yellows per game this season and 4.1 over his last 10, with 0.3 reds per game. Corners: Andorra's totals are 7.1–7.5 per game, Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win very few corners (0.75–1.0 per game).
News (web). Malta lose Joseph Mbong (suspended) and Aleandro Garzia (injured). James Carragher is not in the squad, and Ryan Camenzuli returns. Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia. Max Llovera is also missing per Sports Mole, although a Sportskeeda preview lists him among the new call-ups, so that is conflicting. Marc Vales captains. The pack leaves out June friendlies: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia. Nothing here changes the picture much.
Market. The 1X2 prices (26/35/39) and under 2.5 at 69% match the data. I stay close to the market: home 25, draw 35, away 40, over 2.5 at 30%. No priced market clears the 4-point bar.
Unpriced leans.
- Cards: the team rates add up to about 4.7 yellows, the referee's recent 4.1 per game backs that up, and the last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows. I expect about 4.6 cards, which gives over 3.5 roughly 61%.
- Corners: both teams' totals sit below 8.5, and Andorra barely win any. I expect about 7.8. The Bzzoiro model gives under 9.5 about 55%, and my blend is 60%.
Uncertainties. The pack's windows reach back into last season, and neither side has played a competitive game for months. Kooij's recent numbers come from higher-level matches. A dead 0-0 could keep both cards and fouls low.
Analizado por opus con búsqueda web.