Pamplona vs Eibar prediction
Our pick
Away team total goals
Eibar over 1.5 goals
A fifth-tier opponent, and Eibar scored twice or more in six of their last ten.
Why this pick
A fifth-tier opponent, and Eibar scored twice or more in six of their last ten.
The opponent is three divisions lower, and the market makes Eibar an 80% favourite, which implies about 2 goals. Eibar scored 2+ in 6 of their last 10 and failed to score once. Rotation and modest underlying chances created (1.26 per game) keep this just above the bar.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Eibar should beat a side three divisions lower; small lean on Eibar scoring two or more.
- 1Pamplona play in Tercera Federación, three divisions below Eibar, who sit third in the second tier.
- 2Eibar have five absentees and are bringing in three reserve-team players.
- 3The bookmakers' win and goals prices look fair, so there is no edge on them.
Go deeper
What happened0–3 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–3
Goals
3 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
– (we expected 9.5)
Cards
2 (we expected 3.8)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pamplona win | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | +1 |
| Eibar win | 78% | 80% | -2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 40% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 18% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.70 – 2.05
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
3.8
Likeliest scores
0-2 (12%) · 1-2 (10%) · 0-1 (9%)
Late team news (4)RFEF rescheduled Pamplona vs Eibar to Tuesday 10 November, 19:00 peninsular time, after postponement for the death of Tenerife's…
RFEF rescheduled Pamplona vs Eibar to Tuesday 10 November, 19:00 peninsular time, after postponement for the death of Tenerife's Jesús de Miguel.
2026-11-05reliability: highrfef.es
Eibar absences: Sergio Álvarez, Elgezabal, Arbilla, Bernat and Gift; three reserve-team players called up.
2026-10-28reliability: mediumelgoldigital.com
Pamplona play in Tercera Federación (Navarra), three divisions below Eibar; they lost last season's promotion playoff final. The match is at a borrowed ground in Mutilva because their own floodlights fall short of TV requirements.
2026-10-28reliability: mediumelgoldigital.com
The match was postponed by RFEF out of respect after Jesús de Miguel's death.
2026-11-03reliability: mediumfutboltotal.futbol
What could go wrongA heavily rotated Eibar on an unfamiliar borrowed pitch create little and win only 1-0.
A heavily rotated Eibar on an unfamiliar borrowed pitch create little and win only 1-0.
What it couldn't verify
- Eibar squad list for the rescheduled date
- Pamplona's form and squad
- Referee
- Pitch surface at the Mutilva venue
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Pamplona | Eibar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | – | 1.8 |
| Goals for – against | – – – | 1.7 – 1.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | 1.10 – 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | – | 40% |
| Both teams scored | – | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | – | 70% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | 2.9 – 8.0 |
| Yellows for – against | – – – | 2.3 – 2.5 |
| Days since last match | – | 10 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Absences
Pamplona
None reported
Eibar
A. Arbilla (injured: Rib Injury)
U. Elgezabal (injured: Calf Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Pamplona
13.73
Draw
6.97
Eibar
1.17
Over 2.5 goals
1.53
Under 2.5 goals
2.36
Both score: yes
2.29
Both score: no
1.58
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.1%.
Last 10 games — Eibar
| 10-31 | H | Almería | 1–1 | D |
| 10-24 | A | Córdoba | 0–2 | L |
| 10-17 | H | Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 10-12 | A | Real Oviedo | 1–3 | L |
| 10-03 | A | Albacete Balompié | 3–1 | W |
| 09-27 | H | UD Las Palmas | 3–2 | W |
| 09-19 | A | CD Eldense | 2–1 | W |
| 09-14 | A | Celta Fortuna | 4–0 | W |
| 09-06 | H | Granada | 3–0 | W |
| 08-30 | A | FC Andorra | 1–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Eibar should get through a fifth-tier Pamplona side, but the price on the result is already short and fair; the only lean is Eibar scoring at least twice.
(a) Data. There is no data on Pamplona: no games or stats in the pack, and the two sides have never met. Eibar's last 10 games: W6 D2 L2, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.1 per game. Their underlying numbers are weaker. Chances created were 1.26 for and 1.42 against per game. They took 12.6 shots and faced 19.5, with 43% possession. They won 2.9 corners and conceded 6.8. That is a side that sits deep and hits on the break in the league, and it should flip against a fifth-tier team. Eibar scored 2+ in 6 of 10 games and failed to score only once. Their goals come early (5 in the first 15 minutes) and late. Their cards are modest at 2.1 yellows per game. No referee has been named.
(b) News (web). The tie was postponed from 28 Oct / 3 Nov after the death of Tenerife's Jesús de Miguel. The RFEF has confirmed the new date: 10 Nov, 19:00 Spanish time. The venue is a borrowed ground in Mutilva because Pamplona's Beitikuntzea floodlights fall short of TV standards. Pamplona are in the Navarra group of Tercera Federación. They finished second last season and lost the promotion playoff final. A 28 Oct preview listed Eibar's absences as Sergio Álvarez, Elgezabal, Arbilla, Bernat and Gift, with three reserve-team players called up. Coach Aranbarri has called it a tie with no margin for error. Eibar have had 10 days' rest, so fatigue is not an issue, but some rotation is likely.
(c) Market. No-margin prices: Eibar 79.8%, over 2.5 goals 60.7%, both sides scoring 40.8%. My figures: Eibar 78%, over 2.5 at 62% after the usual scoring uplift, both sides scoring 43%. None of these differ from the market by 4 points, so there is no priced pick. Eibar's own goals are not priced. I make Eibar 2+ goals about 60%, based on a fifth-tier opponent, the size of the market favourite and Eibar's 6/10 record. Rotation limits that to a low-confidence lean.
(d) Uncertainties. We know nothing about Pamplona's form. The borrowed pitch may be artificial. We don't know Eibar's XI. A draw at 90 minutes goes to extra time, but bets settle on 90 minutes.
Analysed by opus with web research.