Farnborough vs Uxbridge 预测
我们的推荐
Team goals
Farnborough over 0.5 goals
Farnborough blank in under a third of home games and face lower-division opponents.
为什么推荐
Farnborough blank in under a third of home games and face lower-division opponents.
Farnborough failed to score in only 29% of their last seven home games and average 1.29 goals there, and they are a division above Uxbridge with home advantage in a replay they are expected to win. They found the net at Uxbridge on Friday despite a poor overall run, and have added a loan striker from Luton to the attacking options. Uxbridge's defensive record (one clean sheet in two games, against a far weaker opponent) offers no evidence of a side that shuts out step-two opposition away from home.
- 实际
- 0
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
77%Total goalsover 1.5 goals命中
Two independent signals point the same way. Farnborough cleared 1.5 goals in 86% of their last seven home games and 90% of their last ten overall, conceding 1.14 per home game while scoring 1.29 — they are rarely involved in tight, low-event matches at this ground. Uxbridge, in their two recorded games, went over 1.5 both times, scored first in both and average 2.5 goals for. The tie itself produced four goals three days ago, with the sides trading blows from the fourth minute onwards. Both teams also carry a heavy late-goal pattern (Farnborough: three of their recorded goals for and three against in the 76-90 window), which keeps the match live even if it starts slowly.
- 实际
- 2
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Back at least two goals: the first meeting had four, and both attacks keep scoring.
- 1First meeting finished 2-2, with goals at both ends
- 2Farnborough are a division higher and at home, but out of form
- 3Home price at 1.36 matches our own number, so no edge
深入了解
比赛结果0–2 · 2 条推荐中 1 条命中
最终比分
0–2
进球
2 (我们预计 2.8)
角球
– (我们预计 9.5)
牌数
2 (我们预计 3.5)
我们 vs 博彩公司在所有项目上，我们与博彩公司的差距都在 4 个百分点以内。
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farnborough 胜 | 64% | 66% | -2 |
| 平局 | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Uxbridge 胜 | 17% | 16% | +1 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 77% | – | – |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 53% | – | – |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 30% | – | – |
| 双方都进球 | 54% | – | – |
| 比赛出现点球 | 18% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 9% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.60 – 1.20
预期角球
9.5
预期牌数
3.5
最可能的比分
2-1 (12%) · 1-1 (11%) · 2-0 (10%)
最新球队消息（7）First tie finished Uxbridge 2-2 Farnborough on 19 September; Nnadozie and Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, Michael Reindorf…
First tie finished Uxbridge 2-2 Farnborough on 19 September; Nnadozie and Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, Michael Reindorf equalised deep in stoppage time.
2026-09-19可靠性：highthenonleaguefootballpaper.com
Replay is at Farnborough's Saunders Transport Community Stadium, Tuesday 22 September, 19:45 UK; winner faces Hungerford Town in Qualifying Round 3.
2026-09-21可靠性：highfarnboroughfc.co.uk
Farnborough have signed 19-year-old striker Tate Xavier-Jones on loan from Luton Town, adding attacking options.
2026-09-01可靠性：mediumfarnboroughfc.co.uk
Farnborough lost 0-1 at home to Salisbury in National League South on 12 September, underlining poor recent league form.
2026-09-12可靠性：mediumfootballwebpages.co.uk
Uxbridge compete in the Southern League Premier South, one step below Farnborough's National League South.
2026-09-22可靠性：mediumfootballwebpages.co.uk
Uxbridge are running a supporters' coach to Farnborough, departing 5pm — short midweek trip, no unusual travel burden.
2026-09-21可靠性：highuxbridgefc.com
Farnborough issued a statement that a prospective full buyer has not advanced proceedings; the club is seeking sale or investment.
2026-09-01可靠性：mediumfarnboroughfc.co.uk
可能出错的地方A cagey replay with extra time looming: one early goal and a shut-down second half.
