Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace prediction
Our picks
Goals O/U 2.5
over 2.5 goals
Both teams' recent home and away games went over 2.5 goals 80% of the time.
Why this pick
Both teams' recent home and away games went over 2.5 goals 80% of the time.
80% of games went over 2.5 in both venue splits, Lyon create 2.12 chances per game at home and Palace concede 1.9 goals per game away, and the learned correction says scoring is underrated. That gives 63% against 58.2% implied; missing strikers on both sides keep this low confidence.
- Odds
- 1.63
- Odds imply
- 58.2%
- Actual
- 5
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
74%First-half goalsover 0.5 first-half goalsWon
8/10 Lyon home games and 9/10 Palace away games had a first-half goal; Lyon home first halves average 1.7 goals and Palace concede 11 of 19 away goals before the break. Expected first-half goals of about 1.3 give roughly 74%.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back a first-half goal and over 2.5 goals: games at Lyon and Palace away games keep producing early, open scoring.
- 1Eight of Lyon's last 10 home games had a first-half goal.
- 2Nine of Palace's last 10 away games had a first-half goal.
- 3Both first-choice strikers, Openda and Mateta, are expected out, slightly limiting the scoring.
Go deeper
What happened3–2 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
3–2
Goals
5 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
8 (we expected 9.6)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.9)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 2.5 goals — we say 63%, bookmakers 58%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | -1 |
| Crystal Palace win | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 37% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Penalty in the match | 28% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 19% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.25
Expected corners
9.6
Expected cards
3.9
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 2-0 (7%)
Late team news (3)Loïs Openda (right-leg injury v Lens) expected to miss Palace match; serious injury ruled out; started all 10 games this season.
Loïs Openda (right-leg injury v Lens) expected to miss Palace match; serious injury ruled out; started all 10 games this season.
2026-10reliability: mediumafricasoccer.com
Lyon probable XI: Greif; Athekame, Mata, Kluivert, Abner; Tolisso, Sulc, Morton; Nuamah, Openda, Nakamura. Niakhaté doubtful, Ouédraogo out.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumafricasoccer.com
Palace: Mateta expected to miss, Henderson doubtful (Benitez in goal), Riad and Tomiyasu unavailable. Probable XI 3-4-3 with Sarr, Strand Larsen, Pino up front.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumafricasoccer.com
What could go wrongWithout Openda and Mateta, both attacks lack a finisher and a cagey 1-0 or 1-1 follows.
Without Openda and Mateta, both attacks lack a finisher and a cagey 1-0 or 1-1 follows.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed status of Openda (sources conflict)
- Fonseca/Glasner pre-match press conference quotes
- Rotation plans ahead of weekend league games
The dataOlympique LyonnaisWLDWWCrystal PalaceW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Olympique Lyonnais | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 12/36 | 2/36 |
| Points (played) | 3 (1) | 3 (1) |
| Form | WLDWW | W |
| Points per game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 2.2 – 1.4 | 1.2 – 1.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.12 – 1.34 | 1.77 – 1.56 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Corners for – against | 6.8 – 5.4 | 3.3 – 6.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.5 – 2.3 | 2.3 – 1.6 |
| Days since last match | 6 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Referee
Joao Pedro Pinheiro (Portugal)
This season: 4.47 yellows and 24.9 fouls per game over 51 matches.
Last 10 matches: 2.60 yellows per game.
Absences
Olympique Lyonnais
L. Openda (injured: Leg Injury)
M. Ouédraogo (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
M. Niakhaté (injured: Hamstring Injury)
N. Tagliafico (injured: Muscle Injury)
Crystal Palace
C. Riad (injured: Knee Injury)
D. Henderson (injured: Foot Injury)
J. Mateta (injured: Hamstring Injury)
T. Tomiyasu (injured: Calf Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Olympique Lyonnais
2.25
Draw
3.60
Crystal Palace
2.93
Over 2.5 goals
1.63
Under 2.5 goals
2.27
Both score: yes
1.53
Both score: no
2.40
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.4%.
Last 10 games — Olympique Lyonnais
| 10-09 | A | RC Lens | 1–2 | L |
| 09-19 | H | Stade Rennais | 4–0 | W |
| 09-16 | A | RSC Anderlecht | 2–1 | W |
| 09-12 | A | Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 09-04 | H | Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
| 08-26 | H | Fenerbahçe | 1–2 | L |
| 08-22 | A | Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 08-18 | A | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 08-11 | H | AC Sparta Praha | 3–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Crystal Palace
| 10-11 | H | Nottingham Forest | 3–1 | W |
| 09-20 | A | Leeds United | 0–0 | D |
| 09-17 | H | Lech Poznań | 4–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Ipswich Town | 2–3 | L |
| 09-08 | H | Middlesbrough | 3–0 | W |
| 09-05 | A | Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 08-28 | H | Manchester City | 1–4 | L |
| 08-22 | A | Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 05-27 | H | Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 | W |
| 05-24 | H | Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Lyon are slight favourites at home. The best angle is goals: both sides' recent games at these venues have been open and scored early, so back a first-half goal and, at lower confidence, over 2.5.
Data (pack)
- Lyon at home: 6-1-3 over the last 10, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 per game (chances created 2.12 vs 1.34). 80% of these games went over 2.5 goals and 60% had both sides scoring. 17 first-half goals came in those 10 games, and 8 of the 10 had a first-half goal.
- Palace away: 3-2-5, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 per game. 80% went over 2.5, and 11 of the 19 goals they conceded came before half-time, 8 of them between minutes 31 and 45. 9 of these 10 games had a first-half goal.
- Corners: games at Lyon average 12.2 corners and Palace away games 9.8, but the third-party model puts over 9.5 at only 50%, and past results say these forecasts overestimate corners. No pick.
- Cards: referee Pinheiro averages 4.47 yellows per game this season but only 2.6 in his last 10. Both teams pick up few cards, so the signals conflict. No pick.
News (web)
- Openda (Lyon's ever-present starter) is likely out with a leg injury, and Niakhaté is doubtful.
- For Palace, Mateta is out and Henderson is doubtful, so Benitez is expected in goal. Riad and Tomiyasu are unavailable.
- Palace are expected to start Strand Larsen up front with Sarr and Pino. Both attacks lose their main striker, which trims the goal outlook a little.
Market comparison
- I stay close to the market on the result: 43/25/32.
- Expected goals come from the third-party model (1.75–1.08), plus the learned scoring correction, minus a bit for the two missing strikers: about 3.0 in total.
- That gives over 2.5 at 63% against 58.2% implied, just above the 4-point bar. This is the lower-confidence pick.
- Both sides scoring: 64% vs 61.1%, below the bar.
- A first-half goal is about 74% (expected first-half goals ~1.3), backed by two independent venue signals (8/10 and 9/10).
Uncertainties
- Openda's status is not confirmed: one preview still lists him in the XI.
- This is a midweek game between league fixtures, so rotation is possible.
- Palace's away sample partly reaches back into last season.
Analysed by opus with web research.