AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction
Our pick
Total cards
over 3.5 cards
Strict referee at 4.5 yellows recently, and Madrid's away games average nearly six cards.
Why this pick
Strict referee at 4.5 yellows recently, and Madrid's away games average nearly six cards.
Letexier averages 4.06 yellows a game this season and 4.5 over his last 10. Madrid's away games average about 5.8 yellows (2.7 for, 3.1 against). Roma average 1.7 yellows a game and commit 12-13 fouls. Add a high-stakes Champions League game with Mourinho returning to his former club and we expect about 4.6 cards.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back over 3.5 cards: a strict referee meets Madrid's card-heavy away games. The result and goals prices look fair.
- 1Roma are unbeaten in ten home games, but Madrid score freely and lead on quality.
- 2Roma's first-choice goalkeeper Svilar is out, and Madrid get Güler, Camavinga and Bernardo back.
- 3Letexier showed 4.5 yellows a game in his last ten matches.
Go deeper
What happened3–4 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
3–4
Goals
7 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
14 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
4 (we expected 4.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Real Madrid win | 47% | 49% | -2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | -1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 46% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 28% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 20% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.60
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
4.6
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 1-2 (10%) · 2-1 (8%)
Late team news (6)Mile Svilar is definitely out with a fracture; Gollini will start in goal for Roma.
Mile Svilar is definitely out with a fracture; Gollini will start in goal for Roma.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Cristante is doubtful with a knee problem that kept him out against Como.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Malen's ban is domestic only, so he is expected to lead Roma's attack.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Güler, Camavinga and Bernardo Silva are back from UEFA bans, and Vinícius is available despite an upcoming La Liga ban.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Madrid are without Militão, Mendy, Rodrygo (out until early 2027) and Asencio.
2026-10-12reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Mourinho manages Real Madrid and faces his former club Roma.
2026-10-13reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongMadrid take an early lead and control possession, the game goes quiet and Letexier lets play flow.
Madrid take an early lead and control possession, the game goes quiet and Letexier lets play flow.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether Cristante is fit
The dataAS RomaDLWLLReal MadridWLLWW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| AS Roma | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 22/36 | 16/36 |
| Points (played) | 1 (1) | 3 (1) |
| Form | DLWLL | WLLWW |
| Points per game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals for – against | 2.5 – 1.0 | 1.4 – 1.5 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.84 – 1.07 | 1.88 – 1.27 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.2 – 3.0 | 5.4 – 4.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 2.3 | 2.7 – 3.1 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
12 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 8 away wins · 2.8 goals per game.
- 2018-11-27 · AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid
- 2018-09-19 · Real Madrid 3–0 AS Roma
- 2016-03-08 · Real Madrid 2–0 AS Roma
- 2016-02-17 · AS Roma 0–2 Real Madrid
- 2008-03-05 · Real Madrid 1–2 AS Roma
Referee
François Letexier (France)
This season: 4.06 yellows and 21.8 fouls per game over 51 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.50 yellows per game.
Absences
AS Roma
B. Cristante (injured: Knee Injury)
K. Koulierakis (injured: Leg Injury)
M. Svilar (injured: Broken Finger)
M. Bah (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Real Madrid
É. Militão (injured: Thigh Injury)
R. Asencio (injured: Leg Injury)
Rodrygo (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
AS Roma
3.55
Draw
3.93
Real Madrid
1.92
Over 2.5 goals
1.43
Under 2.5 goals
2.72
Both score: yes
1.41
Both score: no
2.78
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.7%.
Last 10 games — AS Roma
| 10-11 | A | Como | 0–0 | D |
| 09-19 | H | Inter | 2–2 | D |
| 09-14 | A | Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 09-10 | A | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 08-31 | A | Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 08-24 | H | Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 05-24 | A | Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
| 05-17 | H | Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 05-10 | A | Parma | 3–2 | W |
Last 10 games — Real Madrid
| 10-10 | H | Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 09-20 | A | Atlético Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 09-15 | A | Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
| 09-08 | H | Inter | 2–1 | W |
| 09-04 | A | Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 08-30 | H | Málaga CF | 4–0 | W |
| 08-26 | H | Real Sociedad | 4–1 | W |
| 08-22 | A | Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 05-23 | H | Athletic Club | 4–2 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Real Madrid are fair favourites in Rome and the price matches our view, so the only lean is over 3.5 cards: a strict referee, a high-stakes game and Madrid's card-heavy away games.
Data (pack). Roma are 6-4-0 in their last 10 home games, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 a game. They score first often and have a 50% clean-sheet rate at home. Nearly all their goals conceded come after half-time (6 of 6 in the all-competitions window). Their recent attacking xG has cooled: 0.5 at Fenerbahçe and 1.1 at Como. Madrid's form is 8-0-2 overall but only 4-1-5 in their last 10 away games, with 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded per away game. They score late often (7 goals in minutes 76-90). Cards: Madrid's away games average 2.7 yellows for and 3.1 against, about 5.8 in total. Roma's games average about 3.9. Letexier averages 4.06 yellows a game this season and 4.5 over his last 10. Corners: Roma's home games average 9.2 and Madrid's away games 10.0. Bzzoiro gives over 9.5 corners 52.5%, and after our historical correction of about -0.7 we expect roughly 9.0. No corners case.
News (web). Svilar is definitely out (broken finger or toe, reports differ), so Gollini starts in goal, a clear downgrade for Roma. Cristante is doubtful. Malen is available because his ban is domestic only. For Madrid (Mourinho facing his former club), Güler, Camavinga and Bernardo Silva return from European bans and Vinícius can play. Militão, Mendy, Rodrygo and Asencio are out. Predicted Madrid XI: Courtois; Dumfries, Konaté, Rüdiger, Carreras; Valverde, Bernardo; Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius; Mbappé.
Market. The no-margin 1X2 is 26.7/24.1/49.3. Roma's home record argues for them and the keeper loss argues against, so we sit close to the market at 28/25/47. Goals: we expect about 2.9 in total (1.3-1.6). Applying the lesson that we underrate scoring, over 2.5 comes out around 65% and both sides scoring around 65%. Both match the market, so there is no priced edge. Cards: we expect about 4.6. This is a high-stakes Champions League night with Mourinho back in Rome, the referee's recent rate is high and Madrid's away card counts are high. Over 3.5 comes out at about 63%.
Uncertainties. The Madrid XI is not confirmed. Letexier can be lenient in big European games. Madrid have the ball 52% of the time, and a controlled game would mean fewer fouls.
Analysed by opus with web research.