Sevilla vs FC Barcelona 预测
我们的推荐
Team total goals - Sevilla
Sevilla under 1.5 goals
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g).
为什么推荐
Sevilla scored 0 or 1 in 8 of their last 10 home games (1.1 GF/g, xGF 1.15) and Barcelona conceded 0-1 in 8 of 10 away games (1.0 GA/g). Sevilla also lose Vargas and Stassin from an already low-volume attack.
- 实际
- 1
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
70%Total cards (yellows + reds, both teams)over 3.5 total cards未中
Two independent signals: Sevilla's home games averaged 5.2 total yellows (3.0 for, 2.2 against) with 14.6 fouls/g, and referee Martínez Munuera runs 4.29 yellows and 27 fouls per game this season. Sevilla chasing a dominant Barça raises foul volume further; Barça's own low 1.7/g away is the only offset.
- 实际
- 1
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Barcelona are rightly heavy favourites at 1.22 and nothing in the priced markets offers value, so the play is on the unpriced side: Sevilla kept quiet (under 1.5 team goals) and a card-heavy game under Martínez Munuera.
深入了解
比赛结果1–3 · 2 条推荐中 1 条命中
最终比分
1–3
进球
4 (我们预计 3.3)
角球
4 (我们预计 8.8)
牌数
1 (我们预计 4.6)
我们 vs 博彩公司在所有项目上，我们与博彩公司的差距都在 4 个百分点以内。
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla 胜 | 9% | 9% | 0 |
| 平局 | 13% | 14% | -1 |
| FC Barcelona 胜 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 53% | 54% | -1 |
| 双方都进球 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 24% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 12% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.00 – 2.25
预期角球
8.8
预期牌数
4.6
最可能的比分
1-2 (10%) · 0-2 (9%) · 0-1 (8%)
最新球队消息（7）Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
Juan Martínez Munuera confirmed as referee for Sevilla-Barcelona, with Raúl Martín González on VAR.
2026-09-17可靠性：highiusport.com
Barcelona without Frenkie de Jong (knee/meniscus) and Roony Bardghji (torn ACL, long-term).
2026-09-18可靠性：highsportsmole.co.uk
Joan García out/rested after being substituted at half-time vs Racing with a knee issue; Szczesny expected to start in goal.
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumeurosport.es
Flick expected to make up to five changes; predicted XI Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsí, Martín, Espart; Fermín, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Raphinha, Adeyemi/Gordon.
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla miss Rubén Vargas (knee) and Arouna Sangante (ankle); Lucas Stassin ruled out/doubtful with a muscle-adductor problem.
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Sevilla coach's pre-match presser: Kike Salas a doubt with a contusion; Marcão still two to three weeks short of match fitness; Cardoso not in plans.
2026-09-18可靠性：lowes.soccerway.com
Barcelona arrive on seven straight competitive wins; Yamal has 7 goals in his last 4 La Liga games and Raphinha 11 in 7.
