AS Roma vs Inter 预测
我们的推荐
BTTS
No
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away…
为什么推荐
Roma have conceded 1 goal in 4 league games (xGA 2.6), keep clean sheets in 60% of home games and concede almost nothing before half-time (1 first-half goal in 9 home games); Inter's away output is far weaker than their home one (1.7 GF, xG 1.48 per away game) and they are without Çalhanoğlu. Roma have not failed to score in 10, so the 'No' leans on a Roma clean sheet, which their numbers support.
- 赔率
- 2.49
- 赔率隐含
- 37.6%
- 实际
- BTTS yes
我们的概率高于博彩公司赔率所隐含的概率——这个差距就是优势。
71%Cardsover 3.5 total cards (yellow+red, both teams)命中
Three independent signals: Massa averages 4.5 yellows/g in his last 10 (3.92 season, 25.7 fouls/g); Inter pick up 2.78 yellows per away game; Roma's home opponents average 2.1 yellows and Roma add 1.5 themselves. Top-of-the-table fixture between the two league leaders raises the temperature further.
- 实际
- 6
没有可比较的赔率，所以这是一项主观判断，单独评判。
简而言之
Roma should be a shade shorter than the market makes them — full squad, elite defensive numbers (1 goal conceded in 4) against an Inter side without Çalhanoğlu and modest on the road — so the small value is on BTTS "No" and a well-carded big match.
深入了解
比赛结果2–2 · 2 条推荐中 1 条命中
最终比分
2–2
进球
4 (我们预计 2.8)
角球
6 (我们预计 9.2)
牌数
6 (我们预计 4.8)
我们 vs 博彩公司最大分歧：双方都进球 — 我们 57%，博彩公司 62%
| 我们 | 博彩公司 | 差距 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma 胜 | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| 平局 | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Inter 胜 | 34% | 37% | -3 |
| 大于 1.5 球 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| 大于 3.5 球 | 36% | 38% | -2 |
| 双方都进球 | 57% | 62% | -5 |
| 比赛出现点球 | 24% | – | – |
| 比赛出现红牌 | 12% | – | – |
博彩公司的数字是去掉抽水后的赔率。4 个百分点及以上的差距会高亮。数据源一栏是数据提供方自己的预测，仅供参考。
预期进球
1.50 – 1.25
预期角球
9.2
预期牌数
4.8
最可能的比分
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
最新球队消息（6）Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available.
Gasperini at his pre-match press conference (18 Sep): "For tomorrow we are all available. It is extraordinary because it happens rarely" — Roma have a fully fit squad, implying Ndicka (listed injured in the pack) is available.
2026-09-18可靠性：highradioroma.it
Gasperini on referee Davide Massa's appointment: "Tomorrow he will be perfect, there will be no controversy" — no off-field friction around the officiating.
2026-09-18可靠性：higheurosport.it
Gasperini calls Inter "clearly the strongest team / the benchmark of the league", framing Roma as underdogs despite topping the table.
2026-09-18可靠性：highgianlucadimarzio.com
Inter are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu (groin), John Stones (thigh) and Djed Spence through injury.
2026-09-19可靠性：mediumheavy.com
Probable lineups: Roma (3-4-2-1) Svilar; Mancini, Balerdi, Hermoso; Molina, Koné, Cristante, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé/Mora; Malen. Inter (3-5-2) J. Martínez; Bisseck/Akanji, Akanji/Pavard, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Zieliński, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco/Carlos Augusto; Thuram, Lautaro.
2026-09-19可靠性：mediumlapresse.it
Josep Martínez is confirmed as Inter's first-choice goalkeeper (Sommer left for Club Brugge, Provedel signed as backup) and will start against Roma despite recent errors.
