Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen prediction
Our picks
Home team total goals
Dortmund over 1.5 goals
Dortmund score freely at home and a weakened Werder concede plenty and rarely keep clean sheets.
Why this pick
Dortmund score freely at home and a weakened Werder concede plenty and rarely keep clean sheets.
Dortmund scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 (2.6 goals a game, 2.45 expected goals at home). Werder concede 1.6 a game with 10% clean sheets and 6.1 expected goals against in 4 league games, and they are missing seven players. Dortmund scored 2+ in 6 of the last 10 meetings. Expected goals of about 2.3 give roughly 66%.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
60%Total cornersunder 10.5 cornersLost
Blended team rates come to about 10 corners. Our track record shows the model overestimates corners by about 0.8, which brings it to about 9.3. Bzzoiro puts under 10.5 at 62%. Dortmund held opponents to 2.7 corners a game at home.
- Actual
- 12
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Dortmund to score twice or more: they're in top form and Werder are missing seven players.
- 1Dortmund scored two or more in eight of their last ten games.
- 2Werder are without seven injured players, including Stage, Musah and Njinmah.
- 3Dortmund defenders Schlotterbeck and Ryerson are doubts, which keeps Werder's goal hopes alive.
Go deeper
What happened2–2 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
2–2
Goals
4 (we expected 3.3)
Corners
12 (we expected 9.3)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 72% | -1 |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | +1 |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 12% | 12% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 27% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.00
Expected corners
9.3
Expected cards
3.6
Likeliest scores
2-0 (11%) · 2-1 (11%) · 3-1 (8%)
Late team news (6)Kovac said a Schlotterbeck return from his ankle injury against Bremen is 'possible'; the final decision rests with the player…
Kovac said a Schlotterbeck return from his ankle injury against Bremen is 'possible'; the final decision rests with the player and medical staff.
2026-10-07reliability: highsport1.de
Ryerson picked up a rib injury with Norway and is doubtful; Dortmund have no natural right-back replacement.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumabsolutfussball.com
Chukwuemeka has muscle problems (reports differ on whether he is out); Karetsas and Svensson have colds.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumfussballtransfers.com
Agu re-injured his calf in a friendly against Twente and will not be available.
2026-10reliability: lowkarlobag.eu
An injury tracker lists Lynen and Dinkçi as doubtful for Werder.
2026-10reliability: lowstarting11.com
Weiser returned in September after about 14 months out with a torn knee ligament; Füllkrug now plays for Bremen.
2026-10reliability: highbundesliga.com
What could go wrongRain and a rusty Dortmund after 20 days off could make for a slow 1-0 win.
Rain and a rusty Dortmund after 20 days off could make for a slow 1-0 win.
What it couldn't verify
- Final status of Schlotterbeck and Ryerson
- Werder's coach press conference and probable lineup
- Exact kickoff time (sources conflict)
The dataBorussia DortmundWWWWWSV Werder BremenWDWLL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 1/18 | 8/18 |
| Points (played) | 12 (4) | 7 (4) |
| Form | WWWWW | WDWLL |
| Points per game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals for – against | 2.4 – 1.0 | 1.3 – 1.4 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.45 – 0.99 | 1.27 – 1.34 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.6 – 2.7 | 5.0 – 5.9 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.1 | 1.9 – 1.3 |
| Days since last match | 20 | 20 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
103 meetings: 45 home wins, 21 draws, 37 away wins · 3.2 goals per game.
- 2026-05-16 · SV Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-01-13 · Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SV Werder Bremen
- 2025-01-25 · Borussia Dortmund 2–2 SV Werder Bremen
- 2024-08-31 · SV Werder Bremen 0–0 Borussia Dortmund
- 2024-03-09 · SV Werder Bremen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
Referee
Christian Dingert (Germany)
This season: 3.75 yellows and 22.3 fouls per game over 16 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.80 yellows per game.
Absences
Borussia Dortmund
F. Mané (injured: Thigh Injury)
G. Konstantelias (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
SV Werder Bremen
F. Agu (injured: Calf Injury)
J. Stage (injured: Thigh Injury)
J. Njinmah (injured: Thigh Injury)
K. Topp (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
M. Ndiaye (injured: Groin Injury)
S. Musah (injured: Thigh Injury)
S. Alvero (injured: Calf Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Borussia Dortmund
1.31
Draw
5.72
SV Werder Bremen
8.22
Over 2.5 goals
1.37
Under 2.5 goals
2.97
Both score: yes
1.67
Both score: no
2.11
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.0%.
Last 10 games — Borussia Dortmund
| 09-19 | A | VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 09-12 | H | SC Paderborn 07 | 3–0 | W |
| 09-08 | H | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 09-05 | A | TSG Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 09-01 | A | Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 | 5–0 | W |
| 08-29 | H | Hamburger SV | 2–0 | W |
| 05-16 | A | SV Werder Bremen | 2–0 | W |
| 05-08 | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3–2 | W |
| 05-03 | A | Borussia M'gladbach | 0–1 | L |
| 04-26 | H | SC Freiburg | 4–0 | W |
Last 10 games — SV Werder Bremen
| 09-19 | H | FC Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 09-12 | A | 1. FC Köln | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | RB Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 08-30 | A | SC Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 08-22 | A | LSK Hansa Lüneburg | 3–0 | W |
| 05-16 | H | Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 05-09 | A | TSG Hoffenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 05-02 | H | FC Augsburg | 1–3 | L |
| 04-26 | A | VfB Stuttgart | 1–1 | D |
| 04-18 | H | Hamburger SV | 3–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Dortmund should beat a badly depleted Werder side at home; our best angle is Dortmund scoring at least twice, since the result price is too short to back.
Data (pack). Dortmund are top with 5 wins from 5 and 12 points from 4 league games (goals 9-2, expected goals 6.5-3.3). Over their last 10 games they went 9-0-1, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.7 a game, with 60% clean sheets and 2+ goals in 8 of 10. Their home expected goals are 2.45 for and 0.99 against. Werder are 8th and give up chances: 6.1 expected goals against in 4 league games, 1.6 goals conceded a game over their last 10 and only 10% clean sheets. Away from home Werder score late (most of their goals come after the 60th minute) and lose the corner count 5.0 to 5.9. Dortmund have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including 3-0 and 2-0 this year. Referee Dingert averages 3.75 yellows a game, close to normal. Both teams have had 20 days off.
News (web). At his Wednesday press conference Kovac said a Schlotterbeck return from an ankle injury is "possible". Ryerson has a rib problem and is unclear, and Dortmund have no natural right-back cover. Chukwuemeka has a muscle issue, and Karetsas and Svensson have colds. Werder are without seven players (pack list), and one injury tracker adds Lynen and Dinkçi as doubts. Weiser is back after his torn knee ligament. Dortmund's defence is weaker than usual and Werder's midfield is thin.
Market. The no-margin prices are 72/16.5/11.5, and I make it 71/17/12. Over 2.5 goals is 68.4% in the market and about 70% for me, even after the scoring-upgrade lesson, so there is no priced edge. I estimate expected goals at 2.3 to 1.0. That puts Dortmund scoring 2+ at about 66%, backed by their 8-of-10 record and Werder's conceding numbers. Corners: team rates point to about 10, but the calibration lesson (minus 0.8) and Bzzoiro's under-10.5 figure of 62% support a modest lean to under 10.5.
Uncertainties. Schlotterbeck's and Ryerson's status, rust after the international break, rain slowing the game, and the kickoff time differing between sources.
Analysed by opus with web research.