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
可能出错的地方Confirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Confirmed XIs (only predicted lineups available)
- Whether Kike Salas passes fit
- Identity of Sevilla's current head coach is reported inconsistently across sources
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
- Extent of Flick's rotation before the international break
数据SevillaWWDLWFC BarcelonaWWWWW
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Sevilla | FC Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| 积分榜排名 | 5/20 | 1/20 |
| 积分（场次） | 13 (6) | 18 (6) |
| 近期状态 | WWDLW | WWWWW |
| 场均积分 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 1.1 – 1.1 | 2.4 – 1.0 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 1.15 – 0.90 | 2.23 – 1.15 |
| 零封 | 20% | 30% |
| 双方都进球 | 60% | 60% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 40% | 70% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 3.5 – 3.5 | 4.9 – 4.1 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 3.0 – 2.2 | 1.7 – 1.9 |
| 距上一场天数 | 3 | 3 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
111 次交锋：主胜 21、平 25、客胜 65 · 场均 3.0 球。
- 2026-03-15 · FC Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla
- 2025-10-05 · Sevilla 4–1 FC Barcelona
- 2025-02-09 · Sevilla 1–4 FC Barcelona
- 2024-10-20 · FC Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla
- 2024-05-26 · Sevilla 1–2 FC Barcelona
裁判
Juan Martinez Munuera (Spain)
本赛季：38 场比赛，场均 4.29 张黄牌、27.0 次犯规。
近 10 场：场均 3.60 张黄牌。
缺阵
Sevilla
A. Sangante (injured: Sprained Ankle)
L. Stassin (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
FC Barcelona
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
R. Bardghji (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
Sevilla
10.78
平局
7.00
FC Barcelona
1.22
大于 2.5 球
1.29
小于 2.5 球
3.43
双方进球：是
1.65
双方进球：否
2.15
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 5.5%。
近 10 场 — Sevilla
| 09-16 | 客 | Deportivo de A Coruña | 1–0 | W |
| 09-11 | 主 | Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 09-06 | 客 | Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | 主 | Atlético Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 08-22 | 客 | Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 08-15 | 主 | Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 05-23 | 客 | Celta Vigo | 0–1 | L |
| 05-17 | 主 | Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 05-13 | 客 | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 05-09 | 主 | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
近 10 场 — FC Barcelona
| 09-16 | 主 | Real Racing Club | 7–2 | W |
| 09-13 | 客 | Levante UD | 4–2 | W |
| 09-09 | 主 | Feyenoord | 5–1 | W |
| 09-06 | 客 | Valencia | 5–0 | W |
| 08-31 | 主 | Rayo Vallecano | 5–2 | W |
| 08-27 | 主 | Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
| 08-23 | 客 | Elche | 5–0 | W |
| 05-23 | 客 | Valencia | 1–3 | L |
| 05-17 | 主 | Real Betis | 3–1 | W |
| 05-13 | 客 | Deportivo Alavés | 0–1 | L |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
(a) Data. Barcelona are 5/5 in La Liga, GD +22, xGF 24.2 vs Sevilla's 6.2, and have won 8 of 10 (2.4 pts/g), scoring 3.7/g overall but a more sober 2.4/g away with xG 2.23. Sevilla are 5th on 13 pts, form WWDLW, but the wins are narrow: at home 1.1 GF and 1.1 GA per game, xG 1.15-0.9, and they have scored ≤1 in 8 of 10 home games. They score late (11 of 14 home goals after 45') and concede early (8 of 11 in the first half) — a bad combination against a side that scored first in 7 of 10 away games. Set pieces: Sevilla home corners only 3.5 for / 3.5 against; Barça away 4.9/4.1 — total lands near 8.5-9, matching Bzzoiro (over 8.5 59.5%). Cards: Sevilla 3.0 yellows/g at home, opponents 2.2 (home totals averaged 5.2); Barça a very low 1.7 away; Munuera runs 4.29 Y/g this season (3.6 last 10) with 27 fouls/g. Penalties: Sevilla have conceded none in 10; Munuera's last 10 produced one scored penalty. H2H is lopsided (8 Barça wins in 10, 3.6 goals/g), though Sevilla won 4-1 at home in Oct 2025.
(b) News. Confirmed: Munuera referees (iusport/101TV). Barça miss De Jong and Bardghji; Joan García is out/rested after his knee issue at half-time vs Racing, Szczesny expected — a mild negative for Barça's defence. Flick is reported to be rotating up to five players, but the attack (Yamal, Raphinha) stays. Sevilla lose Vargas and Stassin, with Kike Salas doubtful — their thin attack gets thinner.
(c) vs market. My numbers (1.0 – 2.25 xG) reproduce the market: away 78%, over 2.5 73%, over 3.5 53%, BTTS 58% — all within 2 pts of the no-margin prices, so no priced edge. Deviation is unwarranted.
(d) Uncertainty. Barça rotation depth, 31°C heat slowing the game, and Sevilla's ability to sit deep (they did hold Barça to 1 goal once). Sevilla's goal timing sample is only 10 games.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。