Málaga CF vs Espanyol prediction
Our pick
Espanyol team goals
Espanyol over 0.5 goals
Espanyol scored in all of their last 10 games; Málaga conceded in six of seven league games.
Why this pick
Espanyol scored in all of their last 10 games; Málaga conceded in six of seven league games.
Espanyol scored in 10 of their last 10 overall and 8 of 10 away. Málaga conceded in 6 of 7 La Liga games (12 against, 11.2 expected goals against). Puado and Kike García being out trims this from the mid-70s to about 70%.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Espanyol to score: they scored in all 10 recent games, and Málaga keep conceding.
- 1Málaga sit bottom, with 3 goals scored and 12 conceded in seven league games.
- 2Espanyol are missing Puado and Kike García, but Málaga still lack four long-term absentees.
- 3The price makes this a toss-up; we rate Espanyol slightly ahead, not enough to bet.
Go deeper
What happened1–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–1
Goals
2 (we expected 2.5)
Corners
10 (we expected 8.5)
Cards
9 (we expected 4.5)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 34% | 35% | -1 |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | -1 |
| Espanyol win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 14% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Expected corners
8.5
Expected cards
4.5
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 0-1 (9%) · 1-2 (9%)
Late team news (3)Málaga: Calero, Lobete, Murillo and Ochoa could miss out; Aznou a major doubt; Chupe expected to start.
Málaga: Calero, Lobete, Murillo and Ochoa could miss out; Aznou a major doubt; Chupe expected to start. Probable XI: Herrero; Rafita, Recio, Berrocal, Salinas; Rodríguez; Larrubia, Dotor, Lorenzo, Chupe; Jauregi.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Espanyol without Javi Puado and Kike García; Jofre Carreras faces a late fitness test (groin); El Hilali returns from suspension.
2026-10-07reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Calero and Aznou expected to be available for Málaga; Cajuste, Murillo, Ochoa and Lobete remain out long-term; Rafita returning from Spain Under-21 duty.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumcomuniate.com
What could go wrongMálaga's home defence holds as it did against Levante, and Espanyol's attack without Puado and Kike García fires blanks.
Málaga's home defence holds as it did against Levante, and Espanyol's attack without Puado and Kike García fires blanks.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting lineups
- Whether Jofre Carreras passed his fitness test
- Conflicting reports on whether Calero and Aznou are available
- Whether J. Hernández is injured (listed injured in the pack but in Sportsmole's predicted XI)
The dataMálaga CFLLDDLEspanyolLLWDL
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Málaga CF | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | 20/20 | 15/20 |
| Points (played) | 3 (7) | 7 (7) |
| Form | LLDDL | LLWDL |
| Points per game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals for – against | 1.0 – 1.0 | 1.1 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.54 – 1.14 | 1.06 – 1.72 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 5.7 – 4.1 | 4.0 – 5.1 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.8 – 2.7 | 3.6 – 2.5 |
| Days since last match | 19 | 21 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
58 meetings: 20 home wins, 15 draws, 23 away wins · 2.5 goals per game.
- 2021-05-02 · Espanyol 3–0 Málaga CF
- 2020-11-02 · Málaga CF 0–3 Espanyol
- 2018-05-13 · Espanyol 4–1 Málaga CF
- 2018-01-08 · Málaga CF 0–1 Espanyol
- 2017-02-04 · Málaga CF 0–1 Espanyol
Referee
Francisco Hernandez Maeso (Spain)
This season: 3.04 yellows and 24.3 fouls per game over 24 matches.
Last 10 matches: 2.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Málaga CF
A. Ochoa (injured: Meniscus Injury)
A. Aznou (injured: Gastrointestinal Discomfort)
D. Murillo (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
F. Calero (injured: Broken Rib)
J. Cajuste (injured: Muscle Injury)
J. Salinas (injured: club_decision)
J. Lobete (injured: Cruciate Ligament Injury)
M. Diarra (injured: Muscle Injury)
Espanyol
J. Hernández (injured: Leg Injury)
J. Puado (injured: ACL Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Málaga CF
2.71
Draw
3.20
Espanyol
2.66
Over 2.5 goals
2.09
Under 2.5 goals
1.75
Both score: yes
1.78
Both score: no
1.96
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.7%.
Last 10 games — Málaga CF
| 09-20 | A | Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 09-17 | H | Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 09-13 | A | Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 09-06 | H | Levante UD | 0–0 | D |
| 08-30 | A | Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 08-24 | H | Deportivo de A Coruña | 1–1 | D |
| 08-19 | A | Atlético Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 06-20 | A | Almería | 2–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Almería | 0–0 | D |
| 06-10 | H | Las Palmas | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Espanyol
| 09-18 | H | Elche | 1–3 | L |
| 09-15 | A | Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 | L |
| 09-12 | A | Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
| 09-06 | H | Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 08-29 | A | Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 08-22 | H | Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 08-16 | H | Levante UD | 3–0 | W |
| 05-23 | H | Real Sociedad | 1–1 | D |
| 05-17 | A | Osasuna | 2–1 | W |
| 05-13 | H | Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 3 min read
A near coin-flip in which Espanyol edge it slightly, and the clearest angle is Espanyol scoring against a Málaga defence that has conceded in six of its seven La Liga games.
Data (pack). Málaga are 20th: 3 points, 3 goals for and 12 against in 7 games, with expected goals of 5.9 for and 11.2 against. Over their last 10 they failed to score in 50%. At home they are tighter: 1.0 goals for and 1.0 against per game, mostly draws. In La Liga, though, they conceded in every game except the 0-0 with Levante. Espanyol are 15th and scored in all of their last 10 games (100% over 1.5). Away from home they are poor: 0.8 points per game, 1.6 conceded, often late (7 of 16 goals against came from the 76th minute on). The head-to-head record is heavily Espanyol's (7 wins, 3 draws in 10), but those games date from 2014-2021. Referee Hernández Maeso is lenient: 3.04 yellows per game and no reds in his last 10. Espanyol away average 3.6 yellows and 17 fouls per game. Málaga at home average 1.8 yellows. Both sides come in after about 20 days' rest because of the international break.
News (web). Sportsmole (7 Oct) has Calero, Lobete, Murillo and Ochoa possibly out for Málaga, with Aznou a major doubt and Chupe back in the XI. Comuniate instead suggests Calero and Aznou could be available, while Cajuste, Murillo, Ochoa and Lobete stay out. Espanyol are without Puado and Kike García, Jofre Carreras faces a late fitness test, and El Hilali returns from suspension. Losing their two main strikers dents Espanyol's attack somewhat.
Market. The 1X2 is near even (34.9 / 29.6 / 35.6). I go 34 / 29 / 37, leaning slightly to Espanyol because Málaga's chances created and conceded in the league are the worst numbers in either dataset. On over 2.5 goals, the market says 45.6%. Adding the past-lesson bump gets me to about 49%, which is not enough of an edge, and Málaga's own games rarely go high. Corners come out at about 8.5 after the correction, so there is no corner pick. Cards: Espanyol's fouling meets a lenient referee, which gives about 4.5 cards in total, short of a clear line.
Pick. Espanyol to score. They scored in 10 of their last 10 overall and 8 of their last 10 away, and Málaga conceded in 6 of their 7 league games while allowing 1.6 expected goals per game. I estimate about 70%.
Uncertainties. Espanyol's striker absences, Málaga's improved home solidity (40% clean sheets at home over the last 10, mostly in the second division), and conflicting injury reports.
Analysed by opus with web research.