Pronóstico AS Roma vs Inter
Nuestras apuestas
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
Por qué esta apuesta
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- Cuota
- 2.49
- La cuota implica
- 37.6%
- Real
- BTTS yes
Nuestra probabilidad es mayor que la que implica la cuota de la casa: esa diferencia es la ventaja.
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)Acertada
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- Real
- 6
No hay cuota con la que comparar, así que es una decisión de criterio, evaluada por sí sola.
En resumen
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
Más a fondo
Qué pasó2–2 · 1 de 2 apuestas acertadas
Resultado final
2–2
Goles
4 (esperábamos 2.8)
Córners
6 (esperábamos 9.2)
Tarjetas
6 (esperábamos 4.8)
Nosotros vs las casasMayor desacuerdo: Ambos marcan — nosotros 57%, las casas 62%
| Nuestra | Casas | Diferencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gana AS Roma | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Empate | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Gana Inter | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| Más de 1.5 goles | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Más de 3.5 goles | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| Ambos marcan | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| Penalti en el partido | 24% | – | – |
| Tarjeta roja en el partido | 12% | – | – |
Las cifras de las casas son sus cuotas sin margen. Se destaca una diferencia de 4 puntos o más. La columna del proveedor de datos es su propio pronóstico, mostrado como referencia.
Goles esperados
1.50 – 1.25
Córners esperados
9.2
Tarjetas esperadas
4.8
Resultados más probables
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Últimas noticias de los equipos (6)Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19fiabilidad: mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19fiabilidad: mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18fiabilidad: mediumcalciomercato.com
Qué podría salir malConfirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
Los datosAS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
Estos son los datos que recibió el analista para este partido.
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Posición en la tabla | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| Puntos (jugados) | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Forma | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| Puntos por partido | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Goles a favor – en contra | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Goles esperados (xG) a favor – en contra | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| Porterías a cero | 60% | 40% |
| Marcaron ambos | 40% | 50% |
| Más de 2.5 goles | 70% | 50% |
| Córners a favor – en contra | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| Amarillas a favor – en contra | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| Días desde el último partido | 5 | 5 |
Últimos 10 partidos: el local en casa, el visitante fuera. Goles y xG son a favor–en contra por partido; córners y amarillas igual.
Enfrentamientos directos
131 partidos: 37 victorias locales, 42 empates, 52 victorias visitantes · 3.0 goles por partido.
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
Árbitro
Davide Massa (Italy)
Esta temporada: 3.92 amarillas y 25.7 faltas por partido en 39 partidos.
Últimos 10 partidos: 4.50 amarillas por partido.
Bajas
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
Alineaciones: predicted
Cuotas de las casas
AS Roma
2.61
Empate
3.45
Inter
2.57
Más de 2.5 goles
1.60
Menos de 2.5 goles
2.35
Ambos marcan: sí
1.50
Ambos marcan: no
2.49
Consenso de varias casas de apuestas. Su margen combinado es del 6.2%.
Últimos 10 partidos — AS Roma
| 09-14 | V | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | V | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | L | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | V | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | L | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | V | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | L | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | V | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | L | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | V | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
Últimos 10 partidos — Inter
| 09-14 | L | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | V | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | L | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | V | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | L | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | V | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | L | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | V | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | V | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | L | Parma | 2–0 | W |
El análisis completoEl razonamiento completo del analista · 2 min de lectura
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
Analizado por opus con búsqueda web.