SC Kalsdorf vs Grazer AK 1902 prediction
Our pick
Total goals
over 2.5 goals
A two-division gap plus a leaky, rotated Grazer AK defence points to at least three goals.
Why this pick
A two-division gap plus a leaky, rotated Grazer AK defence points to at least three goals.
No goals price in the pack. Signal 1: the 1X2 price (away 78.3% no-margin) implies about a two-goal gap, which puts the total near 3.7 and three or more goals around 70%. Signal 2: GAK concede 2.0 per game with 20% clean sheets, so a rotated back line can let Kalsdorf contribute. Signal 3: anniversary friendly with mass substitutions, reported by the club and Ligaportal. Shrunk to 66% because Kalsdorf have no data and GAK's own attack is weak (0.8 per game in the league).
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Small lean on three or more goals: a top-flight side visits a third-tier club in an open friendly.
- 1Grazer AK concede two a game and rarely keep clean sheets.
- 2Club reports say fringe and returning players get the minutes for Grazer AK.
- 3The away price looks fair, so there is no value on the winner.
Go deeper
What happened1–5 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–5
Goals
6 (we expected 3.7)
Corners
8 (we expected 10.0)
Cards
2 (we expected 2.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Kalsdorf win | 10% | 9% | +1 |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | +1 |
| Grazer AK 1902 win | 76% | 78% | -2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 54% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 3% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.80
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
2.0
Likeliest scores
0-2 (10%) · 0-3 (9%) · 1-2 (9%)
Late team news (5)The match is a test game in the international break marking SC Kalsdorf's 80th anniversary; kickoff 18:00 local at Sportzentrum…
The match is a test game in the international break marking SC Kalsdorf's 80th anniversary; kickoff 18:00 local at Sportzentrum Kalsdorf. GAK entered the break four games unbeaten after the 2-2 with Austria Wien.
2026-09-23reliability: highgrazerak.at
GAK will use the friendly to give minutes to players with little recent game time or returning from injury and illness; coach is Gerald Scheiblehner.
2026-09-28reliability: highligaportal.at
Jacob Italiano is away with the Australia national team and misses the friendly.
2026-09-28reliability: highligaportal.at
SC Kalsdorf are a Regionalliga side under coach Jörg Schirgi, currently among the league leaders and rated one of the better footballing teams in that league.
2026-09-28reliability: mediumligaportal.at
Injury tracker lists GAK's Guerti (muscle), Koch (back), Pines (muscle), Mandey (toe) and Trummer (hamstring) as injured as of mid-September; Klassen and Italiano were reported ill around 11-13 September. Not confirmed by the club.
reliability: lowsportsdunia.com
What could go wrongA heavily rotated Grazer AK side plays at training pace and the game ends 2-0 or 1-1.
A heavily rotated Grazer AK side plays at training pace and the game ends 2-0 or 1-1.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed or probable lineups for either side
- SC Kalsdorf's recent results, scoring rates and squad availability
- Referee
- How many first-team regulars GAK will actually field and for how long
- Current status of GAK's listed injuries from a club source
- Goals, corners and cards prices
The dataSC KalsdorfLGrazer AK 1902LWLLD
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| SC Kalsdorf | Grazer AK 1902 | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 2504/2951 | 185/2951 |
| Points (played) | 0 (1) | 15 (11) |
| Form | L | LWLLD |
| Points per game | – | 1.4 |
| Goals for – against | – – – | 1.8 – 2.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | 0.81 – 2.55 |
| Clean sheets | – | 11% |
| Both teams scored | – | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | – | 78% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | 2.3 – 6.8 |
| Yellows for – against | – – – | 2.8 – 1.0 |
| Days since last match | – | 11 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Absences
SC Kalsdorf
None reported
Grazer AK 1902
D. Pines (injured: Muscle Injury)
T. Koch (injured: Back Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
SC Kalsdorf
10.00
Draw
7.00
Grazer AK 1902
1.14
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 12.0%.
Last 10 games — Grazer AK 1902
| 09-19 | H | FK Austria Wien | 2–2 | D |
| 09-12 | A | SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Wolfsberger AC | 0–0 | D |
| 08-21 | A | SV Ried | 0–1 | L |
| 08-16 | A | SK Rapid Wien | 0–8 | L |
| 08-08 | H | SC Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 07-31 | A | LASK | 0–3 | L |
| 08-24 | A | Liverpool FC | 1–0 | W |
| 08-10 | H | Liverpool FC | 0–2 | L |
| 08-27 | A | AFC Ajax | 1–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
GAK should win an anniversary friendly at third-tier Kalsdorf, but with a rotated side and no Kalsdorf data the only lean is on goals.
(a) Data (pack)
- Kalsdorf: zero games of history in the pack. No form, venue, corner or card numbers; everything about them is unknown.
- Grazer AK: 3-2-5 in the last 10, 0.8 scored / 2.0 conceded per game, clean sheets 20%, failed to score 50%. League results only from 31 July onward are credible; the "Champions League" rows (Liverpool, Ajax, etc.) are clearly mis-indexed and I ignore them, which also makes the 9-game away split unreliable.
- Real away league games: 2-1 Altach, 0-1 Ried, 0-8 Rapid, 0-3 LASK. Weak attack, leaky defence at top-flight level.
- No referee, no H2H, no goals prices.
(b) News (web)
- Club site and Ligaportal: this is an international-break test for Kalsdorf's 80th anniversary, kickoff 18:00 local. Players short of minutes or returning from injury/illness are expected to play, so heavy rotation and mass substitutions are likely.
- Italiano is away with Australia. An injury tracker lists Guerti, Koch, Pines, Mandey and Trummer as out in mid-September (not confirmed by the club).
- Kalsdorf are described as a Regionalliga side near the top of their league with a good playing style.
- GAK came into the break four league games unbeaten.
(c) Market
- Implied 8.9 / 12.8 / 78.3. A two-division gap justifies that; rotation and friendly intensity argue for a small shade toward the home side. I land at 10 / 14 / 76, no edge on any result.
- That supremacy implies roughly 2.8 v 0.9 goals and about 70% for three or more goals. Friendlies with unlimited changes usually run open, and GAK's defence concedes freely. I shrink to 66% and keep it a low-confidence unpriced lean.
- Cards and corners: no Kalsdorf data and no referee, so no pick. Friendlies produce few cards.
(d) Uncertainties
- The actual GAK XI and how many youngsters play.
- Kalsdorf's true level is not measurable from the pack.
- Friendly tempo can collapse after the break.
Analysed by opus with web research.