Sevilla – FC Barcelona Prognose
Unsere Tipps
Team total goals - Sevilla
Sevilla under 1.5 goals
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g).
Warum dieser Tipp
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g). Sevilla also lose Vargas and Stassin from an already low-volume attack.
- Tatsächlich
- 1
Es gibt keine Quote zum Vergleich, daher ist dies eine Einschätzung, die für sich bewertet wird.
70%Total cards (yellows + reds, both teams)over 3.5 total cardsVerloren
Two independent signals: Sevilla's home games averaged 5.2 total yellows (3.0 for, 2.2 against) with 14.6 fouls/g, and referee Martínez Munuera runs 4.29 yellows and 27 fouls per game this season. Sevilla chasing a dominant Barça raises foul volume further; Barça's own low 1.7/g away is the only offset.
- Tatsächlich
- 1
Es gibt keine Quote zum Vergleich, daher ist dies eine Einschätzung, die für sich bewertet wird.
Kurz gesagt
Barcelona are rightly heavy favourites at 1.22 and nothing in the priced markets offers value, so the play is on the unpriced side: Sevilla kept quiet (under 1.5 team goals) and a card-heavy game under Martínez Munuera.
Mehr Details
Was passiert ist1–3 · 1 von 2 Tipps richtig
Endstand
1–3
Tore
4 (erwartet 3.3)
Ecken
4 (erwartet 8.8)
Karten
1 (erwartet 4.6)
Wir vs die BuchmacherWir liegen überall innerhalb von 4 Punkten der Buchmacher.
| Wir | Buchmacher | Abstand | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sieg Sevilla | 9% | 9% | 0 |
| Unentschieden | 13% | 14% | -1 |
| Sieg FC Barcelona | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Über 1.5 Tore | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Über 2.5 Tore | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Über 3.5 Tore | 53% | 54% | -1 |
| Beide Teams treffen | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Elfmeter im Spiel | 24% | – | – |
| Rote Karte im Spiel | 12% | – | – |
Die Werte der Buchmacher sind ihre Quoten ohne Marge. Ein Abstand von 4 Punkten oder mehr ist hervorgehoben. Die Spalte des Datenanbieters ist dessen eigene Prognose, zur Orientierung.
Erwartete Tore
1.00 – 2.25
Erwartete Ecken
8.8
Erwartete Karten
4.6
Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
1-2 (10%) · 0-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)
Letzte Teamnachrichten (7)Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
2026-09-17Verlässlichkeit: highiusport.com
Barcelona without Frenkie de Jong (knee/meniscus) and Roony Bardghji (torn ACL, long-term).
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: highsportsmole.co.uk
Joan García out/rested after being substituted at half-time vs Racing with a knee issue; Szczesny expected to start in goal.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: mediumeurosport.es
Flick expected to make up to five changes; predicted XI Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsí, Martín, Espart; Fermín, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Raphinha, Adeyemi/Gordon.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla miss Rubén Vargas (knee) and Arouna Sangante (ankle); Lucas Stassin ruled out/doubtful with a muscle-adductor problem.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla coach's pre-match presser: Kike Salas a doubt with a contusion; Marcão still two to three weeks short of match fitness; Cardoso not in plans.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: lowes.soccerway.com
Barcelona arrive on seven straight competitive wins; Yamal has 7 goals in his last 4 La Liga games and Raphinha 11 in 7.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Was schiefgehen könnteConfirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Confirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Whether Kike Salas passes fit
- Identity of Sevilla's current head coach is reported inconsistently across sources
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
- Extent of Flick's rotation before the international break
Die DatenSevillaWWDLWFC BarcelonaWWWWW
Diese Daten hat der Analyst für dieses Spiel bekommen.
| Sevilla | FC Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Tabellenplatz | 5/20 | 1/20 |
| Punkte (Spiele) | 13 (6) | 18 (6) |
| Form | WWDLW | WWWWW |
| Punkte pro Spiel | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Tore für – gegen | 1.1 – 1.1 | 2.4 – 1.0 |
| Erwartete Tore (xG) für – gegen | 1.15 – 0.90 | 2.23 – 1.15 |
| Zu-null-Spiele | 20% | 30% |
| Beide trafen | 60% | 60% |
| Über 2.5 Tore | 40% | 70% |
| Ecken für – gegen | 3.5 – 3.5 | 4.9 – 4.1 |
| Gelbe für – gegen | 3.0 – 2.2 | 1.7 – 1.9 |
| Tage seit dem letzten Spiel | 3 | 3 |
Letzte 10 Spiele: das Heimteam zu Hause, das Gastteam auswärts. Tore und xG sind für–gegen pro Spiel; Ecken und Gelbe Karten ebenso.
