AS Roma – Inter Prognose
Unsere Tipps
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
Warum dieser Tipp
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- Quote
- 2.49
- Quote entspricht
- 37.6%
- Tatsächlich
- BTTS yes
Unsere Wahrscheinlichkeit liegt über der, die die Quote des Buchmachers ausdrückt – diese Lücke ist der Vorteil.
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)Gewonnen
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- Tatsächlich
- 6
Es gibt keine Quote zum Vergleich, daher ist dies eine Einschätzung, die für sich bewertet wird.
Kurz gesagt
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
Mehr Details
Was passiert ist2–2 · 1 von 2 Tipps richtig
Endstand
2–2
Tore
4 (erwartet 2.8)
Ecken
6 (erwartet 9.2)
Karten
6 (erwartet 4.8)
Wir vs die BuchmacherGrößte Abweichung: Beide Teams treffen — wir 57%, Buchmacher 62%
| Wir | Buchmacher | Abstand | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sieg AS Roma | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Unentschieden | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Sieg Inter | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| Über 1.5 Tore | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Über 2.5 Tore | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Über 3.5 Tore | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| Beide Teams treffen | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| Elfmeter im Spiel | 24% | – | – |
| Rote Karte im Spiel | 12% | – | – |
Die Werte der Buchmacher sind ihre Quoten ohne Marge. Ein Abstand von 4 Punkten oder mehr ist hervorgehoben. Die Spalte des Datenanbieters ist dessen eigene Prognose, zur Orientierung.
Erwartete Tore
1.50 – 1.25
Erwartete Ecken
9.2
Erwartete Karten
4.8
Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Letzte Teamnachrichten (6)Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19Verlässlichkeit: mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19Verlässlichkeit: mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18Verlässlichkeit: mediumcalciomercato.com
Was schiefgehen könnteConfirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
Die DatenAS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
Diese Daten hat der Analyst für dieses Spiel bekommen.
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Tabellenplatz | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| Punkte (Spiele) | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| Form | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| Punkte pro Spiel | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Tore für – gegen | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| Erwartete Tore (xG) für – gegen | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| Zu-null-Spiele | 60% | 40% |
| Beide trafen | 40% | 50% |
| Über 2.5 Tore | 70% | 50% |
| Ecken für – gegen | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| Gelbe für – gegen | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| Tage seit dem letzten Spiel | 5 | 5 |
Letzte 10 Spiele: das Heimteam zu Hause, das Gastteam auswärts. Tore und xG sind für–gegen pro Spiel; Ecken und Gelbe Karten ebenso.
Direkter Vergleich
131 Duelle: 37 Heimsiege, 42 Unentschieden, 52 Auswärtssiege · 3.0 Tore pro Spiel.
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
Schiedsrichter
Davide Massa (Italy)
Diese Saison: 3.92 Gelbe und 25.7 Fouls pro Spiel in 39 Spielen.
Letzte 10 Spiele: 4.50 Gelbe pro Spiel.
Ausfälle
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
Aufstellungen: predicted
Buchmacherquoten
AS Roma
2.61
Unentschieden
3.45
Inter
2.57
Über 2.5 Tore
1.60
Unter 2.5 Tore
2.35
Beide treffen: ja
1.50
Beide treffen: nein
2.49
Durchschnitt mehrerer Buchmacher. Ihre gemeinsame Marge beträgt 6.2%.
Letzte 10 Spiele — AS Roma
| 09-14 | A | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | A | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | A | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | H | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | A | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
Letzte 10 Spiele — Inter
| 09-14 | H | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | A | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | H | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | A | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | H | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | A | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | H | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | A | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | A | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | H | Parma | 2–0 | W |
Die vollständige AnalyseDie komplette Begründung des Analysten · 2 Min. Lesezeit
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
Analysiert von opus mit Webrecherche.