Crowborough Athletic vs Hampton & Richmond Borough prediction
Our picks
Team goals
Hampton & Richmond Borough over 0.5 goals
Two divisions higher, scored three on Saturday, against a side yet to keep a clean sheet.
Why this pick
Two divisions higher, scored three on Saturday, against a side yet to keep a clean sheet.
Hampton play two levels above Crowborough, scored three at home in the first tie and failed to score only once in ten logged games. Crowborough have conceded in every game on record, including three at Whyteleafe and one at home, with no clean sheets in either sample.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
60%Both teams to scoreyesWon
Crowborough have scored and conceded in all three logged games (100% both-scored, no clean sheets) and put three past this exact opponent three days ago. Hampton concede 2.4 per game in the pack window and are without a suspended player plus injured Siziba, while Crowborough's long-throw routine already produced two goals in the first tie. Hampton, two divisions higher, scored in nine of ten logged games.
- Actual
- BTTS yes
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
59%Total goalsover 2.5 goalsWon
The first meeting brought six goals. Hampton's window shows 80% over 2.5 and 2.4 conceded per game; Crowborough are 67% over 2.5 with 2.33 scored and 2.0 conceded across their three games. A favourite chasing the tie against a defence that has not shut anyone out points to an open game rather than a cagey one.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Goals again: back both teams to score after the wild 3-3 first meeting.
- 1First tie finished 3-3; neither defence has kept a clean sheet lately
- 2Hampton miss a suspended player and injured Siziba; manager hints at changes
- 3Crowborough score from Mvongo's long throws, a real leveller at home
Go deeper
What happened3–1 · 3 of 3 picks won
Final score
3–1
Goals
4 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
– (we expected 10.0)
Cards
0 (we expected 4.5)
Us vs the bookmakersAll our probabilities for this match.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crowborough Athletic win | 28% | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – |
| Hampton & Richmond Borough win | 48% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 60% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.75
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
4.5
Likeliest scores
1-2 (11%) · 1-1 (10%) · 0-2 (8%)
Late team news (8)Hampton's Jackson picked up a second yellow card in the 3-3 first tie and is suspended for the replay.
Hampton's Jackson picked up a second yellow card in the 3-3 first tie and is suspended for the replay.
2026-09-20reliability: lowhrbfc.net
Zanda Siziba remains injured (hurt at AFC Totton) and is expected out around another week.
2026-09-20reliability: lowhrbfc.net
Manager Dowse hinted at lineup changes for the replay, including the Mather-Grego-Cox strike pairing.
2026-09-20reliability: lowhrbfc.net
Crowborough play in Isthmian League South East (step 4), sit 19th with three points from five league games; Hampton are National League South, two steps higher.
2026-09-18reliability: mediumhamrichfc.com
Crowborough's cup run: 5-0 v Greenwich, 3-0 v Epsom & Ewell, 1-1 then 3-2 replay win over Whyteleafe; key men Elliot Duncan (6 goals in 10), Samuel-Smike, Forster.
2026-09-18reliability: mediumhamrichfc.com
Hampton recently drew 1-1 with unbeaten Chelmsford City (Mather scored) and won 2-0 at Farnborough.
2026-09-18reliability: mediumhamrichfc.com
In the 3-3 draw, Jasper Mather scored for Hampton after three minutes; Crowborough's second-half goals by Duncan and Hutcheon both came from Lucas Mvongo's long throws.
2026-09-19reliability: highthenonleaguefootballpaper.com
Referee for the replay not announced in any source found.
2026-09-22reliability: medium
What could go wrongHampton's stronger squad settles it early, Crowborough shut up shop and lose a tight 0-1.
Hampton's stronger squad settles it early, Crowborough shut up shop and lose a tight 0-1.
What it couldn't verify
- Referee appointment
- Confirmed or probable lineups for either side
- Crowborough injury/suspension list
- Corner, shot, foul and card data (absent for every logged game)
- Bookmaker prices for any market
- Weather and pitch conditions
- Football Web Pages results page returned HTTP 403
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Crowborough Athletic | Hampton & Richmond Borough | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals for – against | 1.0 – 1.0 | 1.4 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Corners for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 0.0 – 0.0 | – – – |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 6.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-19 · Hampton & Richmond Borough 3–3 Crowborough Athletic
Absences
Crowborough Athletic
None reported
Hampton & Richmond Borough
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is –%.
Last 10 games — Crowborough Athletic
| 09-19 | A | Hampton & Richmond Borough | 3–3 | D |
| 09-09 | A | AFC Whyteleafe | 3–2 | W |
| 09-05 | H | AFC Whyteleafe | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Hampton & Richmond Borough
| 09-19 | H | Crowborough Athletic | 3–3 | D |
| 11-08 | H | Oldham Athletic | 2–3 | L |
| 11-12 | H | Oldham Athletic | 1–2 | L |
| 10-26 | A | Gloucester City | 1–3 | L |
| 10-12 | H | Arlesey Town | 5–1 | W |
| 09-28 | H | Bedford Town | 1–0 | W |
| 10-06 | A | Bury Town FC | 0–4 | L |
| 09-22 | A | Walthamstow | 1–0 | W |
| 10-01 | A | Arlesey Town | 2–6 | L |
| 10-09 | A | Harrow Borough | 1–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Hampton & Richmond are two divisions better and should edge the replay, but a 3-3 first tie, leaky defences and two missing visitors point to another open, high-scoring night.
(a) Data pack
Tiny, patchy samples. Crowborough have only 3 logged games: 3-3 at Hampton, 3-2 at Whyteleafe, 1-1 at home to Whyteleafe — 100% both-teams-scored, no clean sheets, no failed-to-score, 2.33 goals for and 2.0 against per game. Their goals cluster late (all six scored after 46'; all three conceded 61-75'). Hampton's 10-game window mixes in older seasons: 1.7 scored, 2.4 conceded per game, 80% over 2.5, 70% both scored, 20% clean sheets, 2.5 yellows and 0.5 reds per game. Corner, shot and foul data are missing for every game, and no referee is announced — so no card or corner pick is defensible. H2H: one meeting, 3-3, six goals.
(b) News
Crowborough are Isthmian South East (step 4), 19th with three points from five league games, but on a strong cup run (5-0, 3-0, 1-1 then 3-2 replay win over Whyteleafe). Hampton are National League South, two steps higher, recently 2-0 at Farnborough and 1-1 with unbeaten Chelmsford. Hampton lose Jackson to a second yellow from the first tie, Siziba stays injured, and manager Dowse has hinted at changes — mild levellers. Crowborough's two goals both came from Lucas Mvongo's long throws, a weapon that suits a tight home ground.
(c) Market
No prices in the pack. A step-2 side away at a step-4 side normally sits near 55-62%; the suspension, rotation talk and Crowborough's cup momentum push me to about 48% Hampton, 24% draw at 90 minutes. Totals carry the case: 3.0 expected goals gives 59% over 2.5 and 60% both scoring, supported independently by the 3-3, Crowborough's zero clean sheets and Hampton's 2.4 conceded per game.
(d) Uncertainties
Three games of Crowborough data, a corrupted Hampton window, unknown referee, unknown lineups, midweek replay fatigue. Extra time possible — picks settle on 90 minutes.
Analysed by opus with web research.