2026-09-18可靠性：mediumcalciomercato.com
可能出错的地方Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Confirmed starting XIs (only probable lineups available; sources disagree on Roma's shape and Inter's right centre-back/wing-back)
- Chivu's own press-conference detail on rotation ahead of Inter's next Champions League fixture
- Whether Ndicka actually starts after the reported stomach problem
- Bookmaker prices for corners, cards and penalties
数据AS RomaWWWWWInterWWWWD
这是分析师针对这场比赛拿到的数据。
| AS Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| 积分榜排名 | 1/20 | 2/20 |
| 积分（场次） | 12 (4) | 12 (4) |
| 近期状态 | WWWWW | WWWWD |
| 场均积分 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 进球 – 失球 | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.7 – 1.2 |
| 预期进球 (xG) 进 – 失 | 1.87 – 0.82 | 1.48 – 1.67 |
| 零封 | 60% | 40% |
| 双方都进球 | 40% | 50% |
| 大于 2.5 球 | 70% | 50% |
| 角球 得 – 失 | 6.7 – 2.9 | 4.3 – 3.5 |
| 黄牌 本方 – 对方 | 1.5 – 2.1 | 2.8 – 2.0 |
| 距上一场天数 | 5 | 5 |
近 10 场：主队看主场，客队看客场。进球和 xG 为每场进–失；角球和黄牌同理。
交锋记录
131 次交锋：主胜 37、平 42、客胜 52 · 场均 3.0 球。
- 2026-04-05 · Inter 5–2 AS Roma
- 2025-10-18 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2025-04-27 · Inter 0–1 AS Roma
- 2024-10-20 · AS Roma 0–1 Inter
- 2024-02-10 · AS Roma 2–4 Inter
裁判
Davide Massa (Italy)
本赛季：39 场比赛，场均 3.92 张黄牌、25.7 次犯规。
近 10 场：场均 4.50 张黄牌。
缺阵
AS Roma
E. Ndicka (injured: Stomach Trouble)
Inter
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
首发：predicted
博彩赔率
AS Roma
2.61
平局
3.45
Inter
2.57
大于 2.5 球
1.60
小于 2.5 球
2.35
双方进球：是
1.50
双方进球：否
2.49
多家博彩公司的综合赔率。它们的合计抽水为 6.2%。
近 10 场 — AS Roma
| 09-14 | 客 | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | 客 | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | 主 | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | 客 | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | 主 | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | 客 | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | 主 | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | 客 | Parma | 3–2 | W |
| 05-04 | 主 | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 04-25 | 客 | Bologna | 2–0 | W |
近 10 场 — Inter
| 09-14 | 主 | Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 09-08 | 客 | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-05 | 主 | SSC Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | 客 | Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 08-22 | 主 | Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 05-23 | 客 | Bologna | 3–3 | D |
| 05-17 | 主 | Hellas Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 05-13 | 客 | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-09 | 客 | Lazio | 3–0 | W |
| 05-03 | 主 | Parma | 2–0 | W |
完整分析分析师的完整推理 · 阅读约 2 分钟
Data
- Both on 12 pts in 4; Roma GF 12 GA 1 (xG 11.3-2.6), Inter GF 13 GA 6 (xGA 4.7). Inter's back line has leaked: 5-3 v Udinese, 3-2 v Napoli, 1-2 at Real.
- Roma home last 10: 7-3-0, 2.6-0.8 goals, xG 1.87-0.82, 60% clean sheets, 0% failed to score, scored first in 7/9. Goals against by minute at home: only 1 in the first half across 9 games.
- Inter away last 10 is the soft spot: 4-4-2, 1.7-1.2 goals, xG 1.48-1.67, corners only 4.3-3.5, 2 penalties conceded, 2.78 yellows/g.
- H2H strongly Inter (8W in 10), but those came under different Roma management; last 5 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- Referee Massa: 3.92 Y/g season, 4.5 Y/g over his last 10, 25.7 fouls/g, 0.2 pens scored/g.
News
- Gasperini (18 Sep): "for tomorrow we are all available… it happens rarely" — so Ndicka, listed injured in the pack, appears fit; Roma at full strength.
- Inter miss Çalhanoğlu (groin), Stones (thigh) and Spence; Zieliński expected to deputise in the build-up role. Josep Martínez, error-prone lately, remains the starter with Sommer gone.
Market
- Priced 36.1/27.3/36.6 with Bzzoiro almost identical. My blend (Roma ~1.5 xG, Inter ~1.25) gives Roma ~42%, but 4-game samples and Roma's soft schedule argue for shrinkage: I land 39/27/34 — not a 4-pt edge, so no 1X2 bet.
- Totals: 2.75 expected goals ≈ 60% over 2.5, i.e. the market price. BTTS is where the prices look stretched: 62.4% implied against my 57%. Roma have conceded once in four league games and kept a clean sheet in 60% of home games, while Inter's away attack (1.48 xG) is much tamer than their home one.
- Cards: Massa's recent 4.5/g plus Inter's 2.78 away yellows and a title-shaping fixture point to 4.5+ total cards.
Uncertainties
- Roma's numbers come against Fiorentina/Lecce/Atalanta/Torino — this is a big step up; Inter have scored in all 10 recent games, which is the main risk to BTTS No. Heat (26°C) may slow the tempo.
由 opus 分析（含网络搜索）。