Urawa Red Diamonds vs RB Omiya Ardija prediction
Our pick
Home team goals
Urawa over 0.5 goals
Urawa scored in nine of ten recent games and face a tired Omiya defence that rarely keeps clean sheets.
Why this pick
Urawa scored in nine of ten recent games and face a tired Omiya defence that rarely keeps clean sheets.
Urawa scored in 9 of their last 10 (1.9/g, 15 shots/g). Omiya, though unbeaten in J2, conceded in most league games (28 conceded in the 2026 special league; only ~3 clean sheets in 9 J2 games this season). Omiya are on a 3-day turnaround that may force rotation, while Urawa are rested. Expected home goals ~1.6 gives ~77-80% by Poisson; shaded to 76%.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Urawa to score: they scored in 9 of 10 recent games and Omiya usually concede.
- 1Urawa games are open: 1.9 scored, 2.0 conceded per game lately.
- 2Omiya are unbeaten in the second division but play every three days.
- 3Result and goals prices look fair; no priced edge worth taking.
Go deeper
What happened3–2 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
3–2
Goals
5 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
7 (we expected 9.5)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.5)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa Red Diamonds win | 51% | 54% | -3 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| RB Omiya Ardija win | 23% | 21% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 20% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 8% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.15
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
3.5
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (9%)
Late team news (4)Emperor's Cup R3 Urawa vs RB Omiya on Oct 7, 18:00 local; first competitive Saitama derby in 9 years; teams drew 2-2 in a…
Emperor's Cup R3 Urawa vs RB Omiya on Oct 7, 18:00 local; first competitive Saitama derby in 9 years; teams drew 2-2 in a preseason friendly in August.
2026-09-16reliability: highsoccer-king.jp
RB Omiya unbeaten in J2 2026-27 (4W 5D, 4th); recent results: 5-1 Kofu (Sep 26), 1-1 at Miyazaki (Oct 4); also lost 1-3 at Tottori in League Cup Sep 2.
2026-10-07reliability: highjleague.jp
Omiya have a J2 Round 10 match on Oct 10, three days after this tie, so rotation is possible.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumjleague.jp
Omiya topped the special-league attack in spring 2026 (38 goals, 28 conceded), led by Izumi and Caprini.
2026-06-05reliability: mediumfootballchannel.jp
What could go wrongUrawa field a heavily rotated side and a cagey derby stays goalless for the home team.
Urawa field a heavily rotated side and a cagey derby stays goalless for the home team.
What it couldn't verify
- Predicted or confirmed lineups and rotation plans for either side
- Injury news for Urawa and Omiya
- Referee appointment
- Urawa's next fixture date
- Reliable Omiya shot/corner/card stats (pack data is wrong)
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Urawa Red Diamonds | RB Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals for – against | 1.7 – 1.4 | 0.9 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.35 – 2.39 | – – – |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 5.6 – 5.0 | – – – |
| Yellows for – against | 1.0 – 1.8 | 0.8 – 0.6 |
| Days since last match | 18 | 42 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
19 meetings: 6 home wins, 7 draws, 6 away wins · 2.3 goals per game.
- 2026-08-01 · Urawa Red Diamonds 2–2 RB Omiya Ardija
- 2017-08-05 · Urawa Red Diamonds 2–2 RB Omiya Ardija
- 2017-04-30 · RB Omiya Ardija 1–0 Urawa Red Diamonds
- 2016-07-17 · Urawa Red Diamonds 2–2 RB Omiya Ardija
- 2016-05-08 · RB Omiya Ardija 0–1 Urawa Red Diamonds
Absences
Urawa Red Diamonds
None reported
RB Omiya Ardija
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Urawa Red Diamonds
1.70
Draw
3.61
RB Omiya Ardija
4.28
Over 2.5 goals
1.71
Under 2.5 goals
2.07
Both score: yes
1.69
Both score: no
2.04
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 9.9%.
Last 10 games — Urawa Red Diamonds
| 09-19 | H | Tokyo Verdy | 3–1 | W |
| 09-13 | H | Fagiano Okayama | 1–2 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Kashima Antlers | 1–0 | W |
| 09-02 | A | Avispa Fukuoka | 3–2 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3–2 | W |
| 08-26 | H | Yamanashi Gakuin University Orions | 3–0 | W |
| 08-23 | A | Machida Zelvia | 1–3 | L |
| 08-15 | H | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1–4 | L |
| 08-07 | A | Gamba Osaka | 3–4 | L |
| 06-06 | H | Fagiano Okayama | 0–2 | L |
Last 10 games — RB Omiya Ardija
| 08-26 | H | Vanraure Hachinohe | 2–0 | W |
| 05-25 | H | Tsukuba University | 0–1 | L |
| 06-12 | A | Kyoto Sanga FC | 0–2 | L |
| 05-26 | A | Fukui United FC | 3–0 | W |
| 07-12 | A | Cerezo Osaka | 1–3 | L |
| 06-07 | A | JEF United Chiba | 1–0 | W |
| 06-22 | A | Kashima Antlers | 0–3 | L |
| 06-01 | A | FC Ryukyu | 4–1 | W |
| 06-09 | A | JEF United Chiba | 0–1 | L |
| 12-01 | H | Montedio Yamagata | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Urawa slight favourites in the first competitive Saitama derby in 9 years; the only line worth backing is Urawa to score, given their free-scoring, leaky recent games.
(a) Data pack. Urawa (J1) last 10: 5-0-5, goals 1.9/2.0 per game, xG 1.62/1.58, over 2.5 in 8/10, BTTS 7/10, failed to score only 1/10. At home: 1.7/1.4, over 2.5 6/10. They score heavily 16-45' (11 of 19). Rested 18 days (one game in 21). Corners total ~9.3-10.6/g; yellows ~3.2 combined/g. The Omiya block in the pack is unreliable: it's a mix of old Emperor Cup games across seasons with wrong rest data (says 42 days). H2H's 2026-08-01 2-2 was a preseason friendly.
(b) Web. J-League site: Omiya are 4th-placed and unbeaten in J2 2026-27 (4W 5D), played Oct 4 (1-1 at Miyazaki), next game Oct 10. They're scoring freely (5-1 Kofu, 4-1 Sapporo, 3-2 Imabari) but drew 0-0 twice in September. Soccer King: first competitive Saitama derby in 9 years, 18:00 local kickoff. No injury or lineup news found for either side.
(c) Market. 53.5/25.2/21.3 looks fair. A J1 home side against a strong J2 club that might rotate, but with derby motivation. I stay close: 51/26/23. Goals: expected 1.6 vs 1.15. Poisson plus the learned scoring bump gives over 2.5 ~57% (market 54.8) and BTTS ~57% (market 54.7). Neither gap is big enough to price. Urawa scoring is unpriced: 9/10 recent games scored, plus Omiya conceding in most J2 games (only ~3 clean sheets in 9). About 76%.
(d) Uncertainties. Both sides' rotation (Omiya on a 3-day turnaround); no lineups or referee; Omiya stats missing; extra time is irrelevant for 90-minute settlement but may make either side cautious late.
Analysed by opus with web research.