Austria vs Ireland prediction
Austria
IrelandOur pick
Austria second-half goals
Austria over 0.5 second-half goals
Austria usually score late, and Ireland concede most of their away goals after half-time.
Why this pick
Austria usually score late, and Ireland concede most of their away goals after half-time.
Austria scored after the break in 8 of their last 10 games (and in 8 of their last 10 home games), with 12 of 18 goals in all competitions coming after half-time. Ireland conceded after the break in 6 of their last 10 away games, 11 of the 17 goals they let in. Austria also came back from 2-0 down in the second half of the first meeting. I cut the number because Austria's attack is depleted (no Grüll, Wimmer, Chukwuemeka or Wanner).
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Small lean on Austria scoring after half-time. They usually score late, and the main prices look fair.
- 1Austria scored after the break in 8 of their last 10 games.
- 2Austria are missing Alaba, Wöber, Grillitsch, Wimmer, Grüll and Chukwuemeka.
- 3Our result and goals numbers sit within three points of the bookmaker prices.
Go deeper
What happened1–0 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–0
Goals
1 (we expected 2.6)
Corners
19 (we expected 8.3)
Cards
5 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria win | 57% | 60% | -3 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Ireland win | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 14% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.15
Expected corners
8.3
Expected cards
4.3
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 2-1 (10%) · 1-0 (9%)
Late team news (5)Ireland squad for Austria (Linz, 14 Nov) and Kosovo: Collins and Vale return, Bazunu out injured and Travers recalled; Kelleher…
Ireland squad for Austria (Linz, 14 Nov) and Kosovo: Collins and Vale return, Bazunu out injured and Travers recalled; Kelleher, Parrott, Azaz and Idah all included.
2026-11-05reliability: highirishexaminer.com
Austria are without Alaba, Wöber, Veratschnig, Wanner, Wimmer and Grillitsch; Grüll (calf) and Chukwuemeka (muscle) also ruled out.
2026-11-08reliability: hightt.com
Austria called up Yusuf Demir and Raul Florucz as replacements; Baumgartner returns from a tendon injury; 17-year-old Weinhandl gets his first call-up.
2026-11reliability: mediumweekend.at
Austria manager Rangnick's ankle condition has worsened and he needs another operation.
2026-11reliability: mediumflashscore.de
Austria press frame the November window as a showdown for Nations League promotion.
2026-11-02reliability: mediumsalzburg24.at
What could go wrongA weakened Austria attack stalls and Ireland sit deep to protect a lead or a draw.
A weakened Austria attack stalls and Ireland sit deep to protect a lead or a draw.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Exact group table and what result each side needs
- Whether Sabitzer and Laimer are available for this window
- Whether Azaz and Lawal are fully fit
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Austria | Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals for – against | 3.0 – 0.8 | 1.3 – 1.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.46 – 0.76 | 1.12 – 1.78 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 4.7 – 2.4 | 2.8 – 4.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.2 – 2.0 | 2.3 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 41 | 41 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
5 meetings: 1 home wins, 3 draws, 1 away wins · 2.4 goals per game.
- 2026-10-01 · Ireland 2–2 Austria
- 2017-06-11 · Ireland 1–1 Austria
- 2016-11-12 · Austria 0–1 Ireland
- 2013-09-10 · Austria 1–0 Ireland
- 2013-03-26 · Ireland 2–2 Austria
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
This season: 4.03 yellows and 23.2 fouls per game over 30 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.90 yellows per game.
Absences
Austria
D. Alaba (injured: Calf Injury)
F. Grillitsch (injured: Groin Injury)
P. Wimmer (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Ireland
G. Bazunu (injured: Muscle Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Austria
1.57
Draw
4.03
Ireland
5.49
Over 2.5 goals
1.80
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
Both score: yes
1.83
Both score: no
1.89
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.7%.
Last 10 games — Austria
| 10-04 | A | Kosovo | 1–1 | D |
| 10-01 | A | Ireland | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | H | Kosovo | 3–1 | W |
| 09-24 | H | Israel | 3–1 | W |
| 07-02 | A | Spain | 0–3 | L |
| 06-28 | A | Algeria | 3–3 | D |
| 06-22 | A | Argentina | 0–2 | L |
| 06-17 | H | Jordan | 3–1 | W |
| 11-18 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | A | Cyprus | 2–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Ireland
| 10-04 | H | Israel | 1–1 | D |
| 10-01 | H | Austria | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | A | Israel | 3–0 | W |
| 09-24 | A | Kosovo | 0–1 | L |
| 03-26 | A | Czechia | 2–2 | D |
| 11-16 | A | Hungary | 3–2 | W |
| 11-13 | H | Portugal | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | H | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-11 | A | Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | A | Armenia | 1–2 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Austria are rightful favourites in Linz, but a long injury list means we stay close to the market and take one small lean: Austria to score after half-time.
Data (pack). Austria are 7-3-0 in their last 10 home games, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 per game, with chances created of 2.46 against 0.76. They scored first in 9 of those 10. Their goals come late: 12 of 18 in all competitions came after half-time, 8 of them from the 76th minute on, and they scored after the break in 8 of their last 10. Ireland are weaker away: 4-1-5, chances created 1.12 against 1.78, and they failed to score in 40% of away games. Away from home they concede 11 of their 17 goals after half-time, but they start fast, with 11 of their 15 goals in all competitions coming before the break. The first meeting in Dublin ended 2-2: Ireland led 2-0 at half-time and Austria came back in the second half. The referee, Peljto, gives 4.03 yellows and 0.43 reds a game, but these two teams' recent games average fewer cards (Austria's games about 2.6 yellows in total).
News (web). Austria are badly depleted. Alaba, Wöber, Veratschnig, Wanner, Wimmer and Grillitsch are out, and Grüll and Chukwuemeka withdrew. Demir and Florucz were called up and Baumgartner is back. Ireland are near full strength: captain Collins and Vale return, and only goalkeeper Bazunu is out, with Kelleher the senior keeper anyway. Austria lead the group, so promotion is at stake and Ireland need points.
Market. The prices give 59.7/23.3/17.1. Austria's absences lead me to trim them slightly to 57/24/19. Expected goals are about 2.65 (the third-party model's 2.5 plus the scoring correction from past results), putting over 2.5 at about 55% against 52.8%. That gap is too small to call an edge, and priced over 2.5 picks have lost before. Both sides scoring is 53% against 50.8%, also no edge. Over 3.5 cards is about 55%, which misses the 58% bar because both teams' own card counts are low. Corners have no strong signal.
Lean. Austria to score in the second half, at about 61%. Two signals support it: Austria scored after the break in 8 of their last 10, and Ireland conceded after the break in 6 of their last 10 away games.
Uncertainties. Austria's line-up after so many absences, Rangnick's health, Ireland playing for a draw, and a cold night (2°C).
Analysed by opus with web research.