Thame United vs Exmouth Town prediction
Our picks
Total goals
over 1.5 goals
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
Why this pick
Both defences concede regularly and the first tie produced six goals.
Every one of Thame United's three recorded games produced at least four goals, and they have conceded in all of them. Exmouth Town scored three at Thame on Saturday and have found the net in two of three, all after half-time. Two leaky defences and a tie that already produced six goals; only a genuinely cagey replay gets under this line.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
64%Both teams to scoreyesWon
Thame have scored and conceded in every game in the window (100% both-score rate) and Exmouth shipped three at Thame on Saturday. Exmouth's home quality should get them a goal against a step-four defence, while Thame have shown they can hurt them. Below my usual 58% comfort only on sample size, but the rate signals line up.
- Actual
- BTTS yes
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
62%Total goalsover 2.5 goalsWon
Two independent signals: Thame have scored exactly three in each of their last two games and conceded 2.67 per game, with five of six goals against arriving after half-time; Exmouth are a division higher and score heavily in the second half, all five of their recorded goals coming from the 46th minute on. Expected total around 3.2.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Goals again in the replay: six last week, both defences soft. Back over 2.5.
- 1First tie finished 3-3; Thame have scored three in two straight games
- 2Replay is actually at Exmouth, who play a division higher
- 3Thame have conceded in every game, Exmouth in two of three
Go deeper
What happened3–1 · 3 of 3 picks won
Final score
3–1
Goals
4 (we expected 3.2)
Corners
– (we expected 10.5)
Cards
0 (we expected 3.5)
Us vs the bookmakersAll our probabilities for this match.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thame United win | 23% | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – |
| Exmouth Town win | 53% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 64% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 26% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.85
Expected corners
10.5
Expected cards
3.5
Likeliest scores
2-1 Exmouth (12%) · 1-1 (11%) · 2-0 Exmouth (9%)
Late team news (6)The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is…
The replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local (Force4Local) Stadium, Wednesday 19:45 local — the pack's home/away labelling is reversed.
2026-09-19reliability: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Exmouth Town are unbeaten in the league with three wins after an opening draw at Bideford; they face Dorchester away on Saturday and Weymouth next Wednesday.
2026-09-19reliability: highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth Town won 2-1 at Barnstaple Town the previous Tuesday — a third competitive game in nine days going into the replay.
2026-09-19reliability: highexmouthjournal.co.uk
Exmouth's XI on Saturday: Wonnacott, Belsten, Cann, Edwards, Morison, Landricombe, Knowles, Denny, Slater, Steer, Bath; no injuries or suspensions reported.
2026-09-19reliability: mediumexmouth-townfc.co.uk
A penalty was awarded and converted by Tom Bath in the first tie, and Ross Edwards equalised in the 94th minute from an Owen Johnson corner.
2026-09-19reliability: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
Thame United's scorers in the first tie were Jack Tutton, Harry Alexander and Greg Hackett.
2026-09-19reliability: highexmouth-townfc.co.uk
What could go wrongA cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
A cagey, cautious replay on a heavy pitch, decided late or by penalties, kills the goals lines.
What it couldn't verify
- Referee appointment
- Thame United injury/suspension list and expected XI
- Whether Exmouth rotate ahead of Saturday's league trip to Dorchester
- Any corner, card, shot or possession data for either club
- Weather and pitch conditions
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Thame United | Exmouth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 2.3 – 2.7 | 1.5 – 1.5 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 0.0 – 0.0 | 0.0 – 0.0 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 6.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-19 · Thame United 3–3 Exmouth Town
Absences
Thame United
None reported
Exmouth Town
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is –%.
Last 10 games — Thame United
| 09-19 | H | Exmouth Town | 3–3 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Reading City | 3–2 | W |
| 10-01 | H | Oxford City | 1–3 | L |
Last 10 games — Exmouth Town
| 09-19 | A | Thame United | 3–3 | D |
| 09-09 | H | Banbury United | 2–1 | W |
| 09-05 | A | Banbury United | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Exmouth Town host this replay a division above Thame and should edge it, but with both defences leaking the goals markets are the cleaner play — back over 2.5.
## Data
Tiny samples: three games each, no shots, corners, cards or possession. Thame United have scored three in each of their last two (3-3, 3-2) but conceded 2.67 per game; every game in the window went over 3.5 and every one saw both score. Their goals against cluster late: 5 of 6 after half-time, three in the 61-90 window. Exmouth Town are steadier (1-2-0, 1.67 for, 1.33 against) and score almost exclusively after the break — all five recorded goals came from the 46th minute on, none in the first half. The one meeting, four days ago, was 3-3 with Exmouth equalising at 90+4. No cards or penalties are recorded in the feed for either side, and the referee is not announced.
## News
The pack has the venue the wrong way round: the replay is at Exmouth Town's Search4Local Stadium, 19:45 local, not at Thame. Exmouth are a division above (Southern League Premier South — their fixture list has Dorchester and Weymouth), unbeaten in the league with three wins and an opening draw at Bideford. Their reported XI from Saturday was full strength, with Wonnacott in goal and Bath, Steer and Edwards scoring; no injuries or suspensions reported. Exmouth do face a third game in nine days and Dorchester away on Saturday, so some rotation is possible. Thame's goals came from Tutton, Alexander and Hackett.
## Market
No prices in the pack. On level and venue I make Exmouth around 53%, draw 24%, Thame 23% — a modest favourite, not a strong one, since Thame already matched them for 90 minutes. That gap is too small to back at an unknown price. The goals case is firmer: 3.2 total expected, over 2.5 near 62%, over 1.5 near 84%, both scoring around 64%.
## Uncertainties
No corner, card or shot data at all, referee unknown, and a replay can be tighter than the original. Rotation by Exmouth with a league trip on Saturday is the main unmodelled risk.
Analysed by opus with web research.