Farnborough vs Uxbridge prediction
Our picks
Team goals
Farnborough over 0.5 goals
Farnborough blank in under a third of home games and face lower-division opponents.
Why this pick
Farnborough blank in under a third of home games and face lower-division opponents.
Farnborough failed to score in only 29% of their last seven home games and average 1.29 goals there, and they are a division above Uxbridge with home advantage in a replay they are expected to win. They found the net at Uxbridge on Friday despite a poor overall run, and have added a loan striker from Luton to the attacking options. Uxbridge's defensive record (one clean sheet in two games, against a far weaker opponent) offers no evidence of a side that shuts out step-two opposition away from home.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
77%Total goalsover 1.5 goalsWon
Two independent signals point the same way. Farnborough cleared 1.5 goals in 86% of their last seven home games and 90% of their last ten overall, conceding 1.14 per home game while scoring 1.29 — they are rarely involved in tight, low-event matches at this ground. Uxbridge, in their two recorded games, went over 1.5 both times, scored first in both and average 2.5 goals for. The tie itself produced four goals three days ago, with the sides trading blows from the fourth minute onwards. Both teams also carry a heavy late-goal pattern (Farnborough: three of their recorded goals for and three against in the 76-90 window), which keeps the match live even if it starts slowly.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back at least two goals: the first meeting had four, and both attacks keep scoring.
- 1First meeting finished 2-2, with goals at both ends
- 2Farnborough are a division higher and at home, but out of form
- 3Home price at 1.36 matches our own number, so no edge
Go deeper
What happened0–2 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
0–2
Goals
2 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
– (we expected 9.5)
Cards
2 (we expected 3.5)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farnborough win | 64% | 66% | -2 |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Uxbridge win | 17% | 16% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 54% | – | – |
| Penalty in the match | 18% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 9% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.20
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
3.5
Likeliest scores
2-1 (12%) · 1-1 (11%) · 2-0 (10%)
Late team news (7)First tie finished Uxbridge 2-2 Farnborough on 19 September; Nnadozie and Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, Michael Reindorf…
First tie finished Uxbridge 2-2 Farnborough on 19 September; Nnadozie and Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, Michael Reindorf equalised deep in stoppage time.
2026-09-19reliability: highthenonleaguefootballpaper.com
Replay is at Farnborough's Saunders Transport Community Stadium, Tuesday 22 September, 19:45 UK; winner faces Hungerford Town in Qualifying Round 3.
2026-09-21reliability: highfarnboroughfc.co.uk
Farnborough have signed 19-year-old striker Tate Xavier-Jones on loan from Luton Town, adding attacking options.
2026-09-01reliability: mediumfarnboroughfc.co.uk
Farnborough lost 0-1 at home to Salisbury in National League South on 12 September, underlining poor recent league form.
2026-09-12reliability: mediumfootballwebpages.co.uk
Uxbridge compete in the Southern League Premier South, one step below Farnborough's National League South.
2026-09-22reliability: mediumfootballwebpages.co.uk
Uxbridge are running a supporters' coach to Farnborough, departing 5pm — short midweek trip, no unusual travel burden.
2026-09-21reliability: highuxbridgefc.com
Farnborough issued a statement that a prospective full buyer has not advanced proceedings; the club is seeking sale or investment.
2026-09-01reliability: mediumfarnboroughfc.co.uk
What could go wrongA cagey replay with extra time looming: one early goal and a shut-down second half.
A cagey replay with extra time looming: one early goal and a shut-down second half.
What it couldn't verify
- No referee appointment found for the replay
- No injury or suspension list published by either club
- No probable line-ups; rotation intentions unknown
- Uxbridge's 2026-27 league results and away form could not be retrieved (site returned 403)
- No corner, shot or foul data exists for either side in the pack
- Weather for the evening kickoff not verified
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Farnborough | Uxbridge | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.1 | – |
| Goals for – against | 1.3 – 1.1 | – – – |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 43% | – |
| Both teams scored | 43% | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | – |
| Corners for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | – – – | – – – |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 4.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-19 · Uxbridge 2–2 Farnborough
Absences
Farnborough
None reported
Uxbridge
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Farnborough
1.36
Draw
5.00
Uxbridge
5.75
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 10.9%.
Last 10 games — Farnborough
| 09-19 | A | Uxbridge | 2–2 | D |
| 11-26 | A | Wrexham | 1–4 | L |
| 11-05 | A | Sutton United | 2–0 | W |
| 10-01 | H | Eastbourne Borough FC | 0–2 | L |
| 09-28 | A | Eastbourne Borough FC | 0–0 | D |
| 09-22 | H | Eastleigh | 1–2 | L |
| 10-05 | H | Maidenhead United | 2–3 | L |
| 10-01 | A | Maidenhead United | 1–1 | D |
| 10-26 | A | Dover Athletic | 0–5 | L |
| 10-23 | H | Dover Athletic | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Uxbridge
| 09-19 | H | Farnborough | 2–2 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Haywards Heath Town | 3–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Farnborough should edge this FA Cup replay at home, but the price is fair — the real value is in goals, with both sides scoring freely in a 2-2 first meeting.
## Data
Farnborough's 10-game window is a patchwork reaching back into earlier seasons (1-4-5, 0.7 pts/g, 1.0 goals for, 2.0 against) — treat it as noisy. The venue split is more useful: 2-2-3 at home, 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded per game, failed to score only 29% of the time, over 1.5 goals in 86% of home games and 90% of the last ten overall. Uxbridge have only two games in the feed (2.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game, scored first in both) and zero away history — essentially no away baseline. Timing is late-heavy on both sides: Farnborough's goals for cluster 76-90 (3 of 5 recorded) and so do their goals against (3). Corners, shots, fouls and possession are all missing; cards are close to nil in the recorded games and the referee is not announced, so card and corner markets are unplayable here.
## News
The Non-League Paper's report on the 19 September 2-2 confirms Toby Nnadozie and Mason Bloomfield scored for Uxbridge, with Michael Reindorf rescuing Farnborough deep into stoppage time — an open, end-to-end tie. Farnborough's own site confirms the 19:45 UK replay and the reward: Hungerford Town in Qualifying Round 3. Farnborough have added striker Tate Xavier-Jones on loan from Luton. No injury or suspension news surfaced for either side; the club is also publicly seeking a sale, a background distraction rather than a team-sheet factor. Uxbridge sit one step below Farnborough (Southern League Premier South v National League South), a smaller gap than the replay format suggests.
## Market
1.36 on the home side implies 66.3% with margin removed; my number is 64%, so no bet there. The draw and away prices look fairly struck too. The goals markets are unpriced in the pack, which is where I lean: a 2.8-goal expectation puts over 1.5 near 77% and Farnborough to score near 78%.
## Uncertainty
Uxbridge's sample is two games. Replay caution and extra time looming can flatten the second half.
Analysed by opus with web research.