CFR 1907 Cluj vs FC Universitatea Cluj prediction
Our picks
Away team goals
U Cluj over 0.5 goals
U Cluj create plenty of chances, and CFR's defence is weakened by flu.
Why this pick
U Cluj create plenty of chances, and CFR's defence is weakened by flu.
U Cluj create a lot (xG 2.07 per game overall), scored in 7 of the last 10 derbies, and face a CFR side with six flu-hit players, including centre-back Braun and left-back Camora. Their 50% away failure-to-score rate is the counterweight, so the estimate stays near the base rate.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
63%Total cardsover 3.5 cardsWon
U Cluj average 2.9 yellows away, CFR's home opponents get 1.8, and CFR take about 1.4 themselves. In a local derby that projects to about 4.8 cards. The referee is unknown, which caps confidence.
- Actual
- 6
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back U Cluj to score and over 3.5 cards: CFR's flu-hit defence is weakened in a heated derby.
- 1Six CFR players, including defenders Braun and Camora, were down with flu this week.
- 2U Cluj create plenty and scored in seven of the last ten derbies.
- 3Bookmakers make this nearly a coin flip; flu news only nudges it.
Go deeper
What happened1–3 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–3
Goals
4 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
8 (we expected 8.4)
Cards
6 (we expected 4.8)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: CFR 1907 Cluj win — we say 35%, bookmakers 39%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFR 1907 Cluj win | 35% | 39% | -4 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj win | 37% | 33% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Penalty in the match | 26% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 18% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.35
Expected corners
8.4
Expected cards
4.8
Late team news (4)Six CFR players hit by flu/virus this week (Cordea, Drazic, Braun, Nalic, Simão Rocha, Camora); Nalic, Braun, Drazic missed…
Six CFR players hit by flu/virus this week (Cordea, Drazic, Braun, Nalic, Simão Rocha, Camora); Nalic, Braun, Drazic missed training with fever.
2026-10-07reliability: highdigisport.ro
Lorenzo Biliboc only returns from Romania U21 duty on match morning; doubtful to feature fully.
2026-10-07reliability: highdigisport.ro
CFR could be without up to six starters in the derby because of flu.
2026-10reliability: mediumcluj24.ro
Match is the postponed matchday 4 game, moved at CFR's request because of their Conference League ties; played during the international break.
reliability: highinformat.ro
What could go wrongCFR's flu-hit players recover and start, and CFR's tight home defence keeps U Cluj scoreless again.
CFR's flu-hit players recover and start, and CFR's tight home defence keeps U Cluj scoreless again.
What it couldn't verify
- Referee appointment
- U Cluj injuries/suspensions
- Whether flu-hit CFR players will start
The dataCFR 1907 ClujWLDWWFC Universitatea ClujWWLLL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| CFR 1907 Cluj | FC Universitatea Cluj | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 8/16 | 5/16 |
| Points (played) | 13 (9) | 15 (9) |
| Form | WLDWW | WWLLL |
| Points per game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals for – against | 1.5 – 0.8 | 0.7 – 1.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.35 – 0.92 | 1.38 – 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 5.0 – 2.2 | 4.1 – 5.4 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.3 – 1.8 | 2.9 – 1.8 |
| Days since last match | 19 | 18 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
22 meetings: 12 home wins, 4 draws, 6 away wins · 3.1 goals per game.
- 2026-04-25 · CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 FC Universitatea Cluj
- 2026-03-16 · FC Universitatea Cluj 2–1 CFR 1907 Cluj
- 2026-02-07 · CFR 1907 Cluj 3–2 FC Universitatea Cluj
- 2025-09-29 · FC Universitatea Cluj 2–2 CFR 1907 Cluj
- 2025-05-03 · CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 FC Universitatea Cluj
Absences
CFR 1907 Cluj
None reported
FC Universitatea Cluj
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
CFR 1907 Cluj
2.34
Draw
3.29
FC Universitatea Cluj
2.78
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
Under 2.5 goals
1.92
Both score: yes
1.63
Both score: no
2.15
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 9.1%.
