Portugal vs Denmark prediction
Portugal
DenmarkOur pick
Denmark to score
Denmark over 0.5 goals
Denmark scored in all of their last 10; Portugal rarely keep clean sheets and lack both full-backs.
Why this pick
Denmark scored in all of their last 10; Portugal rarely keep clean sheets and lack both full-backs.
Denmark scored in 10 of their last 10 (failed to score 0%) and in 80% of away games, including twice against Portugal on 1 October. Portugal keep clean sheets in only 30% of games. They are without Cancelo (suspended) and Nuno Mendes (injured), their two regular full-backs. Denmark also need points to hold second place.
- Actual
- 4
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Denmark to score: they have scored in all of their last 10 games, and Portugal lack both regular full-backs.
- 1Denmark scored in all of their last 10 games, including twice against Portugal.
- 2Cancelo is suspended, and Nuno Mendes and Leão are injured for Portugal.
- 3Portugal are already through to the quarter-finals; one point clinches top spot.
Go deeper
What happened1–4 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–4
Goals
5 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
13 (we expected 9.8)
Cards
2 (we expected 3.8)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 61% | 63% | -2 |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | +2 |
| Denmark win | 17% | 16% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 20% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.20
Expected corners
9.8
Expected cards
3.8
Likeliest scores
2-1 (11%) · 1-1 (10%) · 2-0 (9%)
Late team news (4)Portugal's 28-man squad is the first since Ronaldo's farewell; Francisco Conceição is suspended for three matches and Nuno…
Portugal's 28-man squad is the first since Ronaldo's farewell; Francisco Conceição is suspended for three matches and Nuno Mendes is injured; Inácio was left out by choice.
2026-11-06reliability: highabola.pt
Portugal (12 pts) are already through to the quarter-finals and need one point for top spot; Denmark have 6, Norway and Wales 3.
2026-11-06reliability: highabola.pt
Rafael Leão hurt his right thigh with Galatasaray and is a doubt; the match is in Braga, with Wales away on 17 November next.
2026-11-09reliability: highflashscore.pt
Denmark's squad recalls Nicolaisen, M. Jensen, Lindstrøm and Osula; Christensen is still injured and Kasper Høgh is left out.
2026-11reliability: mediumflashscore.com
What could go wrongPortugal keep the ball for long spells, as their 64% home possession suggests, and Denmark rarely get a clear chance.
Portugal keep the ball for long spells, as their 64% home possession suggests, and Denmark rarely get a clear chance.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs for either side
- Denmark's full November squad and any late injuries in camp
- How much Jorge Jesus will rotate now that Portugal are through
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Portugal | Denmark | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals for – against | 2.5 – 0.9 | 1.9 – 1.4 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.23 – 1.07 | 1.60 – 1.46 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 6.3 – 3.2 | 5.5 – 3.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.8 – 1.8 | 2.0 – 1.8 |
| Days since last match | 41 | 41 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
8 meetings: 3 home wins, 2 draws, 3 away wins · 4.3 goals per game.
- 2026-10-01 · Denmark 2–4 Portugal
- 2025-03-23 · Portugal 5–2 Denmark
- 2025-03-20 · Denmark 1–0 Portugal
- 2012-06-13 · Denmark 2–3 Portugal
- 2009-09-05 · Denmark 1–1 Portugal
Referee
Rade Obrenovič (Slovenia)
This season: 4.15 yellows and 24.1 fouls per game over 34 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Portugal
J. Cancelo (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
R. Leão (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Denmark
A. Christensen (injured: Thigh Injury)
A. Gaaei (injured: Knee Injury)
K. Dolberg (injured: Knee Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Portugal
1.49
Draw
4.60
Denmark
5.78
Over 2.5 goals
1.51
Under 2.5 goals
2.48
Both score: yes
1.62
Both score: no
2.19
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.2%.
Last 10 games — Portugal
| 10-04 | H | Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 10-01 | A | Denmark | 4–2 | W |
| 09-27 | A | Norway | 2–1 | W |
| 09-24 | H | Wales | 1–0 | W |
| 07-06 | H | Spain | 0–1 | L |
| 07-02 | H | Croatia | 2–1 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 06-23 | H | Uzbekistan | 5–0 | W |
| 06-17 | H | DR Congo | 1–1 | D |
| 11-16 | H | Armenia | 9–1 | W |
Last 10 games — Denmark
| 10-04 | A | Wales | 1–0 | W |
| 10-01 | H | Portugal | 2–4 | L |
| 09-27 | H | Wales | 2–0 | W |
| 09-24 | A | Norway | 2–3 | L |
| 03-31 | A | Czechia | 1–1 | D |
| 03-26 | H | North Macedonia | 4–0 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Scotland | 2–4 | L |
| 11-15 | H | Belarus | 2–2 | D |
| 10-12 | H | Greece | 3–1 | W |
| 10-09 | A | Belarus | 6–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Portugal are rightly favourites at home, but Denmark have scored in all of their last 10 games and Portugal are missing both first-choice full-backs, so Denmark to score is the one lean.
(a) Data. Portugal are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and 6-3-1 at home, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.9 per game at home. Their chances created at home run 2.23 for and 1.07 against per game. They kept clean sheets in only 30% of games. Denmark scored in 10 of their last 10 (failed to score 0%) and in 80% of away games, creating about 1.6-2.1 per game in chances. Denmark concede late: 9 of their 14 goals against came after half-time, and 4 of the 10 away came after the 76th minute. The last three meetings produced 4-2, 5-2 and 1-0 (head-to-head average 4.2 goals per game). Referee Obrenovič averages 4.15 yellows per game this season but 3.1 over his last 10. The teams' own card rates are modest, so the cards line is close to a coin flip. Corners project to about 9.8, with no strong signal.
(b) News (web). A Bola (6 Nov) reports a 28-man squad, the first since Ronaldo's farewell. Francisco Conceição is suspended after his red card against Norway and Nuno Mendes is injured. Cancelo is suspended, per the data pack. Flashscore reports Leão hurt his thigh. Portugal lead the group on 12 points and are already through to the quarter-finals; one point secures top spot. Denmark are second on 6, ahead of Norway and Wales on 3, so they have more at stake. The match is in Braga. Christensen is still out for Denmark, and Lindstrøm and Osula are back in their squad.
(c) Market. I stay near the market on the result: 61/22/17 against the implied 63/20.5/16. Portugal's qualification and missing full-backs trim them slightly. On goals I make it 64% over 2.5 and 59% both sides scoring. Neither clears the market by 4 points, so I have no priced pick. Denmark to score (about 70%) is unpriced. It is backed by three things: Denmark have scored in every one of their last 10 games, Portugal keep only 30% clean sheets, and their defence is weakened at full-back.
(d) Uncertainties. Portugal's starting XI is unconfirmed and may be heavily rotated with new call-ups. Denmark's full squad and fitness are not fully verified.
Analysed by opus with web research.