Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction
Sweden
Bosnia & HerzegovinaOur pick
Bosnia & Herzegovina team cards
Bosnia & Herzegovina over 1.5 cards
Bosnia get booked in nearly every away game, and they must chase a win against a strict referee.
Why this pick
Bosnia get booked in nearly every away game, and they must chase a win against a strict referee.
Bosnia average 3.0 yellows away and got at least two in 10 of their last 10 away games, with 17 fouls a game. Sweden's home opponents average 2.8 yellows, and 7 of 10 got two or more. Sozza has shown 3.7 yellows a game over his last 10. Bosnia have to win this group decider away from home, which means chasing the game and committing tactical fouls against Sweden's front two. The one counter-signal is that October's meeting produced zero cards.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Bosnia to get 2+ yellow cards: they're booked often away, and they must chase a win.
- 1Bosnia got two or more yellows in all of their last 10 away games.
- 2Bosnia must win to top the group, so expect a physical, chasing game.
- 3Isak and Gyökeres are both back, so the price on Sweden looks fair.
Go deeper
What happened3–2 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
3–2
Goals
5 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
10 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
1 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 62% | 63% | -1 |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | +1 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 16% | 16% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 39% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | -1 |
| Penalty in the match | 30% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 14% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.05
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
4.3
Likeliest scores
1-1 (11%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (6)Isak, Gyökeres and Elanga are all in the Sweden squad; Kulusevski is back but likely to be managed or start on the bench.
Isak, Gyökeres and Elanga are all in the Sweden squad; Kulusevski is back but likely to be managed or start on the bench.
2026-11-11reliability: mediumtvmatchen.nu
Sweden are without Bergvall, Hien, Holm, Starfelt, Svanberg, Bardghji and Taha Ali; Zeneli withdrew on 9 November with no replacement; Gudmundsson has a hamstring problem but trained.
2026-11-11reliability: mediumtvmatchen.nu
Table: Sweden 10 points, Bosnia 8. A Sweden win clinches the group and promotion; only a Bosnia win puts them top. About 52,000 tickets sold.
2026-11-11reliability: mediumtvmatchen.nu
Bosnia are without Hadžikadunić (calf), Vasilj and Busuladžić; Dedić returns; Džeko has retired from international football.
2026-11-11reliability: mediumtvmatchen.nu
Barbarez named a 26-man Bosnia squad for Sweden and Romania, including 17-year-old Deket; Vasilj left out because he is not playing for his club.
2026-11reliability: highnfsbih.ba
Potter's Sweden squad for Bosnia and Poland includes Kulusevski and debutants Antwi and Njie.
2026-11-04reliability: highsvt.se
What could go wrongA calm game with Sweden in control, or Sozza letting fouls go as both teams did in October's 0-0 cards.
A calm game with Sweden in control, or Sozza letting fouls go as both teams did in October's 0-0 cards.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether Muharemović is suspended (the preview predicted him to start)
- Sozza's card record in internationals specifically
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Sweden | Bosnia & Herzegovina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals for – against | 2.5 – 1.0 | 1.7 – 1.3 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.01 – 0.98 | 1.35 – 1.29 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 5.0 – 4.4 | 3.3 – 4.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.0 – 2.8 | 3.0 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 40 | 40 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 4.0 goals per game.
- 2026-10-02 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden
- 2010-05-29 · Sweden 4–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Referee
Simone Sozza (Italy)
This season: 3.17 yellows and 24.0 fouls per game over 60 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Sweden
E. Holm (injured: Hamstring Injury)
L. Bergvall (injured: Physical Discomfort)
T. Ali (injured: Shoulder Injury)
Bosnia & Herzegovina
D. Hadžikadunić (injured: Muscle Injury)
T. Muharemović (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Sweden
1.50
Draw
4.36
Bosnia & Herzegovina
5.91
Over 2.5 goals
1.57
Under 2.5 goals
2.32
Both score: yes
1.67
Both score: no
2.10
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.5%.
Last 10 games — Sweden
| 10-05 | A | Romania | 1–0 | W |
| 10-02 | A | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 09-28 | H | Poland | 3–1 | W |
| 09-25 | H | Romania | 2–1 | W |
| 06-30 | A | France | 0–3 | L |
| 06-25 | A | Japan | 1–1 | D |
| 06-20 | A | Netherlands | 1–5 | L |
| 06-15 | H | Tunisia | 5–1 | W |
| 03-31 | H | Poland | 3–2 | W |
| 03-26 | A | Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Bosnia & Herzegovina
| 10-05 | H | Poland | 1–0 | W |
| 10-02 | H | Sweden | 1–1 | D |
| 09-28 | A | Romania | 4–2 | W |
| 09-25 | A | Poland | 0–0 | D |
| 07-02 | A | USA | 0–2 | L |
| 06-24 | H | Qatar | 3–1 | W |
| 06-18 | A | Switzerland | 1–4 | L |
| 06-12 | A | Canada | 1–1 | D |
| 03-31 | H | Italy | 1–1 | D |
| 03-26 | A | Wales | 1–1 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Sweden are rightly favourites at home with Isak and Gyökeres back, but the 1X2 and goals prices are fair; the one lean is Bosnia picking up at least two yellow cards in a group decider they have to win.
Data (pack). Sweden at home: 7-1-2 over the last 10, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 per game, with chances created of 2.01 for and 0.98 against. They also won the last four Nations League games before their October draw. Bosnia away: 3-5-2, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3, and they let in a lot late (7 of 13 away goals against came after the 75th minute). The October meeting in Zenica finished 1-1, and Sweden had the better chances (1.1 to 0.1). Cards: Bosnia average 2.6 yellows overall and 3.0 away, and they committed 17 fouls per away game. They got at least two yellows in 10 of their last 10 away games and 8 of their last 10 overall. Sweden's home opponents average 2.8 yellows, and seven of those ten opponents got two or more. Referee Sozza averages 3.17 yellows a game this season and 3.7 over his last 10, with 0.4 reds and 0.5 penalties scored per game. Corners project to about 9, close to the Bzzoiro 50% for over 8.5, so there is no edge there.
News (web). Isak, Gyökeres and Elanga are all in the Sweden squad, and Kulusevski is back but likely to be managed. Sweden are still without Hien, Bergvall, Holm, Svanberg, Starfelt and Zeneli, and Gudmundsson is doubtful. Bosnia have lost Hadžikadunić and Vasilj, Muharemović is suspended according to the pack, and Džeko has retired, while Dedić returns. On the table, Sweden have 10 points and Bosnia 8. A Sweden win clinches the group, and only a Bosnia win takes them top. There will be about 52,000 fans and a temperature of 0°C.
Market. The no-margin prices are 62.6/21.5/15.9. Sweden's strong home record and their returning strikers support the favourite, but the weakened defence balances that out, so I stay on the market. Expected goals are about 1.85 to 1.05, a total near 2.9 after the scoring-bias correction. That puts over 2.5 at about 60%, the same as the market, so there is no goals edge.
Pick. Bosnia over 1.5 cards. Three signals point the same way: their own away booking rate, the rate of Sweden's home opponents, and Sozza's recent strictness. The must-win stakes and Bosnia's foul count add to it. I put it at about 67%.
Uncertainties. The October meeting produced zero yellows. Sweden have been booked rarely. A comfortable early Sweden lead could take the edge out of the game.
Analysed by opus with web research.