Deportivo de A Coruña vs Levante UD prediction
Our picks
Goals over/under 2.5
over 2.5 goals
Deportivo games are open and Levante leak away goals; the price treats this as a coin flip.
Why this pick
Deportivo games are open and Levante leak away goals; the price treats this as a coin flip.
Both sides scored in 80% of Deportivo's games. Levante concede 1.8 a game away and leak late goals. Past results show the model underrates scoring. The expected total is about 2.75.
- Odds
- 1.91
- Odds imply
- 50.0%
- Actual
- 2
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
60%Total cardsover 4.5 cardsLost
Referee averages 5.98 yellows and 0.36 reds a game this season and 6.9 yellows over his last 10. Levante take 2.4 yellows a game away and Deportivo's home opponents 2.7. Deportivo's red-card rate (0.3 a game) adds upside. The blended estimate is about 5.0 cards.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back over 2.5 goals and over 4.5 cards: Deportivo games are open and the referee books heavily.
- 1Both sides scored in 8 of Deportivo's last 10 games, home or away.
- 2Referee Orellana Cid averages almost 7 yellows a game over his last 10.
- 3Bookmakers make over 2.5 goals a coin flip; we make it 55%.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 0 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
8 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
4 (we expected 5.0)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 2.5 goals — we say 55%, bookmakers 50%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de A Coruña win | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | -1 |
| Levante UD win | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 25% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.15
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
5.0
Late team news (3)Aubameyang out with meniscus injury, expected return in 5-8 weeks; predicted Deportivo XI Navarro, Giménez, Ede, Quagliata…
Aubameyang out with meniscus injury, expected return in 5-8 weeks; predicted Deportivo XI Navarro, Giménez, Ede, Quagliata, Peke, Nsongo, Mella, Soriano, Villares, Cruz.
2026-10-14reliability: mediumelgoldigital.com
Fantasy preview lists Aubameyang out, Amatucci and Casadó as doubts; Noubi and Mella at risk of losing starting spots.
2026-10reliability: lowasesoriasfantasy.com
Levante sidelined: Primo (shoulder, since March), Etta Eyong (since Aug 30), Hugo Sotelo (knee, since Sep 14).
2026-10reliability: mediumaiscore.com
What could go wrongLevante sit deep as they did in 0-0 away draws at Osasuna and Málaga, and the game stays tight.
Levante sit deep as they did in 0-0 away draws at Osasuna and Málaga, and the game stays tight.
What it couldn't verify
- Levante probable XI and official squad list
- Confirmation that Orellana Cid is appointed (taken from pack only)
The dataDeportivo de A CoruñaLDLDWLevante UDDLLDW
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Deportivo de A Coruña | Levante UD | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 8/20 | 17/20 |
| Points (played) | 10 (8) | 6 (7) |
| Form | LDLDW | DLLDW |
| Points per game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals for – against | 1.6 – 1.0 | 0.7 – 1.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.42 – 1.23 | 1.02 – 1.85 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 4.8 – 5.0 | 4.0 – 5.7 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 2.7 | 2.4 – 2.1 |
| Days since last match | 5 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
20 meetings: 9 home wins, 5 draws, 6 away wins · 2.3 goals per game.
- 2025-01-25 · Deportivo La Coruña 1–2 Levante UD
- 2024-10-24 · Levante UD 2–1 Deportivo La Coruña
- 2018-01-27 · Deportivo de A Coruña 2–2 Levante UD
- 2017-08-26 · Levante UD 2–2 Deportivo de A Coruña
- 2016-03-19 · Deportivo de A Coruña 2–1 Levante UD
Referee
Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid (Spain)
This season: 5.98 yellows and 28.5 fouls per game over 47 matches.
Last 10 matches: 6.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Deportivo de A Coruña
L. Amatucci (suspended: red_card_suspension)
M. Casadó (injured: Muscle Injury)
P. Aubameyang (injured: Meniscus Injury)
Z. Eddahchouri (injured: Broken Wrist)
Levante UD
E. Eyong (injured: Thigh Injury)
H. Sotelo (injured: Sprained Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Deportivo de A Coruña
2.08
Draw
3.43
Levante UD
3.50
Over 2.5 goals
1.91
Under 2.5 goals
1.91
Both score: yes
1.73
Both score: no
2.03
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.8%.
Last 10 games — Deportivo de A Coruña
| 10-11 | A | Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 09-20 | H | Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 09-16 | H | Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 09-13 | A | Getafe | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | A | Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 08-30 | H | Valencia | 3–1 | W |
| 08-24 | A | Málaga CF | 1–1 | D |
| 08-17 | H | Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 05-31 | H | Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 05-24 | A | Real Valladolid | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Levante UD
| 10-12 | H | Sevilla | 3–3 | D |
| 09-20 | A | Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 09-13 | H | FC Barcelona | 2–4 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Málaga CF | 0–0 | D |
| 08-29 | H | Real Betis | 5–2 | W |
| 08-24 | A | Osasuna | 0–0 | D |
| 08-16 | A | Espanyol | 0–3 | L |
| 05-23 | A | Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
| 05-17 | H | Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 05-12 | A | Celta Vigo | 3–2 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Deportivo are slight favourites at Riazor against a Levante side that rarely wins away; we lean to over 2.5 goals and a busy night of cards with Orellana Cid refereeing.
Data (pack). Deportivo at home: 5-3-2 in their last 10, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.0 a game, chances created 1.42 vs 1.23 allowed. Both sides scored in 80% of their games (all and home). Levante away: 1-4-5, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.8, chances 1.02 vs 1.85, failed to score in 50%. They concede late (6 of 18 away goals after the 76th minute). The two sides' corner rates blend to about 9.5; after the calibration cut it is about 9.0, so no corner case. Cards: Levante pick up 2.4 yellows a game away, Deportivo's home opponents 2.7, and Deportivo collect 0.3 reds a game. Referee Orellana Cid: 5.98 yellows and 0.36 reds a game this season, 6.9 yellows over his last 10.
News (web). Aubameyang is out for 5-8 weeks with a meniscus injury. Amatucci is suspended and Casadó is injured (pack), so Deportivo are thin in midfield and up front. Predicted XI: Navarro; Giménez, Ede, Quagliata; Peke, Nsongo, Mella, Soriano, Villares, Cruz. I found no fresh Levante team news. Older reports list Primo (shoulder), Etta Eyong and Sotelo as out.
Market. The 1X2 prices (45/28/27) look fair. Deportivo's absences offset Levante's weak away record, so I stay close: 46/27/27. Goals: on these numbers I expect about 2.75 in total, after adding the calibration lesson (the model has underrated scoring). That gives over 2.5 at 55% against 50% implied, just past the 4-point bar, and both sides scoring at 57% against 54%, short of the bar. Cards: the team rates point to about 4.3 and the referee to 6-7, a blend of about 5.0. That puts over 4.5 cards near 60%, and the two signals agree.
Uncertainties. I don't know Levante's line-up. Levante's away games are low-scoring (0.7 goals scored per game), which works against the over. Deportivo's attack is weakened.
Analysed by opus with web research.