Liechtenstein vs Lithuania 预测
Liechtenstein
Lithuania我们的推荐
Goals over/under 2.5
under 2.5 goals
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
为什么推荐
Liechtenstein barely score and Lithuania win by small margins; about two goals expected, not three.
Liechtenstein scored 1 goal in 10 games (0.31 chances-created value per game), and only 3 of their last 10 home games had 3+ goals. Every home loss to comparable sides ended 0-2. Lithuania average 0.4 away goals and 4 of their last 10 away games went over 2.5. With about 2.0 expected total goals, a Poisson model gives about 64% for under 2.5 against 54.9% no-margin implied. Rain and a key midfield absence for Lithuania also point to a low total.
- 赔率
- 1.71
- 赔率隐含
- 54.9%
- 实际
- 2
我们的概率高于博彩公司赔率所隐含的概率——这个差距就是优势。
简而言之
Back under 2.5 goals: Liechtenstein almost never score and Lithuania's attack is weak.
- 1Liechtenstein failed to score in nine of their last ten games.
- 2Lithuania average 0.7 goals a game and lost midfielder Magdušauskas to injury.
- 3We give under 2.5 goals 64%; the price implies about 55%.
深入了解
比赛结果0–2 · 1 条推荐中 1 条命中
最终比分
0–2
进球
2 (我们预计 2.0)
角球
8 (我们预计 8.2)
牌数
2 (我们预计 4.4)
我们 vs 博彩公司最大分歧：大于 2.5 球 — 我们 36%，博彩公司 45%
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liechtenstein 胜 | 9% | 8% | +1 |
| 平局 | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Lithuania 胜 | 69% | 73% | -4 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 61% | 69% | -8 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 36% | 45% | -9 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 16% | 25% | -9 |
| 双方都进球 | 31% | 34% | -3 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 22% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 12% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
0.45 – 1.55
预期角球
8.2
预期牌数
4.4
最可能的比分
0-1 (18%) · 0-2 (15%) · 1-1 (10%)
最新球队消息（5）Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June…
Liechtenstein have no reported injuries; goalkeeper Benjamin Büchel and captain Nicolas Hasler return after missing June; predicted XI named.
2026-09-22可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Liechtenstein lost June 2026 friendlies to Andorra and Cyprus; one win in four fixtures this year (friendlies not in the pack).
2026-09-22可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Lithuania: no fresh injuries per preview; Kucys and Gineitis available; lost Baltic Cup final 1-0 to Estonia.
2026-09-22可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas is out injured; coach Jankauskas regrets the loss and says Lithuania must prove their favourite status.
2026-09-23可靠性：highregionuzinios.lt
Lithuania's 26-man squad recalls Slivka, Dolžnikov, Steponavičius, Ruzgis, Kazukolovas, Gertmonas and Širvys; Lithuania host Azerbaijan on 27 September.
2026-09可靠性：highlrt.lt
可能出错的地方Liechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
Liechtenstein's defence collapses after half-time, as against Belgium, and Lithuania score three or more.
未能核实的内容
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Liechtenstein injury news from a club/federation source
- Pitch condition after rain
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Liechtenstein | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 0.1 – 2.3 | 0.4 – 1.6 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 0.43 – 2.16 | 0.86 – 1.45 |
| 零封 | 10% | 20% |
| 双方都进球 | 10% | 30% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 30% | 40% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 0.8 – 7.5 | 1.8 – 5.8 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 2.7 – 1.7 | 2.6 – 2.1 |
| 距上一场天数 | 310 | 311 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
2 次交锋：主胜 0、平 0、客胜 2 · 场均 2.0 球。
- 2013-09-10 · Lithuania 2–0 Liechtenstein
- 2012-10-12 · Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
裁判
Ante Čulina (Croatia)
本赛季：2 场比赛，场均 4.50 张黄牌、25.0 次犯规。
近 2 场：场均 4.50 张黄牌。
缺阵
Liechtenstein
无报告
Lithuania
无报告
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
Liechtenstein
11.40
平局
4.86
Lithuania
1.29
大于 2.5 球
2.08
小于 2.5 球
1.71
双方进球：是
2.73
双方进球：否
1.41
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 6.9%。
近 10 场 — Liechtenstein
| 11-18 | 客 | Belgium | 0–7 | L |
| 11-15 | 主 | Wales | 0–1 | L |
| 10-10 | 客 | Kazakhstan | 0–4 | L |
| 09-07 | 客 | North Macedonia | 0–5 | L |
| 09-04 | 主 | Belgium | 0–6 | L |
| 06-06 | 客 | Wales | 0–3 | L |
| 03-25 | 主 | Kazakhstan | 0–2 | L |
| 03-22 | 主 | North Macedonia | 0–3 | L |
| 11-18 | 主 | San Marino | 1–3 | L |
| 10-13 | 主 | Gibraltar | 0–0 | D |
近 10 场 — Lithuania
| 11-17 | 客 | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 10-12 | 主 | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 10-09 | 客 | Finland | 1–2 | L |
| 09-07 | 主 | Netherlands | 2–3 | L |
| 09-04 | 主 | Malta | 1–1 | D |
| 06-07 | 客 | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | 主 | Finland | 2–2 | D |
| 03-21 | 客 | Poland | 0–1 | L |
| 11-18 | 客 | Kosovo | 0–1 | L |
| 11-15 | 客 | Cyprus | 1–2 | L |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
Lithuania should beat Liechtenstein, but two sides that rarely score in a rainy, low-event opener point to under 2.5 goals.
Data (pack). Liechtenstein are 0-1-9 over their last 10 games with 0.1 goals scored per game, and they failed to score in 90% of them. Their chances created add up to 0.31 a game, from 2.4 shots. At home they concede 2.3 a game, but most of that came against Belgium. Against sides at Lithuania's level (Andorra, Latvia, Moldova, Kazakhstan) they lost 0-2 each time. Only 3 of their last 10 home games went over 2.5 goals. Lithuania are 0-3-7 with 0.7 goals a game, 0.4 away, and failed to score in 60% of away games. Four of their last ten away games went over 2.5. Their chances created are about 0.7-0.9 a game, though that was mostly against stronger opponents. The only previous meetings were two 2-0 Lithuania wins. Referee Čulina: 4.5 yellows a game on a tiny sample. Rain and wind are forecast.
News (web). Sports Mole (22 Sep) says both sides have no injuries and names probable line-ups. Liechtenstein have Büchel back in goal and captain Hasler back; the pack's 310-day rest ignores June friendlies (losses to Andorra and Cyprus). Lithuania are without midfielder Vaidas Magdušauskas, who was injured before camp. Coach Jankauskas says the team must play like favourites. Lithuania face Azerbaijan three days later.
Market. The match-result prices (Lithuania 72.5%) look fair, so I stay close. I make it roughly 1-0.5 per cent adjustments: 9/22/69, giving a little more to the draw because Lithuania finish their chances poorly. On goals, a model with Liechtenstein expected to score about 0.45 and Lithuania about 1.55 gives roughly 2.0 total goals and about 35% for over 2.5. The market has 45%. The third-party model credits Liechtenstein with nearly one goal, which their record doesn't support. That gap is the edge on under 2.5. Both sides scoring (31% vs 34%) and corners (about 8 expected, close to the third-party line) don't clear the bars.
Uncertainties. Liechtenstein's defence has fallen apart in the second half before (0-7, 0-6 and 0-5 against better teams). Lithuania may play with extra ambition against the weakest side in the group. Both teams' September form is unknown.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。