Dorking Wanderers vs Southall FC prediction
Our picks
Match result
Dorking Wanderers to win
Two divisions higher, unbeaten in six, and now at home in the replay.
Why this pick
Two divisions higher, unbeaten in six, and now at home in the replay.
Dorking are two divisions above Southall (National League South vs Isthmian South Central), are unbeaten in six and have won or drawn every game since late August, scoring 20 in ten. Home advantage at Meadowbank adds to a gap that the first tie disguised: Dorking led twice away and only a saved penalty and an 84th-minute header kept Southall alive.
- Actual
- 3-3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
65%Team goalsDorking Wanderers over 1.5 goalsWon
Dorking have scored two or more in six of their ten 2026-27 games, including 3-0, 4-1, 3-3, 3-3 and the 2-2 at Southall. Against a step-four defence that shipped two to them already and conceded in both cup ties, an expected two-and-a-bit goals at home makes 2+ the likeliest outcome.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
64%Total goalsover 2.5 goalsWon
Two independent signals: Dorking's own season is goal-soaked (three 3-3s, a 4-1, a 2-3 — six of ten over 2.5) and Southall have gone over 1.5 in both their cup ties while scoring in each. Dorking's defence has kept only one clean sheet in ten this season, so even a comfortable win is unlikely to be a tight one.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Dorking, two divisions above Southall and unbeaten in six, should win a high-scoring replay.
- 1Dorking play two divisions above Southall and host this replay
- 2Dorking unbeaten in six but conceded in eight of ten
- 3First tie finished 2-2 with a missed penalty for Southall
Go deeper
What happened3–3 · 2 of 3 picks won
Final score
3–3
Goals
6 (we expected 3.3)
Corners
– (we expected 10.5)
Cards
0 (we expected 3.5)
Us vs the bookmakersAll our probabilities for this match.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dorking Wanderers win | 70% | – | – |
| Draw | 18% | – | – |
| Southall FC win | 12% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 55% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 18% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.00
Expected corners
10.5
Expected cards
3.5
Likeliest scores
2-1 (12%) · 2-0 (11%) · 3-1 (10%)
Late team news (6)First tie finished Southall 2-2 Dorking on 20 Sep: Rogalski 27' and Nikaj 32' for Dorking, Scott 30' and Hayes 84' for Southall…
First tie finished Southall 2-2 Dorking on 20 Sep: Rogalski 27' and Nikaj 32' for Dorking, Scott 30' and Hayes 84' for Southall; a Dorking goal was disallowed and Glenn Morris saved a Roberts penalty after Sayers fouled Scott.
2026-09-21reliability: highdwfc.co.uk
Dorking made two changes for the first tie: George Francomb and Dennon Lewis in for Harry Forster and Louie Annesley. No injuries or cards reported.
2026-09-21reliability: highdwfc.co.uk
Dorking's 2026-27 National League South record before the replay: 0-1, 0-0, 3-0, 2-3, 4-1, 1-0, 3-3, 3-3, 2-2 — 20 scored, 15 conceded in ten games, unbeaten in six.
2026-09-21reliability: highdwfc.co.uk
Southall FC play in the Isthmian League South Central Division (step 4), two divisions below Dorking's National League South; they beat Deal Town and Windsor & Eton in earlier qualifying rounds.
2026-09-21reliability: mediumen.wikipedia.org
Replay is at Meadowbank Stadium on 22 September 2026; the winner hosts/plays Chatham in the third qualifying round.
2026-09-21reliability: mediumbeinsports.com
Dorking's next league fixture is at home to Braintree Town on the following Saturday, a possible rotation motive.
2026-09-21reliability: mediumdwfc.co.uk
What could go wrongSouthall defend deep again, Dorking rotate tired legs before Braintree, and another draw kills the result pick.
Southall defend deep again, Dorking rotate tired legs before Braintree, and another draw kills the result pick.
What it couldn't verify
- Referee appointment for the replay
- Any injuries or suspensions from the first tie
- Southall FC's league form this season (no results page found)
- Corner, shot and foul data for both clubs
- Bookmaker prices — none in the pack
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Dorking Wanderers | Southall FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.8 | – |
| Goals for – against | 1.2 – 1.9 | – – – |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.91 – 1.78 | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 20% | – |
| Both teams scored | 60% | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | – |
| Corners for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 2.1 – 1.8 | – – – |
| Days since last match | 2 | 2 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 4.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-20 · Southall FC 2–2 Dorking Wanderers
Absences
Dorking Wanderers
None reported
Southall FC
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is –%.
Last 10 games — Dorking Wanderers
| 09-20 | A | Southall FC | 2–2 | D |
| 04-20 | H | Hartlepool United | 3–4 | L |
| 04-13 | A | Rochdale | 1–1 | D |
| 04-11 | A | Wealdstone | 2–4 | L |
| 04-06 | H | Altrincham FC | 0–0 | D |
| 04-01 | A | Aldershot Town | 1–1 | D |
| 03-29 | H | Bromley | 0–2 | L |
| 03-23 | A | Barnet | 0–6 | L |
| 03-16 | H | Solihull Moors | 1–1 | D |
| 03-12 | A | Southend United | 0–2 | L |
Last 10 games — Southall FC
| 09-20 | H | Dorking Wanderers | 2–2 | D |
| 09-06 | H | Cobham FC | 2–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Back Dorking Wanderers to finish the job at Meadowbank: two divisions higher, unbeaten in six and scoring freely, though their leaky defence keeps goals flowing.
## Data
The pack's "last 10 home" block for Dorking is stale: those games are February–April 2026 in the National League, the season they were relegated (2-2-6 at home, 1.9 conceded per game). Their only 2026-27 entry here is the 2-2 at Southall. Goal timing shows Dorking leak late (goals against 61-90: 6 of 17 all-comps) and score after the break (4 of 10 in 46-60).
Southall's sample is two FA Cup games only: 2-1 over Cobham, 2-2 with Dorking. Both went over 1.5, both saw both teams score. No corner, shot, xG, foul or possession data exists for either club, and the referee is unannounced — so no corners or cards pick is defensible.
## News
Dorking's own site lists their 2026-27 record: 0-1, 0-0, 3-0, 2-3, 4-1, 1-0, 3-3, 3-3, 2-2 plus the cup 2-2 — 20 scored, 15 conceded in ten, six games unbeaten, and three 3-3s. Southall are an Isthmian South Central (step 4) side, Dorking National League South (step 2): a two-division gap. In the first tie Dorking led twice, had a goal disallowed, and Glenn Morris saved Roberts' penalty before Hayes equalised at 84'. No injury or suspension news surfaced for either side; both had two days' rest.
## Market
No prices in the pack. A step-2 side at home against step 4 is normally around 1.25–1.35, i.e. roughly 70-75% — I sit at 70%, shaded down because Southall have already matched them once and Dorking's defence concedes in nearly every game. Both attacks scoring plus Dorking's generosity pushes over 2.5 to ~64%, above a typical 55-58% price.
## Uncertainties
Zero venue history for Southall, no referee, and the chance Dorking rotate with a league game at Braintree on Saturday. Settlement is on 90 minutes; a level score then goes to extra time, which is the main way the win pick fails.
Analysed by opus with web research.