Royale Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction
Our pick
Union second-half goals
Union over 0.5 second-half goals
Union nearly always score after half-time, and Sociedad concede most goals late.
Why this pick
Union nearly always score after half-time, and Sociedad concede most goals late.
Union scored after the break in 9 of their last 10 games (15 of 25 goals). Sociedad conceded after the break in 7 of 10 (14 of 18 goals, 12 after the hour). Union take 18 shots a game, and Sociedad allow 20.9 away from home. A second-half scoring rate of about 1.0 gives roughly 63–65%. Florucz's suspension is the main drag.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Union to score in the second half: they score late and Sociedad concede late.
- 1Union scored after half-time in 9 of their last 10 games.
- 2Sociedad conceded 14 of their last 18 goals after the break.
- 3Union lose their top scorer Florucz to suspension, so the match odds look fair.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
6 (we expected 9.1)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win | 40% | 41% | -1 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Real Sociedad win | 33% | 32% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – | – |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 26% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 21% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.25
Expected corners
9.1
Expected cards
4.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (8%)
Late team news (5)Union top scorer Raul Florucz (6 goals) suspended for this match.
Union top scorer Raul Florucz (6 goals) suspended for this match.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Union injured: Mac Allister, Sykes, Zorgane, Kricfalusi, Schoofs, Rodrigues, Hurtevent.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Real Sociedad without Odriozola and Aramburu, otherwise strong squad; Oyarzabal, Sucic, Guedes, Barrenetxea expected.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Flashscore lists Florucz and Zorgane as suspended for Union; no new late absences for Real Sociedad.
reliability: mediumflashscore.es
Match reportedly played in Leuven rather than Union's usual home ground.
reliability: lowlesnouvellesdufoot.fr
What could go wrongWithout the suspended Florucz, Union's attack goes quiet and Sociedad hold out or sit on a lead.
Without the suspended Florucz, Union's attack goes quiet and Sociedad hold out or sit on a lead.
What it couldn't verify
- Official Real Sociedad squad list
- Confirmed lineups
- Whether Zorgane is injured or suspended (sources conflict)
- Exact venue
The dataRoyale Union Saint-GilloiseWWLLWReal SociedadLLDWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 5/36 | 24/36 |
| Points (played) | 3 (1) | 0 (1) |
| Form | WWLLW | LLDWW |
| Points per game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 2.3 – 0.6 | 1.5 – 2.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.67 – 0.79 | 1.20 – 2.28 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 6.0 – 3.0 | 5.0 – 4.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.0 – 2.1 | 3.0 – 2.6 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Referee
Goga Kikacheishvili (Georgia)
This season: 4.08 yellows and 27.2 fouls per game over 12 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
A. Zorgane (injured: Unknown)
K. Mac Allister (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
K. Rodríguez (injured: Muscle Injury)
O. Kricfalusi (injured: Knock Injury)
R. Schoofs (injured: Knock Injury)
Real Sociedad
Á. Odriozola (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
J. Aramburu (injured: Muscle Injury)
L. Beitia (injured: Sprained Ankle)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
2.25
Draw
3.40
Real Sociedad
2.88
Both score: yes
1.53
Both score: no
2.38
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 8.6%.
Last 10 games — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
| 10-11 | H | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1–1 | D |
| 09-20 | A | Royal Antwerp FC | 2–0 | W |
| 09-17 | A | FC Viktoria Plzeň | 3–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Lommel SK | 5–0 | W |
| 09-05 | A | RC Sporting Charleroi | 3–2 | W |
| 09-02 | A | Sint-Truidense VV | 3–0 | W |
| 08-30 | H | RSC Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
| 08-15 | H | SV Zulte Waregem | 0–0 | D |
| 08-11 | A | Bodø/Glimt | 2–2 | D |
| 08-08 | A | KVC Westerlo | 5–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Real Sociedad
| 10-11 | H | Deportivo de A Coruña | 3–2 | W |
| 09-20 | A | Valencia | 3–2 | W |
| 09-17 | H | Bournemouth | 1–2 | L |
| 09-13 | H | Atlético Madrid | 0–3 | L |
| 09-07 | A | Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 09-03 | H | Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 08-29 | H | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 08-26 | A | Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 08-21 | A | Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 05-23 | A | Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Union are slight favourites at home but the prices look fair; the one lean is Union scoring after the break against a Real Sociedad side that leaks late goals.
Data (pack). Union are unbeaten in 10 (7-3-0), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.6 per game, with 60% clean sheets. They create a lot (18 shots a game, about 2.2 expected goals) and score late: 15 of 25 goals after half-time, 6 of them after the 75th minute. At home they concede 0.6 a game. Sociedad are 4-2-4. Away from home they average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded, allow 20.9 shots a game and keep no clean sheets. Their defending falls apart late: 14 of 18 goals conceded came after the break, 12 of them after the hour. Both sides have high red-card rates (0.4 a game each across all competitions). Referee Kikacheishvili averages 4.1 yellows a game. Corners: Union win 6.0 a game at home, Sociedad 5.0 away. After the usual downward adjustment that projects to about 9.1, which is no signal.
News (web). Sports Mole (13 Oct): Union's top scorer Raul Florucz (6 goals) is suspended, and up to 7 more are injured (Mac Allister, Sykes, Zorgane, Kricfalusi, Schoofs, Rodrigues, Hurtevent). Sociedad are missing only Odriozola and Aramburu and are otherwise in strong shape. The game is reportedly in Leuven. Flashscore lists Zorgane as suspended rather than injured; the sources disagree.
Market. The market has 41/27/32 and both sides scoring at 61%. My own numbers (about 1.65 v 1.25 expected goals, raised for the known scoring under-estimate) give 40/27/33 and 62% for both sides scoring. That is no priced edge. Florucz's absence slightly offsets Union's form edge.
Lean. Union to score in the second half. Union scored after the break in 9 of 10 games; Sociedad conceded after the break in 7 of 10. That is two independent signals. My second-half scoring rate for Union of about 1.0 goals gives roughly 63–65%.
Uncertainties. Thin Union squad and the loss of Florucz. Sociedad's possession-based approach could limit Union's chances. The injury and suspension lists differ between sources.
Analysed by opus with web research.