CA Lanús vs Estudiantes de La Plata 预测
我们的推荐
Total goals
under 2.5 goals
Lanús home games went over 2.5 once in 10 (0.8 GF/0.5 GA, 70% clean sheets); Estudiantes away 10% over 2.5 with 0.81 xG per away game, and they arrive fatigued from Brazil with a partial…
为什么推荐
Lanús home games went over 2.5 once in 10 (0.8 GF/0.5 GA, 70% clean sheets); Estudiantes away 10% over 2.5 with 0.81 xG per away game, and they arrive fatigued from Brazil with a partial rotation and the Flamengo semi ahead. Rain, too.
- 赔率
- 1.44
- 赔率隐含
- 65.2%
- 实际
- 3
我们的概率高于博彩公司赔率所隐含的概率——这个差距就是优势。
64%Both teams to scoreno未中
BTTS landed in 2 of Lanús' 10 home games and 1 of Estudiantes' 10 away games; Estudiantes failed to score in 50% of away trips (3.5 SoT/g) and are missing Correa and Alario up front.
- 赔率
- 1.58
- 赔率隐含
- 58.9%
- 实际
- BTTS yes
我们的概率高于博彩公司赔率所隐含的概率——这个差距就是优势。
63%Total cardsover 4.5 total cards (both teams)未中
Two independent signals: Ramírez books 5.76/g this season (5.1 last 10, 24.7 fouls/g, 0.33 R/g), and Estudiantes average 3.0 yellows (3.5 away) on 14 fouls/g against a Lanús side on 2.2 at home — combined baseline ~5.5-5.7 in a tight, rain-affected league game.
- 实际
- 4
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Low-scoring, tight game at La Fortaleza: back under 2.5 goals and BTTS no, plus cards over 4.5 given Ramírez's high whistle and Estudiantes' foul rate.
深入了解
比赛结果2–1 · 3 条推荐中 0 条命中
最终比分
2–1
进球
3 (我们预计 1.9)
角球
9 (我们预计 9.2)
牌数
4 (我们预计 5.7)
我们 vs 博彩公司最大分歧：双方都进球 — 我们 36%，博彩公司 41%
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Lanús 胜 | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| 平局 | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| Estudiantes de La Plata 胜 | 25% | 27% | -2 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 57% | 61% | -4 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 30% | 35% | -5 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 13% | 17% | -4 |
| 双方都进球 | 36% | 41% | -5 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 22% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 21% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.15 – 0.75
预期角球
9.2
预期牌数
5.7
最可能的比分
1-0 (15%) · 1-1 (12%) · 0-0 (11%)
最新球队消息（8）Referee confirmed as Nicolás Ramírez, VAR Sebastián Bresba; kickoff 21:15 local at Estadio Néstor Díaz Pérez, ESPN Premium.
Referee confirmed as Nicolás Ramírez, VAR Sebastián Bresba; kickoff 21:15 local at Estadio Néstor Díaz Pérez, ESPN Premium.
2026-09-21可靠性：medium0221.com.ar
Probable Lanús XI: Losada; G. Pérez, Izquierdoz, Canale, Marcich; Peña Biafore, Cardozo; Sepúlveda, Salvio, Besozzi; Wlk — i.e. a near-full side (note: pack lists Canale as absent).
2026-09-21可靠性：medium0221.com.ar
Probable Estudiantes XI: Muslera; Mancuso, Núñez, González Pírez, Palacios; B. Rodríguez, Piovi, Castro; F. Pérez, Carrillo, Tobio Burgos.
2026-09-21可靠性：medium0221.com.ar
Medina will make a partial rotation at Lanús, resting only players not physically fresh after a heavy run; Joaquín Correa out with a muscle injury.
2026-09-21可靠性：mediuminfocielo.com
Estudiantes beat Corinthians 1-0 in Brazil on 17 Sep (2-1 aggregate) to reach the Libertadores semifinal, where they face Flamengo — a clear competing priority.
2026-09-17可靠性：highlanacion.com.ar
Tomás Palacios and Leandro González Pírez hit the yellow-card threshold in Brazil and are suspended for the Libertadores semifinal (not for this league match).
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumelintransigente.com
Lucas Alario suffered a grade-2 right hamstring tear, out roughly three weeks.
2026-09-08可靠性：mediumlaplata1.com
Estudiantes sit 11th in Zone A with 10 points and need points for a playoff spot — some league motivation remains.
