Kosovo vs Ireland 预测
Kosovo
Ireland我们的推荐
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
为什么推荐
Referee shows nearly five cards a game; Ireland matches hit four-plus bookings eight times in ten.
Referee Visser averages 4.93 yellows per game this season (4.3 over his last 10) plus 0.21 reds. Ireland games reached 4+ yellows in 8 of the last 10, Kosovo games in 6 of 10, and Ireland collect 3.2 yellows per game themselves. An evenly matched competitive opener with away fouling at 14.7 per game supports a total of around 4.6.
- 实际
- 2
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Back over 3.5 cards: Ireland pick up plenty of bookings and the referee averages nearly five a game.
- 1Kosovo have lost just two of their last ten home games.
- 2Both squads are short of players, Ireland missing Collins, Coleman, Ferguson and Cullen.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair; the only angle is cards.
深入了解
比赛结果1–0 · 1 条推荐中 0 条命中
最终比分
1–0
进球
1 (我们预计 2.4)
角球
1 (我们预计 8.8)
牌数
2 (我们预计 4.6)
我们 vs 博彩公司在所有项目上，我们与博彩公司的差距都在 4 个百分点以内。
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo 胜 | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| 平局 | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Ireland 胜 | 30% | 31% | -1 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 66% | 67% | -1 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 20% | 21% | -1 |
| 双方都进球 | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 25% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 15% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.35 – 1.05
预期角球
8.8
预期牌数
4.6
最可能的比分
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (12%) · 0-0 (9%)
最新球队消息（7）Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
Mason Melia and Nathan Collins ruled out; Parrott leads the attack; Azaz, Molumby, Knight expected to start.
2026-09-23可靠性：mediumlastwordonsports.com
Ireland also without Coleman, Evan Ferguson, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor, Mikey Johnston, Oisin McEntee; Dara O'Shea to captain; Parrott has 6 goals in last 6 caps.
2026-09可靠性：mediumsports.yahoo.com
Killian Phillips called up after Jamie McGrath and Harvey Vale withdrew injured.
2026-09-21可靠性：highrte.ie
RTÉ forecasts clear conditions, around 15°C, no rain in Pristina.
2026-09-22可靠性：mediumrte.ie
Muriqi named new Kosovo captain after Amir Rrahman retired from the national team; Vojvoda vice-captain.
2026-09可靠性：highkoha.net
Kosovo without Florent Muslija and Elvis Rexhbeçaj (injured); Korenica replaced injured Donat Rrudhani.
2026-09可靠性：mediumbalkanweb.com
Avdullahu and Fisnik Asllani expected to start for Kosovo.
2026-09可靠性：mediumsportsmole.co.uk
可能出错的地方A cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
A cagey, low-foul opening game where the referee is as lenient as his recent four-per-game run.
未能核实的内容
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Exact status of the long Ireland injury list (from aggregator summaries)
- Weather: pack says rain, RTÉ says clear
数据这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| Kosovo | Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| 场均积分 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 1.7 – 0.9 | 1.2 – 1.9 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 0.89 – 1.06 | 1.17 – 1.91 |
| 零封 | 40% | 0% |
| 双方都进球 | 40% | 70% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 50% | 70% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 2.3 – 3.0 | 3.3 – 6.0 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 2.4 – 2.3 | 2.6 – 2.2 |
| 距上一场天数 | 177 | 182 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
裁判
Lawrence Visser (Belgium)
本赛季：43 场比赛，场均 4.93 张黄牌、24.1 次犯规。
近 10 场：场均 4.30 张黄牌。
缺阵
Kosovo
A. Saipi (injured: national_team)
D. Rrudhani (injured: Knock Injury)
K. Hajrizi (injured: Muscle Injury)
M. Rashica (injured: Thigh Injury)
Ireland
M. Melia (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. Collins (injured: Calf Injury)
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
Kosovo
2.41
平局
3.08
Ireland
3.06
大于 2.5 球
2.27
小于 2.5 球
1.61
双方进球：是
1.91
双方进球：否
1.81
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 6.6%。
近 10 场 — Kosovo
| 03-31 | 主 | Türkiye | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | 客 | Slovakia | 4–3 | W |
| 11-18 | 主 | Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | 客 | Slovenia | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | 客 | Sweden | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | 主 | Slovenia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | 主 | Sweden | 2–0 | W |
| 09-05 | 客 | Switzerland | 0–4 | L |
| 03-23 | 客 | Iceland | 3–1 | W |
| 03-20 | 主 | Iceland | 2–1 | W |
近 10 场 — Ireland
| 03-26 | 客 | Czechia | 2–2 | D |
| 11-16 | 客 | Hungary | 3–2 | W |
| 11-13 | 主 | Portugal | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | 主 | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-11 | 客 | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | 客 | Armenia | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | 主 | Hungary | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | 主 | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 03-20 | 客 | Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 11-17 | 客 | England | 0–5 | L |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
Kosovo slight favourites in a tight, low-scoring opener; no edge on the result, but a card-happy Belgian referee and two booking-prone sides point to over 3.5 cards.
Data (pack). Kosovo at home: 6-2-2, 1.7 scored / 0.9 conceded, but underlying chances are thin (0.89 created vs 1.06 conceded per game), 40% possession, and they rarely win corners (2.25 per game at home, small sample). Ireland away: 3-2-5, 1.2 / 1.9, 70% both sides scoring, and they concede heavily after half-time (13 of 19 away goals conceded in the second half). No head-to-head. Both teams come in after six months without a game.
Cards: Kosovo games had 4+ yellows in 6 of their last 10; Ireland games in 8 of 10 (Ireland get 3.2 yellows per game themselves). Referee Visser: 4.93 yellows and 0.21 reds per game this season, 4.3 over his last 10. Expected total ≈4.6.
News (web). Ireland are badly depleted: Collins, Coleman, Ferguson, Cullen, Taylor, Johnston and McEntee are reported out, McGrath and Vale withdrew, Phillips called up late, O'Shea captains. Parrott is in form (6 in 6). Kosovo are missing Rrudhani, Muslija, Rexhbeçaj, plus Hajrizi/Rashica/Saipi from the pack; Rrahman has retired from international football; Muriqi is the new captain and scoring freely for Fenerbahçe. RTÉ expects clear weather, which contradicts the pack's rain forecast.
Market. 38.9/30.4/30.6. Both sides are weakened, and Ireland's losses in defence roughly cancel out Kosovo's missing midfielders. I nudge Kosovo up about 1 point for home form and Ireland's defensive absences, which is nowhere near the 4-point bar. Over 2.5 at 41.5% fits Kosovo's low-event home profile; I have it at 40%. No priced edge.
Pick. Over 3.5 cards is backed by both teams' booking rates and the referee's rate, which are independent signals. I put it at about 63%.
Uncertainties. Rust after a long break, the first League B game for Kosovo, and full lineups not yet confirmed. The referee's softer recent run (4.3) is the main danger to the cards pick.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。