CD Anaitasuna FT vs Deportivo Alavés prediction
Our pick
Goals over/under 3.5
under 3.5 goals
Alavés score little even at full strength; a rotated side reaching four goals is far from the near-certainty the price suggests.
Why this pick
Alavés score little even at full strength; a rotated side reaching four goals is far from the near-certainty the price suggests.
The odds imply a 4.5-goal rout. Alavés score 1.1 per game, failed to score in 30% of their last 10 and saw four-plus goals in only 20%. They field a rotated XI without Rebbach, and Boyé is nursing a knock. Anaitasuna held Getafe to 1-2 with both goals conceded late. Even crediting Alavés with three goals, under 3.5 comes out near 42%, against 33% implied.
- Odds
- 2.80
- Odds imply
- 33.0%
- Actual
- 7
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
In short
Alavés win, but back under 3.5 goals: a rotated, low-scoring Alavés rarely runs up big scores.
- 1Alavés average 1.1 goals a game and failed to score in three of ten.
- 2Sánchez Flores confirmed changes in every line; Rebbach and Koski are away on international duty.
- 3Odds imply about 67% for four-plus goals; we make it nearer 58%.
Go deeper
What happened1–6 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–6
Goals
7 (we expected 3.5)
Corners
7 (we expected 9.5)
Cards
1 (we expected 3.0)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 58%, bookmakers 67%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD Anaitasuna FT win | 4% | 2% | +2 |
| Draw | 9% | 6% | +3 |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 87% | 92% | -5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 93% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 83% | -7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 67% | -9 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 37% | +3 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.55 – 3.00
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
3.0
Late team news (5)Match rescheduled twice (first after the Toledo train accident); now set for Tuesday 10 November, 19:00, at Txerloia.
Match rescheduled twice (first after the Toledo train accident); now set for Tuesday 10 November, 19:00, at Txerloia.
2026-11-05reliability: highnoticiasdealava.eus
Sánchez Flores calls 23 players; everyone available except long-term absentees Mikel Rodríguez and Facundo Garcés; Adrián Rodríguez to start in goal ahead of Sivera.
2026-11-09reliability: highnoticiasdealava.eus
Ville Koski and Abde Rebbach miss the tie on international duty; Boyé has a minor knock but asked to be included.
2026-11-09reliability: mediumnoticiasdealava.eus
Coach confirmed changes in every line, including goalkeeper; youngsters Xanet and Selu Diallo may get minutes.
2026-11reliability: mediumelgoldigital.com
Sánchez Flores wants to go 'all out' for the win; no players held back for the Copa.
2026-10-28reliability: mediumgasteizhoy.com
What could go wrongThe amateur defence collapses after the break, as Tedeon's did, and Alavés's second string runs up four or five.
The amateur defence collapses after the break, as Tedeon's did, and Alavés's second string runs up four or five.
What it couldn't verify
- Anaitasuna team news, league tier and recent league form
- Referee
- Pitch type at Txerloia (artificial or natural)
- Confirmed starting XIs
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| CD Anaitasuna FT | Deportivo Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals for – against | 3.0 – 1.0 | 1.0 – 1.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | 1.30 – 1.36 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | 4.1 – 5.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 0.5 – 1.0 | 2.4 – 2.0 |
| Days since last match | 38 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Absences
CD Anaitasuna FT
None reported
Deportivo Alavés
F. Garcés (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
M. Rodriguez (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
CD Anaitasuna FT
41.00
Draw
17.00
Deportivo Alavés
1.04
Over 2.5 goals
1.12
Under 2.5 goals
5.41
Both score: yes
2.49
Both score: no
1.49
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 4.5%.
Last 10 games — CD Anaitasuna FT
| 10-03 | A | CD Tedeon | 5–2 | W |
| 09-26 | H | CD Tedeon | 5–0 | W |
| 12-17 | H | Getafe | 1–2 | L |
| 11-11 | A | Real Titanico FC | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Deportivo Alavés
| 11-06 | A | Sevilla | 0–0 | D |
| 10-31 | A | FC Barcelona | 1–6 | L |
| 10-23 | H | Málaga CF | 1–1 | D |
| 10-18 | A | Celta Vigo | 1–2 | L |
| 10-10 | H | Atlético Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-19 | A | Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 09-15 | H | Valencia | 0–1 | L |
| 09-12 | A | Real Racing Club | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | H | Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 08-28 | H | Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Alavés should go through comfortably, but a rotated, low-scoring side makes the market's expected rout look too steep: lean under 3.5 goals.
Data (pack). Alavés are in poor form: 2-3-5 in their last 10 with 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. They failed to score in 30% of those games, and only 2 of the 10 had four or more goals (over 3.5 rate: 20%). They see little of the ball (39% possession). Anaitasuna's whole data history is four Copa ties. They hammered CD Tedeon twice (5-2, 5-0) and lost only 1-2 at home to Getafe last December, conceding both goals after the 70th minute. They have scored in every game the pack has. They have not played for 38 days, and their league games are not indexed. There is no referee, no corner data for the hosts and no head-to-head.
News (web). The tie was postponed twice, after the Toledo train accident and then a second time, and is now set for 10 November at 19:00 at Txerloia. Sánchez Flores took 23 players and promised changes in every line, including Adrián Rodríguez in goal. Koski and Rebbach are away on international duty, Boyé has a minor knock, and Mikel Rodríguez and Garcés are long-term absentees. The coach says he wants to go "all out" to win.
Market. The odds give Alavés 92% to win in 90 minutes, 82.8% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for over 3.5. That implies an expected total around 4.5 goals, which does not fit a blunt Alavés attack fielding a rotated XI. My model has Alavés scoring about 3.0, already well above their league rate, and the hosts about 0.55. Even after the lesson-based upward adjustment for goals, four or more goals comes out around 50%. Shrinking toward the market gives about 58% for over 3.5, so roughly 42% for under 3.5 against 33% implied. That is a 9-point gap, the only one worth taking. The draw (9% vs 5.6%) is close to the bar but not over it. Both sides scoring (about 40% vs 37%) has no edge.
Uncertainties. I don't know Anaitasuna's tier or current form, and their 5-0 and 5-2 wins show a big quality gap can still produce lopsided scores. Big mismatch cup ties often go late and open up. The previous lessons also warn that under-goals picks have done badly, hence low confidence.
Analysed by opus with web research.