Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei prediction
Vietnam
Chinese TaipeiOur pick
Vietnam team goals
Vietnam over 1.5 goals
Taipei concede heavily away, and both prices and model expect Vietnam to score over two.
Why this pick
Taipei concede heavily away, and both prices and model expect Vietnam to score over two.
Chinese Taipei concede 4.0 per away game in the pack and conceded 20 in five matches from September 2025 during an eight-game losing run. The market (83% home, about 3.3 total goals) and the Bzzoiro model (2.25 for Vietnam) both point to around 2.3 Vietnam goals, which gives roughly 67% for two or more. We shade that down for Vietnam's experimental squad.
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Vietnam to score at least twice: Chinese Taipei have leaked goals for two years.
- 1Chinese Taipei have lost eight in a row, conceding 20 in five games.
- 2Vietnam call up eleven uncapped players, so the home side is untested.
- 3Prices already make Vietnam huge favourites, so we skip the match result.
Go deeper
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam win | 80% | 83% | -3 |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | +1 |
| Chinese Taipei win | 8% | 6% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 88% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 73% | -3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 54% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 7% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.85
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
3.3
Late team news (4)Vietnam squad is experimental: 11 uncapped players, only GK Patrik Le Giang retained from last XI; Nguyen Thanh Chung likely to…
Vietnam squad is experimental: 11 uncapped players, only GK Patrik Le Giang retained from last XI; Nguyen Thanh Chung likely to start.
2026-11reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Chinese Taipei recall all 11 starters from March loss to Sri Lanka (3-1); eight-match losing run, 20 conceded in five games since Sept 2025; coach Matt Ross.
2026-11reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Vietnam lost ASEAN Cup semi to Thailand 2-1 and bronze match to Malaysia 1-0 after a 33-game unbeaten run; no injuries reported for either side.
2026-11reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Vietnam host a friendly tournament at Thien Truong Stadium 11-15 November, Chinese Taipei first then Kyrgyzstan; squad gathered 9 Nov, Kim Sang-sik giving chances to U23 Asian Cup bronze players.
2026-11reliability: mediumtienphong.vn
What could go wrongVietnam's inexperienced line-up struggles to combine and wins only 1-0 or 1-1.
Vietnam's inexperienced line-up struggles to combine and wins only 1-0 or 1-1.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups for both sides
- Referee
- Corner and card statistics (none in pack)
- Pack match logs are stale (2024); recent 2025-26 results only via one preview
The dataVietnamWWWWDChinese TaipeiLLWWL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Vietnam | Chinese Taipei | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 26/205 | 167/205 |
| Points (played) | 9 (3) | 0 (0) |
| Form | WWWWD | LLWWL |
| Points per game | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals for – against | 1.0 – 1.2 | 0.9 – 4.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 0.81 – 1.46 | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 2.2 – 2.2 | 1.3 – 0.5 |
| Days since last match | 883 | 883 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 3.3 goals per game.
- 2017-03-22 · Vietnam 1–1 Chinese Taipei
- 2016-03-24 · Vietnam 4–1 Chinese Taipei
- 2015-09-08 · Chinese Taipei 1–2 Vietnam
Absences
Vietnam
None reported
Chinese Taipei
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Vietnam
1.12
Draw
8.76
Chinese Taipei
15.33
Over 2.5 goals
1.29
Under 2.5 goals
3.52
Both score: yes
1.98
Both score: no
1.73
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.2%.
Last 10 games — Vietnam
| 06-11 | A | Iraq | 1–3 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Philippines | 3–2 | W |
| 03-26 | H | Indonesia | 0–3 | L |
| 03-21 | A | Indonesia | 0–1 | L |
| 01-24 | A | Iraq | 2–3 | L |
| 01-19 | H | Indonesia | 0–1 | L |
| 01-14 | A | Japan | 2–4 | L |
| 11-21 | H | Iraq | 0–1 | L |
| 11-16 | A | Philippines | 2–0 | W |
| 03-29 | A | Japan | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Chinese Taipei
| 06-11 | A | Malaysia | 1–3 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Oman | 0–3 | L |
| 03-26 | A | Kyrgyzstan | 1–5 | L |
| 03-21 | H | Kyrgyzstan | 0–2 | L |
| 11-21 | H | Malaysia | 0–1 | L |
| 11-16 | A | Oman | 0–3 | L |
| 10-17 | A | East Timor | 3–0 | W |
| 10-12 | H | East Timor | 4–0 | W |
| 06-15 | H | Kuwait | 1–2 | L |
| 06-07 | A | Australia | 1–5 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Vietnam should win comfortably against a Chinese Taipei side that has lost eight straight, but an experimental home squad keeps us near the market; best lean is Vietnam to score 2+.
Data (pack): The pack's game logs are stale for both sides: the newest entries are from mid-2024 ("883 days rest"). Chinese Taipei away: 1-0-9, 0.9 scored and 4.0 conceded per game, 90% of games over 2.5 goals, 18 of 40 goals against in the first half. Vietnam's 2024 home record (1.0 for, 1.2 against) came against much stronger Asian qualifying opponents. The table line shows Vietnam's recent form as WWWWD. H2H: Vietnam 2W 1D, 3.3 goals per game, and Taipei scored in all three. No card or corner stats; referee unknown.
News (web): Sports Mole says Vietnam (FIFA 99th) were unbeaten in 33 games from September 2024 before ASEAN Cup losses to Thailand (2-1) and Malaysia (1-0). Kim Sang-sik has named an experimental squad with 11 uncapped players, built around the U23 side that took Asian Cup bronze. Only goalkeeper Patrik Le Giang remains from the last starting XI. Chinese Taipei (176th, coach Matt Ross) bring back their full March XI, but they are on an eight-match losing run, conceded 20 goals in five games from September 2025, and lost 3-1 to Sri Lanka. This is the opener of a home friendly tournament in Ninh Binh. Kyrgyzstan come next.
Market: 83/11/6 with about 3.3 total goals implied. The Bzzoiro model has 2.25-0.96. The experimental Vietnam squad is the only reason to step slightly away from the favourite, so 80/12/8. No priced edge clears 4 points: over 2.5 matches the market, and the lessons say not to force it. Vietnam's own goals are not priced. With a home scoring rate of about 2.3, two or more Vietnam goals comes out near 67%; we shade that to 64% for squad unfamiliarity. Both signals point the same way: the opponent concedes heavily and the market and model expect Vietnam to dominate.
Uncertainties: Vietnam's line-up is unknown. The pack data is stale. Friendly substitutions can break up rhythm. Taipei have scored against Vietnam in every past meeting.
Analysed by opus with web research.