A cagey replay with extra time looming: one early goal and a shut-down second half.
未能核实的内容
- No referee appointment found for the replay
- No injury or suspension list published by either club
- No probable line-ups; rotation intentions unknown
- Uxbridge's 2026-27 league results and away form could not be retrieved (site returned 403)
- No corner, shot or foul data exists for either side in the pack
- Weather for the evening kickoff not verified
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Farnborough | Uxbridge | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 1.1 | – |
| 进球 – 失球 | 1.3 – 1.1 | – – – |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | – – – | – – – |
| 零封 | 43% | – |
| 双方都进球 | 43% | – |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 43% | – |
| 角球 得 – 失 | – – – | – – – |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | – – – | – – – |
| 距上一场天数 | 3 | 3 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
1 次交锋：主胜 0、平 1、客胜 0 · 场均 4.0 球。
- 2026-09-19 · Uxbridge 2–2 Farnborough
缺阵
Farnborough
无报告
Uxbridge
无报告
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
Farnborough
1.36
平局
5.00
Uxbridge
5.75
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 10.9%。
近 10 场 — Farnborough
| 09-19 | 客 | Uxbridge | 2–2 | D |
| 11-26 | 客 | Wrexham | 1–4 | L |
| 11-05 | 客 | Sutton United | 2–0 | W |
| 10-01 | 主 | Eastbourne Borough FC | 0–2 | L |
| 09-28 | 客 | Eastbourne Borough FC | 0–0 | D |
| 09-22 | 主 | Eastleigh | 1–2 | L |
| 10-05 | 主 | Maidenhead United | 2–3 | L |
| 10-01 | 客 | Maidenhead United | 1–1 | D |
| 10-26 | 客 | Dover Athletic | 0–5 | L |
| 10-23 | 主 | Dover Athletic | 1–1 | D |
近 10 场 — Uxbridge
| 09-19 | 主 | Farnborough | 2–2 | D |
| 09-05 | 主 | Haywards Heath Town | 3–0 | W |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
Farnborough should edge this FA Cup replay at home, but the price is fair — the real value is in goals, with both sides scoring freely in a 2-2 first meeting.
## Data
Farnborough's 10-game window is a patchwork reaching back into earlier seasons (1-4-5, 0.7 pts/g, 1.0 goals for, 2.0 against) — treat it as noisy. The venue split is more useful: 2-2-3 at home, 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded per game, failed to score only 29% of the time, over 1.5 goals in 86% of home games and 90% of the last ten overall. Uxbridge have only two games in the feed (2.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game, scored first in both) and zero away history — essentially no away baseline. Timing is late-heavy on both sides: Farnborough's goals for cluster 76-90 (3 of 5 recorded) and so do their goals against (3). Corners, shots, fouls and possession are all missing; cards are close to nil in the recorded games and the referee is not announced, so card and corner markets are unplayable here.
## News
The Non-League Paper's report on the 19 September 2-2 confirms Toby Nnadozie and Mason Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, with Michael Reindorf rescuing Farnborough deep into stoppage time — an open, end-to-end tie. Farnborough's own site confirms the 19:45 UK replay and the reward: Hungerford Town in Qualifying Round 3. Farnborough have added striker Tate Xavier-Jones on loan from Luton. No injury or suspension news surfaced for either side; the club is also publicly seeking a sale, a background distraction rather than a team-sheet factor. Uxbridge sit one step below Farnborough (Southern League Premier South v National League South), a smaller gap than the replay format suggests.
## Market
1.36 on the home side implies 66.3% with margin removed; my number is 64%, so no bet there. The draw and away prices look fairly struck too. The goals markets are unpriced in the pack, which is where I lean: a 2.8-goal expectation puts over 1.5 near 77% and Farnborough to score near 78%.
## Uncertainty
Uxbridge's sample is two games. Replay caution and extra time looming can flatten the second half.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。