HNK Segesta vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb prediction
Our picks
Match result
Dinamo Zagreb to win
Even Dinamo's reserves are far stronger than a lower-league anniversary host.
Why this pick
Even Dinamo's reserves are far stronger than a lower-league anniversary host.
Top-flight champions against a lower-league anniversary host. Even Dinamo's reserves are far stronger, and the club says it will use the game as match practice for players with fewer minutes, which still means a competitive squad. The main risk is a relaxed draw.
- Actual
- 0-5
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
63%Total goalsover 2.5 goalsWon
The quality gap points to Dinamo scoring about 3. Dinamo's last 10 games had over 2.5 goals 70% of the time. Friendlies with many substitutions tend to open up late. Shrunk for rotation and effort risk.
- Actual
- 5
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Dinamo to win and over 2.5 goals: a top-flight side against a lower-league team in a friendly.
- 1Segesta play in a lower division; Dinamo are Croatia's top club.
- 2Coach Kovačević says players with fewer minutes will get chances.
- 3Anniversary friendlies are usually open and high-scoring, with little defending.
Go deeper
What happened0–5 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
0–5
Goals
5 (we expected 3.7)
Corners
– (we expected 9.0)
Cards
– (we expected 1.8)
Us vs the bookmakersAll our probabilities for this match.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Segesta win | 7% | – | – |
| Draw | 13% | – | – |
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb win | 80% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 42% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 18% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 3% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.70 – 3.00
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
1.8
Late team news (4)Friendly marks HNK Segesta's 120th anniversary; Wednesday 30 September, 16:00 local time, Gradski stadion Sisak (capacity…
Friendly marks HNK Segesta's 120th anniversary; Wednesday 30 September, 16:00 local time, Gradski stadion Sisak (capacity 8,000); tickets €10.
2026-09reliability: highgnkdinamo.hr
Dinamo coach Kovačević calls Segesta a good warm-up and will give chances to players who have played less so far.
2026-09reliability: highgnkdinamo.hr
Dinamo fans criticised the club's announcement of the Sisak friendly.
2026-09reliability: mediumindex.hr
Dinamo played a league game around 20 September (Mišić sent off), which the pack does not show; the pack's rest figure is out of date.
2026-09-20reliability: mediumtportal.hr
What could go wrongA heavily rotated Dinamo youth side plays a slow, low-effort game and wins only 1-0 or 2-0.
A heavily rotated Dinamo youth side plays a slow, low-effort game and wins only 1-0 or 2-0.
What it couldn't verify
- Dinamo club article returned 403; exact rotated lineup unknown
- Segesta's current division and form not verified
- No odds, referee or Segesta stats available
The dataHNK SegestaGNK Dinamo ZagrebDWWWL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| HNK Segesta | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 2027/2951 | 426/2951 |
| Points (played) | 0 (0) | 10 (5) |
| Form | DWWWL | |
| Points per game | – | 1.2 |
| Goals for – against | – – – | 1.1 – 1.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | 1.00 – 1.64 |
| Clean sheets | – | 10% |
| Both teams scored | – | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | – | 60% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | 4.3 – 5.8 |
| Yellows for – against | – – – | 1.8 – 2.2 |
| Days since last match | – | 14 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Absences
HNK Segesta
None reported
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
None reported
Line-ups: unavailable
Bookmaker odds
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is –%.
Last 10 games — GNK Dinamo Zagreb
| 09-16 | A | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 0–0 | D |
| 08-26 | A | Viking FK | 1–3 | L |
| 08-18 | H | Viking FK | 2–2 | D |
| 08-11 | A | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 2–1 | W |
| 08-04 | H | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 5–0 | W |
| 07-28 | H | FC Thun | 2–2 | D |
| 07-21 | A | FC Thun | 1–1 | D |
| 02-26 | A | KRC Genk | 3–1 | W |
| 02-19 | H | KRC Genk | 1–3 | L |
| 01-29 | A | FC Midtjylland | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Dinamo Zagreb should comfortably beat lower-league Segesta in a 120th-anniversary friendly, even with a rotated side, so we lean towards a Dinamo win with goals.
Data (pack): The pack has almost nothing to work with. Segesta have no indexed games. Dinamo's last 10 are all European ties: 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of them. Those opponents (Genk, Viking, Thun, Midtjylland) are far stronger than Segesta, so the defensive numbers don't carry over. There are no odds, no referee, no head-to-head and no absences listed. The last game in the pack is 16 September, but the web shows a league game around 20 September, so the pack's rest figure is out of date.
News (web): This is a friendly for Segesta's 120th anniversary at Gradski stadion in Sisak, kicking off at 16:00 local time. Dinamo coach Mario Kovačević calls it a good warm-up and says players who have played less will get chances. He did the same in the cup at Bedem Ivankovo. Dinamo fans reacted negatively to the club announcing the game.
Market: There are no prices at all, so every pick is an unpriced lean based on the gap in quality and how friendlies usually go. My estimate: Dinamo about 3.0 goals and Segesta about 0.7. Friendlies bring many substitutions and uneven effort, and a rotated Dinamo side lowers the ceiling, so I shrink the probabilities.
- Dinamo win: about 80% (a draw is possible if they ease off).
- Over 2.5 goals: about 64%. Raw scoring rates give about 70%; I cut it for the rotation risk.
- Dinamo over 2.5 goals of their own: roughly 58% before adjustment. Following the lesson on team-goals picks, I leave it out.
- Cards: friendlies average very few. Under 3.5 cards is likely, but I have only one signal and no referee data, so no pick.
Uncertainties: Segesta's exact level and current form, Dinamo's lineup (possibly youth or reserve players), a friendly's unpredictable intensity, and missing referee and stats data. Confidence is low.
Analysed by opus with web research.