1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München prediction
Our picks
Bayern second-half goals
Bayern over 0.5 second-half goals
Most of Bayern's goals come after half-time, which is also when Mainz concede most at home.
Why this pick
Most of Bayern's goals come after half-time, which is also when Mainz concede most at home.
22 of Bayern's last 35 goals came after half-time, 18 of 25 in away games. Mainz conceded 13 of their 19 home goals against after the break, and Bayern's bench usually adds pressure late.
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
69%Bayern total goalsBayern over 1.5 goals
Bayern scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 away games and in 8 of the last 10 head-to-heads. Mainz conceded 2+ in 5 of their last 7 home league games and are missing suspended defenders Posch and Mwene. Model expected goals of about 2.4 gives roughly 69%.
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Bayern to score twice or more: Mainz concede freely at home and two defenders are suspended.
- 1Mainz conceded two or more in five of their last seven home league games.
- 2Mainz defenders Posch and Mwene are suspended; Bayern still have Kane and Olise.
- 3Main result and goals prices look fair; the value is in Bayern's goals.
Go deeper
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 13% | 13% | 0 |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | +1 |
| FC Bayern München win | 71% | 72% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 90% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 30% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 19% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.40
Expected corners
10.5
Expected cards
3.9
Likeliest scores
1-2 (10%) · 1-3 (8%) · 0-2 (7%)
Late team news (4)Mainz without Kohr, Ruoppi, Mvumpa (injured) and Posch, Mwene (suspended); Fischer coach; predicted Mainz 3-5-2.
Mainz without Kohr, Ruoppi, Mvumpa (injured) and Posch, Mwene (suspended); Fischer coach; predicted Mainz 3-5-2.
2026-11-05reliability: mediumkhelnow.com
Bayern miss Musiala, Luis Díaz, Gnabry and Saibari; Ndiaye back in training after appendix surgery; predicted XI with Kane, Olise, Karl, Davies.
2026-11-05reliability: mediumkhelnow.com
Kompany out since collapsing on 23 Oct (meningeal irritation); assistant Aaron Danks leading the team, including before the Mainz trip.
2026-10-27reliability: highthestar.com.my
Danks says Bayern aim to carry momentum from the Madrid win into Mainz (headline only; page returned 404).
2026-11-06reliability: lowbeinsports.com
What could go wrongBayern rotate after the Atlético win, and missing Musiala and Díaz slows them, so they win by one goal.
Bayern rotate after the Atlético win, and missing Musiala and Díaz slows them, so they win by one goal.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups and Bayern's rotation plans after Atlético
- Whether Kompany is back on the touchline
- Official confirmation of the Posch/Mwene suspensions (single source)
The data1. FSV Mainz 05LLWLWFC Bayern MünchenDWWDW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 10/18 | 1/18 |
| Points (played) | 10 (8) | 18 (8) |
| Form | LLWLW | DWWDW |
| Points per game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals for – against | 1.6 – 1.9 | 2.5 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.81 – 1.53 | 2.70 – 1.36 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 6.0 – 4.0 | 7.4 – 3.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.8 – 2.2 | 1.0 – 1.8 |
| Days since last match | 8 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
42 meetings: 8 home wins, 4 draws, 30 away wins · 4.1 goals per game.
- 2026-04-25 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 FC Bayern München
- 2025-12-14 · FC Bayern München 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2025-04-26 · FC Bayern München 3–0 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2024-12-14 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 FC Bayern München
- 2024-10-30 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–4 FC Bayern München
Referee
Robert Schröder (Germany)
This season: 3.26 yellows and 24.2 fouls per game over 27 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.30 yellows per game.
Absences
1. FSV Mainz 05
D. Kohr (injured: Ankle Injury)
O. Ruoppi (injured: Knee Injury)
S. K. Mvumpa (injured: Broken Ankle)
FC Bayern München
B. S. Ndiaye (injured: Appendicitis)
I. Saibari (injured: Ankle Injury)
S. Gnabry (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
1. FSV Mainz 05
7.35
Draw
6.08
FC Bayern München
1.32
Over 2.5 goals
1.24
Under 2.5 goals
3.98
Both score: yes
1.48
Both score: no
2.54
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.8%.
Last 10 games — 1. FSV Mainz 05
| 10-30 | A | SV 07 Elversberg | 1–4 | L |
| 10-27 | A | VfL Bochum 1848 | 0–2 | L |
| 10-24 | H | SV Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 10-17 | A | FC Schalke 04 | 1–0 | W |
| 10-10 | H | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
| 09-19 | A | Borussia M'gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 09-12 | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Hamburger SV | 5–0 | W |
| 08-29 | H | SC Paderborn 07 | 0–0 | D |
| 08-23 | A | VfB 1921 Krieschow | 9–0 | W |
Last 10 games — FC Bayern München
| 11-03 | A | Atlético Madrid | 2–0 | W |
| 10-31 | H | Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
| 10-28 | H | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6–1 | W |
| 10-25 | A | SC Freiburg | 3–1 | W |
| 10-21 | H | Arsenal | 2–2 | D |
| 10-17 | H | RB Leipzig | 6–1 | W |
| 10-13 | A | Viking FK | 3–3 | D |
| 10-10 | A | FC Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 09-18 | H | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 09-13 | A | SV 07 Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Bayern are clear favourites at a weakened Mainz; the best angle is Bayern scoring at least twice against a home defence missing two suspended starters.
Data (pack)
- Bayern are top with 18 points from 8 games and GD +19, and are unbeaten in their last 10 (6-4-0). On the road they average 2.5 goals for and 2.7 expected goals. They scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 away games, and 22 of their last 35 goals came after half-time.
- Mainz are 10th and have lost 4 of their last 5. At home they concede 1.9 per game and only 3 of their last 10 home games were wins. Recent home scores: 2-3 Bremen, 3-4 Leverkusen, 1-3 Frankfurt. They do keep scoring at home (failed to score in only 20%).
- H2H: last 10 meetings averaged 5.0 goals, and Bayern scored 2+ in 8 of them.
- Referee Schröder: 4.3 yellows per game over his last 10, no reds, 4 penalties scored.
News (web)
- Khelnow, 5 Nov: Mainz are without Posch and Mwene through suspension, as well as Kohr, Ruoppi and Mvumpa through injury. Bayern miss Musiala, Díaz, Gnabry and Saibari. Ndiaye is back in training.
- Kompany is recovering from meningeal irritation and assistant Danks has been in charge since 23 Oct (results under him: 3-1, 6-1, 2-2, 2-0).
- Bayern played Atlético on Tuesday (4 days' rest). Mainz have had 8.
Market
- 1X2 at 12.9/15.5/71.6 matches my view. Over 2.5 (76%) and both teams scoring (63%) are priced fairly. Even after the usual upward goals adjustment (~78% / 64%), neither clears the 4-point bar.
- My model: Bayern around 2.4 expected goals, Mainz around 1.2. Poisson puts Bayern 2+ at about 69%. Two independent signals back it: Bayern's away scoring record and Mainz's home concessions, plus the weakened Mainz back line. Bayern scoring after half-time comes out around 75%, supported by their goal timing and by Mainz conceding 13 of their last 19 home goals after the break.
Uncertainties
- Bayern's attack is thinner without Musiala, Díaz and Gnabry, and there is some rotation risk after the Champions League game.
- Rain could slow the game.
- Corners (about 10.5 expected) and cards (about 3.8) show no strong signal, so no picks there.
Analysed by opus with web research.