FC Argeș Pitești vs CSM Deva prediction
Our pick
Total goals
over 1.5 goals
Two-division gap in a loose friendly; last year's meeting finished 4-1.
Why this pick
Two-division gap in a loose friendly; last year's meeting finished 4-1.
A top-flight side hosts a third-tier side in a friendly, so the defending should be loose and there will be many substitutions. The same fixture last October finished 4-1. Argeș's league scoring is weak (0.6 per game) and injuries cut into the squad, so I shrink the estimate from about 76% to 70%.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
We back at least two goals: a top-flight side hosts a third-tier team, and Argeș won last year's friendly 4-1.
- 1Top-flight Argeș host CSM Deva, third in their third-tier group.
- 2Argeș have many injuries and several players away with national teams.
- 3Last October's friendly between them ended 4-1 to Argeș.
Go deeper
What happened2–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–1
Goals
3 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
7 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
0 (we expected 2.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Argeș Pitești win | 76% | 78% | -2 |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 0 |
| CSM Deva win | 9% | 7% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 42% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 14% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 4% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.70
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
2.0
Late team news (5)Friendly vs CSM Deva set for 30 Sept at Albota during the international break; second friendly vs CSM Slatina on 3 Oct; next…
Friendly vs CSM Deva set for 30 Sept at Albota during the international break; second friendly vs CSM Slatina on 3 Oct; next official game vs CFR Cluj on 12 Oct.
2026-09reliability: higharges-sport.ro
CSM Deva are 3rd in Liga 3, Series 7.
2026-09reliability: higharges-sport.ro
Several Argeș players are on international duty (Sadriu, Rață, Nikić and others), and the friendlies are for keeping available players sharp.
2026-09reliability: higharges-sport.ro
Argeș had nine injured players at once. Moldoveanu, Sierra and Marios Tudose were doubtful.
2026-09reliability: mediumjurnaluldearges.ro
The previous friendly between the sides, in October 2025, ended 4-1 to Argeș (3-1 at half-time).
2025-10-10reliability: higharges-sport.ro
What could go wrongA weakened Argeș squad with many changes and a poor scoring record grinds out a 1-0 or 0-0.
A weakened Argeș squad with many changes and a poor scoring record grinds out a 1-0 or 0-0.
What it couldn't verify
- Probable XI for either side
- CSM Deva current form and squad
- Referee
- Whether the friendly runs a standard 90 minutes
- Goals, corners and cards prices
The dataFC Argeș PiteștiDWWWWCSM Deva
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| FC Argeș Pitești | CSM Deva | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 244/2951 | 2000/2951 |
| Points (played) | 13 (7) | 0 (0) |
| Form | DWWWW | |
| Points per game | 1.0 | – |
| Goals for – against | 0.7 – 0.9 | – – – |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.06 – 1.08 | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 20% | – |
| Both teams scored | 40% | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | – |
| Corners for – against | 4.1 – 3.6 | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 2.8 – 3.7 | – – – |
| Days since last match | 12 | – |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Absences
FC Argeș Pitești
None reported
CSM Deva
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
FC Argeș Pitești
1.17
Draw
6.00
CSM Deva
13.00
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 9.8%.
Last 10 games — FC Argeș Pitești
| 09-18 | A | FC Rapid București | 1–3 | L |
| 09-13 | H | FC Botoșani | 1–1 | D |
| 09-07 | A | FC Voluntari | 0–1 | L |
| 08-29 | H | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 0–1 | L |
| 08-24 | A | SC Oțelul Galați | 0–1 | L |
| 08-14 | H | FCV Farul Constanța | 1–1 | D |
| 08-09 | A | Universitatea Craiova | 1–0 | W |
| 07-31 | H | FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | 1–0 | W |
| 07-24 | H | FC Petrolul Ploiești | 1–0 | W |
| 07-17 | A | FCSB | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Argeș should beat third-tier CSM Deva in a low-key international-break friendly, but injuries and players away on international duty weaken them, so the one lean is at least two goals in the match.
Data (pack): Argeș are poor in front of goal: 0.6 goals scored per game in their last 10 (1.2 xG), 10% over 2.5, and they failed to score in 40%. Their games have mostly been tight top-flight matches. Rest is 12 days. The pack holds no data on CSM Deva, no referee, no head-to-head and no goals prices. The only price is 1X2: Argeș 1.17, which works out to 77.8% once the margin is removed.
Web: This is a friendly at Albota during the international break (arges-sport.ro). Deva are 3rd in Liga 3 Series 7, two divisions below Argeș. Argeș have had up to nine injured players, and coach Dani Coman called it unprecedented. Several players are away with national teams (Sadriu, Rață, Nikić), so expect a mixed XI and lots of substitutions. Last October the same friendly finished 4-1 to Argeș (3-1 at half-time).
Model: Chances created are about 2.1 for Argeș and 0.7 for Deva. Top-flight-against-third-tier friendlies are usually more open than Argeș's league games. I stay near the market on the result: 76/15/9. Over 1.5 goals comes out around 76%. I claim 70% on the pick because Argeș score so rarely and because of the lesson against overclaiming.
Pick: Over 1.5 goals has no price in the pack. Three signals point the same way: the two-division gap, last year's 4-1 and the loose nature of friendlies. I skipped corners and cards: the pack has no Deva data, friendlies are officiated leniently, and stats coverage for friendlies may be missing, which also puts settlement at risk.
Uncertainties: The XI is unknown, friendlies can be shortened or played in unusual formats, and Deva's current strength is unverified. Argeș's own attack is weak.
Analysed by opus with web research.