Andorra vs Malta 预测
Andorra
Malta我们的推荐
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
为什么推荐
Foul-heavy teams, a referee averaging 4.1 yellows recently, and past meetings with 4 or more yellows.
The teams' yellow rates add up to about 4.7 (Andorra 2.3 per home game, Malta 2.4 per away game), Andorra foul 15 times per game at home, and referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows over his last 10 games. The last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows plus a red. I expect about 4.6 cards.
- 实际
- 7
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
60%Total cornersunder 9.5 corners命中
Andorra's corner totals are 7.1–7.5 per game and Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win only about 1 corner per game, and neither side is strong enough to keep up sustained pressure. The Bzzoiro model also leans under 9.5 (55%). I expect about 7.8 corners.
- 实际
- 5
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Back over 3.5 cards and under 9.5 corners; the result and goals prices look fair.
- 1Andorra failed to score in 8 of their last 10 games.
- 2Referee Kooij has averaged 4.1 yellows per game over his last 10.
- 3Our result and goals numbers match the bookmakers', so no value there.
深入了解
比赛结果1–2 · 2 条推荐中 2 条命中
最终比分
1–2
进球
3 (我们预计 2.0)
角球
5 (我们预计 7.8)
牌数
7 (我们预计 4.6)
我们 vs 博彩公司在所有项目上，我们与博彩公司的差距都在 4 个百分点以内。
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra 胜 | 25% | 26% | -1 |
| 平局 | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Malta 胜 | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 56% | 58% | -2 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 12% | 16% | -4 |
| 双方都进球 | 38% | 39% | -1 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 22% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 25% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
0.95 – 1.10
预期角球
7.8
预期牌数
4.6
最可能的比分
1-1 (13%) · 0-1 (13%) · 0-0 (12%)
最新球队消息（4）Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
Malta's Joseph Mbong is suspended for the opener and Aleandro Garzia is out injured; Ryan Camenzuli returns from injury.
2026-09-21可靠性：highmaltafootball.com
James Carragher is left out of the Malta squad; 16-year-old Jayden Roe got a first call-up but did not travel.
2026-09-22可靠性：highthemalteseherald.com
Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia; Sports Mole also lists Max Llovera as absent, but a Sportskeeda preview names him among five new call-ups (with de Pablos, C. García, È. Vales and Rosas). Marc Vales captains.
2026-09可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
June friendlies missing from the pack: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia.
2026-09可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
可能出错的地方A quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
A quiet 0-0 with few fouls and a lenient referee could keep cards at three or fewer.
未能核实的内容
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Current status of Andorra injury I. Álvarez
- Whether Max Llovera is in Andorra's squad (sources conflict)
- Bookmaker prices for cards and corners
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Andorra | Malta | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 0.5 – 1.4 | 0.8 – 2.0 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 0.42 – 1.87 | 0.72 – 2.54 |
| 零封 | 10% | 30% |
| 双方都进球 | 40% | 30% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 30% | 40% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 1.0 – 6.5 | 2.8 – 5.4 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 2.3 – 2.3 | 2.4 – 2.1 |
| 距上一场天数 | 315 | 177 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
4 次交锋：主胜 0、平 2、客胜 2 · 场均 1.3 球。
- 2024-11-19 · Malta 0–0 Andorra
- 2024-09-10 · Andorra 0–1 Malta
- 2020-11-14 · Malta 3–1 Andorra
- 2020-10-10 · Andorra 0–0 Malta
裁判
Joey Kooij (Netherlands)
本赛季：33 场比赛，场均 3.24 张黄牌、24.1 次犯规。
近 10 场：场均 4.10 张黄牌。
缺阵
Andorra
I. Álvarez (injured: national_team)
Malta
J. Mbong (suspended: red_card_suspension)
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
Andorra
3.60
平局
2.70
Malta
2.40
大于 2.5 球
3.00
小于 2.5 球
1.36
双方进球：是
2.38
双方进球：否
1.53
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 6.5%。
近 10 场 — Andorra
| 11-13 | 主 | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 10-14 | 主 | Serbia | 1–3 | L |
| 10-11 | 客 | Latvia | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | 客 | England | 0–2 | L |
| 06-10 | 客 | Serbia | 0–3 | L |
| 06-07 | 主 | England | 0–1 | L |
| 03-24 | 客 | Albania | 0–3 | L |
| 03-21 | 主 | Latvia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-19 | 客 | Malta | 0–0 | D |
| 11-16 | 主 | Moldova | 0–1 | L |
近 10 场 — Malta
| 03-31 | 客 | Luxembourg | 0–3 | L |
| 03-26 | 主 | Luxembourg | 0–2 | L |
| 11-17 | 主 | Poland | 2–3 | L |
| 11-14 | 客 | Finland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-09 | 主 | Netherlands | 0–4 | L |
| 09-04 | 客 | Lithuania | 1–1 | D |
| 06-10 | 客 | Netherlands | 0–8 | L |
| 06-07 | 主 | Lithuania | 0–0 | D |
| 03-24 | 客 | Poland | 0–2 | L |
| 03-21 | 主 | Finland | 0–1 | L |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
A tight, low-scoring match between two of Europe's weakest attacks, leaning slightly to Malta; the result prices look fair, so the only value is in cards and corners.
Data (pack). Andorra: 0.3 goals scored per game in the last 10 and failed to score in 80%. At home they average 0.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.87 against, with 26% possession. Malta: 0.4 goals per game in all competitions and 0.8 away, but they concede 2.0–2.4. Both sides do most of their scoring late. The last four meetings produced 1.2 goals per game, including two 0-0s. Malta won 1-0 in Andorra in 2024. Card rates are fairly high: Andorra 2.3 yellows per game at home, Malta 2.4 away, and Andorra commit 15 fouls per game at home. Referee Kooij averages 3.24 yellows per game this season and 4.1 over his last 10, with 0.3 reds per game. Corners: Andorra's totals are 7.1–7.5 per game, Malta's 7.8–8.2. Andorra win very few corners (0.75–1.0 per game).
News (web). Malta lose Joseph Mbong (suspended) and Aleandro Garzia (injured). James Carragher is not in the squad, and Ryan Camenzuli returns. Andorra are without the veterans Marc Pujol, Josep Gomes and Marc Garcia. Max Llovera is also missing per Sports Mole, although a Sportskeeda preview lists him among the new call-ups, so that is conflicting. Marc Vales captains. The pack leaves out June friendlies: Andorra beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and lost 0-3 to Kosovo; Malta beat Azerbaijan 2-0 and lost 1-2 to Slovakia. Nothing here changes the picture much.
Market. The 1X2 prices (26/35/39) and under 2.5 at 69% match the data. I stay close to the market: home 25, draw 35, away 40, over 2.5 at 30%. No priced market clears the 4-point bar.
Unpriced leans.
- Cards: the team rates add up to about 4.7 yellows, the referee's recent 4.1 per game backs that up, and the last two meetings had 6 and 4 yellows. I expect about 4.6 cards, which gives over 3.5 roughly 61%.
- Corners: both teams' totals sit below 8.5, and Andorra barely win any. I expect about 7.8. The Bzzoiro model gives under 9.5 about 55%, and my blend is 60%.
Uncertainties. The pack's windows reach back into last season, and neither side has played a competitive game for months. Kooij's recent numbers come from higher-level matches. A dead 0-0 could keep both cards and fouls low.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。