Direkter Vergleich
111 Duelle: 21 Heimsiege, 25 Unentschieden, 65 Auswärtssiege · 3.0 Tore pro Spiel.
- 2026-03-15 · FC Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla
- 2025-10-05 · Sevilla 4–1 FC Barcelona
- 2025-02-09 · Sevilla 1–4 FC Barcelona
- 2024-10-20 · FC Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla
- 2024-05-26 · Sevilla 1–2 FC Barcelona
Schiedsrichter
Juan Martinez Munuera (Spain)
Diese Saison: 4.29 Gelbe und 27.0 Fouls pro Spiel in 38 Spielen.
Letzte 10 Spiele: 3.60 Gelbe pro Spiel.
Ausfälle
Sevilla
A. Sangante (injured: Sprained Ankle)
L. Stassin (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
FC Barcelona
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
R. Bardghji (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Aufstellungen: predicted
Buchmacherquoten
Sevilla
10.78
Unentschieden
7.00
FC Barcelona
1.22
Über 2.5 Tore
1.29
Unter 2.5 Tore
3.43
Beide treffen: ja
1.65
Beide treffen: nein
2.15
Durchschnitt mehrerer Buchmacher. Ihre gemeinsame Marge beträgt 5.5%.
Letzte 10 Spiele — Sevilla
| 09-16 | A | Deportivo de A Coruña | 1–0 | W |
| 09-11 | H | Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 09-06 | A | Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | H | Atlético Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 08-22 | A | Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 08-15 | H | Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 05-23 | A | Celta Vigo | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 05-13 | A | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 05-09 | H | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
Letzte 10 Spiele — FC Barcelona
| 09-16 | H | Real Racing Club | 7–2 | W |
| 09-13 | A | Levante UD | 4–2 | W |
| 09-09 | H | Feyenoord | 5–1 | W |
| 09-06 | A | Valencia | 5–0 | W |
| 08-31 | H | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | W |
| 08-27 | H | Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
| 08-23 | A | Elche | 5–0 | W |
| 05-23 | A | Valencia | 1–3 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Real Betis | 3–1 | W |
| 05-13 | A | Deportivo Alavés | 0–1 | L |
Die vollständige AnalyseDie komplette Begründung des Analysten · 2 Min. Lesezeit
(a) Data. Barcelona are 5/5 in La Liga, GD +22, xGF 24.2 vs Sevilla's 6.2, and have won 8 of 10 (2.4 pts/g), scoring 3.7/g overall but a more sober 2.4/g away with xG 2.23. Sevilla are 5th on 13 pts, form WWDLW, but the wins are narrow: at home 1.1 GF and 1.1 GA per game, xG 1.15-0.9, and they have scored ≤1 in 8 of 10 home games. They score late (11 of 14 home goals after 45') and concede early (8 of 11 in the first half) — a bad combination against a side that scored first in 7 of 10 away games. Set pieces: Sevilla home corners only 3.5 for / 3.5 against; Barça away 4.9/4.1 — total lands near 8.5-9, matching Bzzoiro (over 8.5 59.5%). Cards: Sevilla 3.0 yellows/g at home, opponents 2.2 (home totals averaged 5.2); Barça a very low 1.7 away; Munuera runs 4.29 Y/g this season (3.6 last 10) with 27 fouls/g. Penalties: Sevilla have conceded none in 10; Munuera's last 10 produced one scored penalty. H2H is lopsided (8 Barça wins in 10, 3.6 goals/g), though Sevilla won 4-1 at home in Oct 2025.
(b) News. Confirmed: Munuera referees (iusport/101TV). Barça miss De Jong and Bardghji; Joan García is out/rested after his knee issue at half-time vs Racing, Szczesny expected — a mild negative for Barça's defence. Flick is reported to be rotating up to five players, but the attack (Yamal, Raphinha) stays. Sevilla lose Vargas and Stassin, with Kike Salas doubtful — their thin attack gets thinner.
(c) vs market. My numbers (1.0 – 2.25 xG) reproduce the market: away 78%, over 2.5 73%, over 3.5 53%, BTTS 58% — all within 2 pts of the no-margin prices, so no priced edge. Deviation is unwarranted.
(d) Uncertainty. Barça rotation depth, 31°C heat slowing the game, and Sevilla's ability to sit deep (they did hold Barça to 1 goal once). Sevilla's goal timing sample is only 10 games.
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