Kuopion Palloseura vs AC Oulu prediction
Our pick
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Referee averages almost five yellows a game, and both teams' games already run near four.
Why this pick
Referee averages almost five yellows a game, and both teams' games already run near four.
Referee Kontinen averages 4.89 yellows per game over 9 games this season (4.0 over his career). Both teams' recent games average about 3.8 to 4.0 yellows in total, and KuPS opponents pick up 2.4 per game. Blending these gives about 4.3 expected cards. Allowing for the extra spread in card counts, that puts over 3.5 at roughly 58%.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Small lean on over 3.5 cards because this referee averages almost five yellows a game; goals prices look fair.
- 1Oulu have lost three straight and scored 0.6 goals per game lately.
- 2Referee Kontinen shows 4.89 yellow cards per game this season.
- 3Our win and goals numbers sit right on the bookmaker prices.
Go deeper
What happened0–1 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–1
Goals
1 (we expected 2.4)
Corners
12 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
2 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuopion Palloseura win | 57% | 58% | -1 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| AC Oulu win | 18% | 18% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 29% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 30% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 8% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.85
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
4.3
Late team news (3)Match is Veikkausliiga Championship Group round 4 at Väre Areena, Kuopio; Oulu have lost their last 3 matches; no injuries listed.
Match is Veikkausliiga Championship Group round 4 at Väre Areena, Kuopio; Oulu have lost their last 3 matches; no injuries listed.
2026-10-08reliability: mediumfotmob.com
After 22 regular-season rounds KuPS led with 43 pts (Inter Turku 42); AC Oulu were 5th with 34 pts, so both are in the top-six championship group.
2026-10-08reliability: mediumen.wikipedia.org
KuPS host Trabzonspor in the Conference League on 15 October, a week after this match; no confirmed KuPS injuries.
2026-10-08reliability: lowstarting11.com
What could go wrongAfter a long break, a calm game where KuPS control the ball could finish with only two or three cards.
After a long break, a calm game where KuPS control the ball could finish with only two or three cards.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed or probable lineups for both sides
- Recent injury or suspension news for AC Oulu
- Why the pack's table (Oulu 8th, 25 played) differs from other sources
- Current championship-group standings and stakes
The dataKuopion PalloseuraWDDLLAC OuluLLLDW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Kuopion Palloseura | AC Oulu | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 2/12 | 8/12 |
| Points (played) | 48 (25) | 34 (25) |
| Form | WDDLL | LLLDW |
| Points per game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals for – against | 1.2 – 1.4 | 0.7 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.05 – 1.41 | 1.23 – 1.81 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 4.6 – 3.9 | 4.9 – 4.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.1 | 1.6 – 1.5 |
| Days since last match | 19 | 20 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
17 meetings: 14 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins · 3.1 goals per game.
- 2026-05-02 · AC Oulu 2–0 Kuopion Palloseura
- 2026-04-22 · Kuopion Palloseura 3–2 AC Oulu
- 2025-07-04 · AC Oulu 2–2 Kuopion Palloseura
- 2025-04-12 · Kuopion Palloseura 1–0 AC Oulu
- 2024-06-28 · AC Oulu 1–0 Kuopion Palloseura
Referee
Joona Kontinen (Brazil)
This season: 4.89 yellows and 22.8 fouls per game over 9 matches.
Last 9 matches: 4.89 yellows per game.
Absences
Kuopion Palloseura
None reported
AC Oulu
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Kuopion Palloseura
1.58
Draw
3.81
AC Oulu
5.17
Over 2.5 goals
1.89
Under 2.5 goals
1.87
Both score: yes
1.88
Both score: no
1.83
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 8.9%.
Last 10 games — Kuopion Palloseura
| 09-19 | A | VPS | 2–0 | W |
| 09-13 | H | HJK | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | A | IF Gnistan | 1–1 | D |
| 08-31 | A | Inter Turku | 0–1 | L |
| 08-27 | H | Shamrock Rovers | 1–0 | W |
| 08-23 | H | IFK Mariehamn | 2–4 | L |
| 08-20 | A | Shamrock Rovers | 1–1 | D |
| 08-16 | A | FC Lahti | 2–1 | W |
| 08-13 | A | Universitatea Craiova | 1–2 | L |
| 08-09 | H | Turun Palloseura | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — AC Oulu
| 09-18 | H | Inter Turku | 0–1 | L |
| 09-12 | H | IF Gnistan | 1–2 | L |
| 09-08 | A | VPS | 0–1 | L |
| 08-31 | H | SJK | 0–0 | D |
| 08-22 | A | FF Jaro | 1–0 | W |
| 08-16 | H | Inter Turku | 2–3 | L |
| 08-09 | H | HJK | 0–1 | L |
| 08-02 | H | Ilves | 1–0 | W |
| 07-25 | A | IFK Mariehamn | 1–1 | D |
| 07-18 | H | IF Gnistan | 0–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
KuPS are fair favourites at home against an Oulu side that has lost its last three, but the 1X2 and goals prices look right; the only lean is over 3.5 cards, driven by a strict referee.
Data (pack). KuPS are 2nd (GD +17, chances-created difference +13.8) but their form is flat: 3-4-3 in the last 10, 1.1 goals for and 1.1 against per game, and only 30% of games went over 2.5. At home they create a lot (xG 2.05 per game) but have failed to score in 40% of games. Oulu are worse: 2-2-6 in the last 10, 0.6 goals per game, no goal in 50% of games, and away they concede 1.6 per game, 12 of 16 in the first half. KuPS lead the head-to-head 7-1-2 over the last 10, though Oulu won 2-0 in May. Corners: KuPS average 4.6 for and 3.9 against at home, Oulu 4.9 for and 4.0 against away, so about 9 in total. That is too close to the 8.5 and 9.5 lines to back. Cards: KuPS games average 3.8 yellows and Oulu games 4.0. Referee Kontinen averages 4.89 yellows per game (9 games this season) and 4.0 over his career (97 in 24). He gave no reds this season.
News (web). FotMob lists this as Championship Group round 4. Wikipedia had Oulu 5th after the regular season, so both teams are in the top-six group (the pack's table position of 8th looks off). KuPS are fighting Inter Turku for the title. They also have a Conference League game against Trabzonspor on 15 Oct, so there may be mild rotation risk. I found no injury news for either side. Both teams come off a break of about 20 days.
Market. The no-margin prices are 58/24/18, and the Bzzoiro model matches them exactly. Recent goal numbers are low, but past results say we have underrated scoring, so I keep over 2.5 at about 50%, in line with the market. No priced market clears the 4-point edge bar. Cards: the referee's rate points to about 4.3 yellows, and with card counts spreading more than a simple model assumes, over 3.5 comes out at about 58%. That just clears the bar, so it is low confidence.
Uncertainties. I could not confirm lineups. The table data in the pack conflicts with other sources. Oulu's motivation in the top-six group is unclear. The referee sample is only 9 games.
Analysed by opus with web research.