Thame United vs Exmouth Town 预测
我们的推荐
Total goals
over 1.5 goals
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
为什么推荐
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
Every one of Thame United's three recorded games produced at least four goals, and they have conceded in all of them. Exmouth Town scored three at Thame on Saturday and have found the net in two of three, all after half-time. Two leaky defences and a tie that already produced six goals; only a genuinely cagey replay gets under this line.
- 实际
- 4
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
64%Both teams to scoreyes命中
Thame have scored and conceded in every game in the window (100% both-score rate) and Exmouth shipped three at Thame on Saturday. Exmouth's home quality should get them a goal against a step-four defence, while Thame have shown they can hurt them. Below my usual 58% comfort only on sample size, but the rate signals line up.
- 实际
- BTTS yes
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
62%Total goalsover 2.5 goals命中
Two independent signals: Thame have scored exactly three in each of their last two games and conceded 2.67 per game, with five of six goals against arriving after half-time; Exmouth are a division higher and score heavily in the second half, all five of their recorded goals coming from the 46th minute on. Expected total around 3.2.
- 实际
- 4
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Goals again in the replay: six last week, both defences soft. Back over 2.5.
- 1First tie finished 3-3; Thame have scored three in two straight games
- 2Replay is actually at Exmouth, who play a division higher
- 3Thame have conceded in every game, Exmouth in two of three
深入了解
比赛结果3–1 · 3 条推荐中 3 条命中
最终比分
3–1
进球
4 (我们预计 3.2)
角球
– (我们预计 10.5)
牌数
0 (我们预计 3.5)
我们 vs 博彩公司我们对这场比赛的全部概率。
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thame United 胜 | 23% | – | – |
| 平局 | 24% | – | – |
| Exmouth Town 胜 | 53% | – | – |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 84% | – | – |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 62% | – | – |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 40% | – | – |
| 双方都进球 | 64% | – | – |
| 比赛出现点球 | 26% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 10% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.35 – 1.85
预期角球
10.5
预期牌数
3.5
最可能的比分
2-1 Exmouth (12%) · 1-1 (11%) · 2-0 Exmouth (9%)
最新球队消息（6）The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is…
The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is reversed.
2026-09-19可靠性：highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Exmouth Town are unbeaten in the league with three wins after an opening draw at Bideford; they face Dorchester away on Saturday and Weymouth next Wednesday.
2026-09-19可靠性：highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth Town won 2-1 at Barnstaple Town the previous Tuesday — a third competitive game in nine days going into the replay.
2026-09-19可靠性：highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth's XI on Saturday: Wonnacott, Belsten, Cann, Edwards, Morison, Landricombe, Knowles, Denny, Slater, Steer, Bath; no injuries or suspensions reported.
2026-09-19可靠性：mediumexmouth-townfc.co.uk
A penalty was awarded and converted by Tom Bath in the first tie, and Ross Edwards equalised in the 94th minute from an Owen Johnson corner.
2026-09-19可靠性：highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Thame United's scorers in the first tie were Jack Tutton, Harry Alexander and Greg Hackett.
2026-09-19可靠性：highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
可能出错的地方A cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
A cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
未能核实的内容
- Referee appointment
- Thame United injury/suspension list and expected XI
- Whether Exmouth rotate ahead of Saturday's league trip to Dorchester
- Any corner, card, shot or possession data for either club
- Weather and pitch conditions
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Thame United | Exmouth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 2.3 – 2.7 | 1.5 – 1.5 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | – – – | – – – |
| 零封 | 0% | 50% |
| 双方都进球 | 100% | 50% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 100% | 50% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | – – – | – – – |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 0.0 – 0.0 | 0.0 – 0.0 |
| 距上一场天数 | 4 | 4 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
1 次交锋：主胜 0、平 1、客胜 0 · 场均 6.0 球。
- 2026-09-19 · Thame United 3–3 Exmouth Town
缺阵
Thame United
无报告
Exmouth Town
无报告
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 –%。
近 10 场 — Thame United
| 09-19 | 主 | Exmouth Town | 3–3 | D |
| 09-05 | 主 | Reading City | 3–2 | W |
| 10-01 | 主 | Oxford City | 1–3 | L |
近 10 场 — Exmouth Town
| 09-19 | 客 | Thame United | 3–3 | D |
| 09-09 | 主 | Banbury United | 2–1 | W |
| 09-05 | 客 | Banbury United | 0–0 | D |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
Exmouth Town host this replay a division above Thame and should edge it, but with both defences leaking the goals markets are the cleaner play — back over 2.5.
## Data
Tiny samples: three games each, no shots, corners, cards or possession. Thame United have scored three in each of their last two (3-3, 3-2) but conceded 2.67 per game; every game in the window went over 3.5 and every one saw both score. Their goals against cluster late: 5 of 6 after half-time, three in the 61-90 window. Exmouth Town are steadier (1-2-0, 1.67 for, 1.33 against) and score almost exclusively after the break — all five recorded goals came from the 46th minute on, none in the first half. The one meeting, four days ago, was 3-3 with Exmouth equalising at 90+4. No cards or penalties are recorded in the feed for either side, and the referee is not announced.
## News
The pack has the venue the wrong way round: the replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local Stadium, 19:45 local, not at Thame. Exmouth are a division above (Southern League Premier South — their fixture list has Dorchester and Weymouth), unbeaten in the league with three wins and an opening draw at Bideford. Their reported XI from Saturday was full strength, with Wonnacott in goal and Bath, Steer and Edwards scoring; no injuries or suspensions reported. Exmouth do face a third game in nine days and Dorchester away on Saturday, so some rotation is possible. Thame's goals came from Tutton, Alexander and Hackett.
## Market
No prices in the pack. On level and venue I make Exmouth around 53%, draw 24%, Thame 23% — a modest favourite, not a strong one, since Thame already matched them for 90 minutes. That gap is too small to back at an unknown price. The goals case is firmer: 3.2 total expected, over 2.5 near 62%, over 1.5 near 84%, both scoring around 64%.
## Uncertainties
No corner, card or shot data at all, referee unknown, and a replay can be tighter than the original. Rotation by Exmouth with a league trip on Saturday is the main unmodelled risk.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。