Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Our picks
Home team goals
Bodø/Glimt over 0.5 goals
Bodø scored in all 10 recent home games; Dortmund rarely keep clean sheets away.
Why this pick
Bodø scored in all 10 recent home games; Dortmund rarely keep clean sheets away.
Bodø scored in 10 of their last 10 home games, averaging 3.1 goals and 2.96 expected goals. Dortmund kept clean sheets in only 40% of their away games and conceded 1.2 per game. The market's 70% on both sides scoring implies the home side scores about 83% of the time. The 0-5 at Bayern is the warning sign, so I stay below the market's implied figure.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
64%Away team second-half goalsDortmund over 0.5 second-half goalsLost
Dortmund scored 15 of their last 24 goals after half-time, 8 of them after the 76th minute. Bodø conceded 13 of 15 after half-time, 7 of them in the last 15 minutes. With about 1.65 expected Dortmund goals and roughly 62% of them after the break, the chance of a second-half goal is around 64%.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Bodø to score, and Dortmund to score in the second half. Both sides' goals cluster late.
- 1Bodø scored in every one of their last 10 home games.
- 2Dortmund score most goals after the break; Bodø concede late.
- 3Bodø's suspended centre-back Bjørtuft weakens a defence that leaked five against Bayern.
Go deeper
What happened1–0 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–0
Goals
1 (we expected 3.1)
Corners
13 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
2 (we expected 3.8)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt win | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 43% | 45% | -2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 30% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 24% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.65
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
3.8
Likeliest scores
1-2 (9%) · 2-1 (9%) · 1-1 (9%)
Late team news (5)Bodø centre-back Odin Luras Bjørtuft suspended after his red card against Bayern.
Bodø centre-back Odin Luras Bjørtuft suspended after his red card against Bayern.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumbvbbuzz.com
Bodø without Riisnæs, Mikkelsen and Evjen, all expected back late October.
2026-10-13reliability: highonefootball.com
Haitam Aleesami could come into the Bodø side.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Dortmund: Julian Ryerson doubtful after an injury on Norway duty; Emre Can out until November; Konstantelias out for the season; Mané and Lerma close to returning.
2026-10-13reliability: highonefootball.com
Guirassy expected to lead Dortmund's attack.
2026-10-13reliability: mediumsquawka.com
What could go wrongDortmund score early and sit deep in the cold, stopping Bodø scoring and slowing the second half.
Dortmund score early and sit deep in the cold, stopping Bodø scoring and slowing the second half.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Ryerson's final fitness status
- Confirmation that Urs Schnyder is the referee from an official source
The dataBodø/GlimtLWWWDBorussia DortmundWLWLL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 36/36 | 13/36 |
| Points (played) | 0 (1) | 3 (1) |
| Form | LWWWD | WLWLL |
| Points per game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals for – against | 3.1 – 0.8 | 1.9 – 1.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.96 – 0.60 | 1.63 – 1.34 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 8.3 – 1.4 | 4.0 – 5.2 |
| Yellows for – against | 0.6 – 2.1 | 2.4 – 1.9 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 5 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 4.0 goals per game.
- 2025-12-10 · Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Bodø/Glimt
Referee
Urs Schnyder (Switzerland)
This season: 4.25 yellows and 25.6 fouls per game over 44 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Bodø/Glimt
A. Mikkelsen (injured: Groin Injury)
H. Evjen (injured: Knee Injury)
M. Riisnaes (injured: Knee Injury)
Borussia Dortmund
F. Mané (injured: Thigh Injury)
G. Konstantelias (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Bodø/Glimt
3.02
Draw
4.03
Borussia Dortmund
2.08
Over 2.5 goals
1.34
Under 2.5 goals
3.13
Both score: yes
1.34
Both score: no
3.12
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.0%.
Last 10 games — Bodø/Glimt
| 10-10 | H | Kristiansund BK | 3–1 | W |
| 09-20 | A | SK Brann | 1–2 | L |
| 09-14 | H | Sandefjord Fotball | 3–2 | W |
| 09-10 | A | FC Bayern München | 0–5 | L |
| 09-04 | A | Fredrikstad FK | 2–1 | W |
| 08-30 | H | Rosenborg BK | 4–2 | W |
| 08-25 | H | NEC Nijmegen | 3–0 | W |
| 08-19 | A | NEC Nijmegen | 3–1 | W |
| 08-11 | H | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 2–2 | D |
| 08-08 | A | Vålerenga IF | 2–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Borussia Dortmund
| 10-09 | H | SV Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
| 09-19 | A | VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | SC Paderborn 07 | 3–0 | W |
| 09-08 | H | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 09-05 | A | TSG Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 09-01 | A | Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 | 5–0 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Hamburger SV | 2–0 | W |
| 05-16 | A | SV Werder Bremen | 2–0 | W |
| 05-08 | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–2 | W |
| 05-03 | A | Borussia M'gladbach | 0–1 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
A close, high-scoring game in which Bodø's strong home form keeps Dortmund's edge small. The best value is in goals: Bodø to score, and Dortmund to score after half-time.
(a) Data (pack)
- Bodø at home: 9-1-0, 3.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. They scored in all 10 games, created 2.96 expected goals per game and allowed 0.6. They had 68% possession and 8.3 corners per game against 1.4.
- Those home numbers come mostly from the Norwegian league. Their only big-club test this season was a 0-5 loss away to Bayern, with 0.2 expected goals for and a red card.
- Dortmund away: 1.9 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with a 40% clean-sheet rate.
- Timing pattern:
- Dortmund scored 15 of their last 24 goals after half-time (8 of them after the 76th minute).
- Bodø conceded 13 of 15 after half-time (7 of them after the 76th minute).
- Last season's meeting in Dortmund ended 2-2.
- Referee Schnyder averages 4.25 yellows per game, but both teams show few cards. Bodø's opponents get 0.5 reds per game.
(b) News (web)
- Bodø: centre-back Bjørtuft is suspended after his red card against Bayern. Riisnæs, Mikkelsen and Evjen are out.
- Dortmund: Can is out until November and Konstantelias for the season. Ryerson is a doubt after an injury on Norway duty. Mané and Lerma are close to returning.
- Overall this is a slight negative for Bodø's defence, with no big changes for Dortmund's attack.
(c) Market
- The 1X2 prices (31/23/45) look fair. I shade Bodø up a little for their artificial pitch, the cold (6°C, windy) and their home record: 33/24/43.
- Over 2.5 goals (70%) and both sides scoring (70%) are already priced high. My ~3.15 expected goals gives about 71% and 71%, which is no priced edge.
- Team and half lines are unpriced:
- Bodø to score: about 78% (home scoring record, Dortmund's 40% away clean-sheet rate, market both-sides-scoring at 70%).
- Dortmund to score in the second half: about 64% (their late scoring plus Bodø's late conceding).
(d) Uncertainties
- Bodø's home numbers come against weaker opposition.
- Dortmund's lineup if Ryerson is out.
- An early Dortmund goal could change how the game is played.
- Corners: expected about 9.0 after the downward correction, so no pick. Cards: about 3.8, so no pick.
Analysed by opus with web research.