Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Iwaki FC prediction
Our picks
Home team second-half goals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima over 0.5 second-half goals
Sanfrecce score most of their goals after half-time and Iwaki concede most of theirs late.
Why this pick
Sanfrecce score most of their goals after half-time and Iwaki concede most of theirs late.
15 of Sanfrecce's 28 home goals came after the break. Iwaki conceded 14 of their 17 goals in the second half (all 7 away goals came after the 60th minute). The 2024 meeting saw four Sanfrecce goals from the 63rd minute on.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
63%Home team goalsSanfrecce Hiroshima over 1.5 goalsWon
Sanfrecce scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 home games (2.8 a game, 2.8 chances created a game across all competitions). Iwaki concede 1.8 a game in the pack, and they lost the only meeting 4-0. A Poisson model with 2.3 expected home goals gives about 67%; I trimmed it for likely cup rotation.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Sanfrecce to score twice or more: strong home attack against a second-tier side that leaks late goals.
- 1Sanfrecce scored 2.8 a game at home, failing to score in none of ten.
- 2Iwaki let in 14 of their 17 recent goals after half-time.
- 3Sanfrecce won the only previous meeting 4-0, with all goals after the break.
Go deeper
What happened4–0 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
4–0
Goals
4 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
4 (we expected 9.5)
Cards
4 (we expected 2.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 72% | 74% | -2 |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | +1 |
| Iwaki FC win | 11% | 10% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 83% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 42% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 9% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.75
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
2.6
Likeliest scores
2-0 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 3-0 (9%)
Late team news (3)Iwaki FC played second-division league games in August 2026 (9 and 29 Aug), so the pack's 42-day rest figure is likely a gap in…
Iwaki FC played second-division league games in August 2026 (9 and 29 Aug), so the pack's 42-day rest figure is likely a gap in the data feed.
2026-08-29reliability: mediumjleague.jp
Iwaki reached this round after an Emperor Cup second-round tie with Oita Trinita on 26 Aug 2026 (0-0 after 90 minutes per the pack).
2026-08-26reliability: mediumjleague.jp
Bartosch Gaul is listed as Sanfrecce Hiroshima manager for 2026.
2026reliability: mediumen.wikipedia.org
What could go wrongSanfrecce rest most of their starters for this cup tie and the reserves fail to pull away from Iwaki.
Sanfrecce rest most of their starters for this cup tie and the reserves fail to pull away from Iwaki.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups or the extent of Sanfrecce's cup rotation
- Iwaki FC injuries and recent second-division form
- Referee
- Iwaki corner and foul data
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Iwaki FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals for – against | 2.8 – 0.8 | 2.0 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.71 – 1.15 | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 75% |
| Corners for – against | 5.4 – 3.1 | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 0.9 – 1.1 | 1.5 – 1.0 |
| Days since last match | 18 | 42 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins · 4.0 goals per game.
- 2024-07-10 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–0 Iwaki FC
Absences
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
K. Yengi (injured: Thigh Injury)
Iwaki FC
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.22
Draw
5.48
Iwaki FC
9.46
Over 2.5 goals
1.47
Under 2.5 goals
2.52
Both score: yes
1.84
Both score: no
1.86
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 10.8%.
Last 10 games — Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| 09-19 | A | Avispa Fukuoka | 1–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Cerezo Osaka | 6–1 | W |
| 09-06 | A | Fagiano Okayama | 2–3 | L |
| 09-02 | H | Nagoya Grampus | 3–0 | W |
| 08-29 | A | Gamba Osaka | 0–0 | D |
| 08-26 | H | Okinawa SV | 4–1 | W |
| 08-22 | H | Kawasaki Frontale | 1–1 | D |
| 08-15 | A | Urawa Red Diamonds | 4–1 | W |
| 08-08 | H | JEF United Chiba | 3–0 | W |
| 06-06 | A | Kawasaki Frontale | 1–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Iwaki FC
| 08-26 | H | Oita Trinita | 0–0 | D |
| 06-11 | H | Blaublitz Akita | 1–2 | L |
| 07-10 | A | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0–4 | L |
| 06-12 | A | Blaublitz Akita | 2–0 | W |
| 06-07 | A | Tokushima Vortis | 1–2 | L |
| 09-23 | H | ReinMeer Aomori FC | 0–3 | L |
| 09-16 | H | Oyama SC | 4–0 | W |
| 05-25 | H | Sendai University | 2–3 | L |
| 05-26 | H | Sony Sendai FC | 1–2 | L |
| 07-12 | H | Shimizu S-Pulse | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Sanfrecce should beat second-tier Iwaki at home and score at least twice; their home attack and Iwaki's habit of conceding after half-time point to a clear home win.
Data (pack). Sanfrecce: 7-2-1 in their last 10, 8-2-0 in their last 10 at home, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 a game at home and never failing to score there. Chances created average 2.8 for and 0.7 against across all competitions, with 21 shots a game. At home, 15 of their 28 goals came after half-time. They won the only previous meeting 4-0 (July 2024), with all four goals coming after the 63rd minute. Iwaki's sample is poor: only Emperor Cup games spread over several seasons, with stats for 1 of 10. Still, they conceded 1.8 a game, and 14 of those 17 goals came after half-time. K. Yengi is out for Sanfrecce. No referee has been announced, and Iwaki have no corner or foul data, so corners and cards can't be judged.
News (web). No team news for this tie turned up. J.League pages show Iwaki playing second-division games in August 2026, and they reached this round after a 0-0 with Oita Trinita on 26 August. That makes the pack's 42-day rest figure look like a feed gap, not a real layoff. Sanfrecce have had 18 days off, so they should be fresh, but cup rotation is likely.
Market. Bookmakers make it 74/16.5/9.5, with over 2.5 goals at 63%. I stay close to that: 72/17/11. Our past forecasts have underrated scoring, so I put total expected goals at about 3.0 (2.3 for Sanfrecce, 0.75 for Iwaki). That fits the over-2.5 price, so I see no edge on the priced lines. Over 2.5 has no value at 1.47.
Picks. Sanfrecce over 1.5 goals: they scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 home games, Iwaki concede 1.8 a game, and the head-to-head was 4-0. A Poisson model gives about 67%; I trim that to 63% for rotation. Sanfrecce to score in the second half: their goals tilt late at home, and Iwaki concede most of theirs late. Model about 73%, trimmed to 70%.
Uncertainties. How much Sanfrecce rotate; Iwaki's form data is unreliable; a draw at 90 minutes means extra time, which doesn't count for these picks.
Analysed by opus with web research.