2026-09-21可靠性：mediuminfocielo.com
可能出错的地方Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available)
- Exactly which Estudiantes starters will be rested
- Lanús injury update — previews name Canale in the XI while the pack lists him as absent
- Any bookmaker prices for corners/cards
- Precise match-time weather beyond the pack's 'rain, 16C'
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| CA Lanús | Estudiantes de La Plata | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 0.8 – 0.5 | 0.8 – 0.8 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 1.45 – 0.61 | 0.81 – 1.27 |
| 零封 | 70% | 40% |
| 双方都进球 | 20% | 10% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 10% | 10% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 6.9 – 3.5 | 2.8 – 4.3 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 2.2 – 2.1 | 3.5 – 1.9 |
| 距上一场天数 | 8 | 5 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
24 次交锋：主胜 7、平 10、客胜 7 · 场均 1.7 球。
- 2026-03-13 · Estudiantes de La Plata 0–1 CA Lanús
- 2024-05-25 · CA Lanús 2–1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 2023-02-13 · Estudiantes de La Plata 0–2 CA Lanús
- 2022-10-10 · Estudiantes de La Plata 3–1 CA Lanús
- 2021-11-06 · CA Lanús 1–1 Estudiantes de La Plata
裁判
Nicolas Ramirez (Argentina)
本赛季：42 场比赛，场均 5.76 张黄牌、24.7 次犯规。
近 10 场：场均 5.10 张黄牌。
缺阵
CA Lanús
J. Canale (injured: national_team)
L. Romero (injured: Hamstring Injury)
M. Moreno (injured: Foot Injury)
R. Carrera (injured: Muscle Injury)
Estudiantes de La Plata
J. Correa (injured: Muscle Injury)
L. Alario (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Funes Mori (injured: Thigh Injury)
S. Arzamendia (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
T. Palacios (injured: Muscle Injury)
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
CA Lanús
2.20
平局
3.00
Estudiantes de La Plata
3.50
大于 2.5 球
2.70
小于 2.5 球
1.44
双方进球：是
2.26
双方进球：否
1.58
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 7.4%。
近 10 场 — CA Lanús
| 09-14 | 客 | Deportivo Riestra | 3–0 | W |
| 09-06 | 主 | Defensa y Justicia | 1–0 | W |
| 08-29 | 客 | Boca Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 08-25 | 主 | Argentinos Juniors | 1–1 | D |
| 08-17 | 主 | CA Independiente | 1–3 | L |
| 08-12 | 客 | CA Talleres | 3–0 | W |
| 08-06 | 客 | Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe | 1–2 | L |
| 08-03 | 主 | Instituto De Córdoba | 0–1 | L |
| 07-30 | 客 | Cienciano | 0–4 | L |
| 07-26 | 主 | San Lorenzo | 1–0 | W |
近 10 场 — Estudiantes de La Plata
| 09-17 | 客 | Corinthians | 1–0 | W |
| 09-12 | 主 | Club Atlético Platense | 2–1 | W |
| 09-10 | 主 | Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
| 09-06 | 客 | Vélez Sarsfield | 0–1 | L |
| 08-31 | 主 | Newell's Old Boys | 0–0 | D |
| 08-23 | 客 | Sarmiento | 0–2 | L |
| 08-19 | 客 | Universidad Católica | 3–0 | W |
| 08-15 | 主 | Gimnasia y Esgrima | 4–0 | W |
| 08-12 | 主 | Universidad Católica | 1–1 | D |
| 08-08 | 客 | Deportivo Riestra | 0–2 | L |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
(a) Data. Lanús at home are ultra-stingy: 0.8 GF / 0.5 GA, 70% clean sheets, BTTS 20%, over 2.5 in only 1 of 10 home games (xG 1.45-0.61). They score late: 5 of 8 home goals after the 60th minute. Estudiantes away are equally sterile: 0.8/0.8, failed to score 50%, over 2.5 10%, BTTS 10%, away xG 0.81-1.27, 3.5 shots on target per away game. H2H is Lanús-leaning (5W-4D-1L in 10) and low-scoring. Corners: Lanús home 6.9-3.5 (10.4 total) vs Estudiantes away 2.8-4.3 (7.1 total) → blend ≈9. Cards: Estudiantes 3.0 Y/g (3.5 away) on 14 fouls/g, Lanús 2.2 at home; referee Nicolás Ramírez averages 5.76 Y/g this season, 5.1 in his last 10, 24.7 fouls/g, 0.33 R/g. No penalty for either side in their last 10 (Estudiantes conceded one).
(b) News. Ramírez confirmed as referee. Estudiantes arrive 5 days after eliminating Corinthians in Brazil (4 games in 21 days); Medina plans a partial rotation, resting worn players. Correa is out (muscle), Alario ~3 weeks. The Libertadores semi vs Flamengo is the clear priority, and González Pírez/Palacios are suspended for it — a conservative league outing is likely. Lanús had 8 days' rest and no competing fixture; previews name a near-full XI (Salvio, Wlk, Besozzi) and, contrary to the pack, include Canale.
(c) Market. 42.3/31.0/26.6 looks fair; my 45/30/25 sits inside noise, so no 1X2 bet. Goals is where the venue splits bite: both profiles point to ~1.9 expected total and ~30% over 2.5, under the 34.8% priced; BTTS no likewise (I have ~64% vs 58.9%). Rain and a fatigued away side reinforce the under.
(d) Uncertainty. The depth of Estudiantes' rotation is unconfirmed — a weakened XI could also leak goals. Lanús score late, so 2-1 stays live. Samples are 10 games and the two goals picks are correlated: they are one view, not two.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。