Last 10 games — CFR 1907 Cluj
| 09-19 | H | FC Botoșani | 3–1 | W |
| 09-12 | A | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 1–3 | L |
| 09-04 | H | FCV Farul Constanța | 0–0 | D |
| 08-29 | A | FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | 3–2 | W |
| 08-23 | H | FCSB | 1–0 | W |
| 08-16 | A | FC Corvinul Hunedoara | 0–3 | L |
| 08-13 | A | Tromsø IL | 1–2 | L |
| 08-06 | H | Tromsø IL | 0–5 | L |
| 08-02 | A | FC Rapid București | 1–3 | L |
| 07-30 | H | FC Alashkert | 3–0 | W |
Last 10 games — FC Universitatea Cluj
| 09-20 | A | FC Voluntari | 2–0 | W |
| 09-14 | H | SC Oțelul Galați | 3–0 | W |
| 09-07 | A | Universitatea Craiova | 0–4 | L |
| 08-28 | H | FC Petrolul Ploiești | 2–3 | L |
| 08-22 | A | FC Dinamo București | 1–2 | L |
| 08-17 | H | UTA Arad | 2–1 | W |
| 08-03 | H | FC Botoșani | 2–1 | W |
| 07-30 | A | SK Brann | 1–3 | L |
| 07-26 | A | Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe | 0–1 | L |
| 07-23 | H | SK Brann | 2–2 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Flu in CFR's squad tilts an even Cluj derby slightly towards U Cluj; back U Cluj to score and a card-heavy derby rather than a result.
Data (pack)
- CFR at home: 5-4-1 in their last 10, conceding 0.8 a game (xG against 0.92) with 60% clean sheets. Only 40% of those games went over 2.5 goals. Overall form is patchy: 1.9 conceded per game across all competitions.
- U Cluj away: 2-1-7, 0.7 goals for and 1.9 against, and they failed to score in 50%. Overall their chance creation is strong (xG 2.07 for vs 1.35 against; table xGF 17.4 is a league-high type figure vs CFR's 12.8). They score late: 11 of their 15 goals came after the break.
- Head to head: 3.6 goals per game over the last 10, and U Cluj scored in 7 of them. The last meeting in Gruia finished 1-0 to CFR.
- Cards: U Cluj average 2.6 yellows (2.9 away). CFR's home opponents pick up 1.8. CFR take 1.3–1.5. It's a local derby, and the referee is unknown.
- Corners project to about 8.4 (CFR home 5.0 for / 2.2 against; U away 4.1 / 5.4). Close to the Bzzoiro line, so no edge.
- Both sides are coming off a long break (18–19 days).
News (web)
- Digi Sport (7 Oct): six CFR players had flu or a virus this week: Cordea, Drazic, Braun, Nalic, Simão Rocha, Camora. Nalic, Braun and Drazic missed training with fever. Biliboc only got back from the U21s on the morning of the match.
- No U Cluj absences found. Referee not found.
Market comparison
The market has CFR at 39%, the draw at 28% and U Cluj at 33%. The flu news (a day old) is probably only partly priced in. I shade it to 35/28/37. That is a 4-point gap on U Cluj, which isn't enough to call a clear edge given past mistakes, so I make no result pick. On goals I land at about 2.75 expected, so over 2.5 is around 55% against 51% implied. That's marginal, so no pick there either.
Picks
- U Cluj to score: strong chance creation, a weakened CFR back line (Braun, Camora) and their derby scoring record outweigh their poor away scoring. About 67%.
- Over 3.5 cards: U Cluj's card rate, the derby setting and rain give an estimate of about 4.8 cards. About 63%. The unknown referee is the main gap.
Uncertainties
How many of the flu-hit players start, who the referee is, and wet conditions.
Analysed by opus with web research.