Serbia vs Germany prediction
Serbia
GermanyOur pick
Germany team goals
Germany over 1.5 goals
Serbia conceded twice in every group game and now miss key defenders; Germany dominated them last month.
Why this pick
Serbia conceded twice in every group game and now miss key defenders; Germany dominated them last month.
Serbia have conceded 2+ in 5 of their last 6 and in all four group games. Their defence is weaker without Pavlović, Maksimović and Stanković. Germany created 3.9 xG with 32 shots against them a month ago. Both the market's and Bzzoiro's numbers have Germany at about 2.1 expected goals, which gives roughly 60% for two or more. Germany's poor away scoring (1.2 per game) keeps confidence low.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Lean Germany to score twice or more: Serbia have conceded twice in four straight Nations League games.
- 1Serbia lost all four group games, conceding two goals in each.
- 2Serbia miss defender Strahinja Pavlović, plus Stanković and the suspended Maksimović.
- 3Germany at 1.28 looks fair, so we see no value in the result price.
Go deeper
What happened1–3 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–3
Goals
4 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
6 (we expected 9.5)
Cards
8 (we expected 4.3)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 40%, bookmakers 47%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 11% | 11% | +1 |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | +2 |
| Germany win | 71% | 74% | -3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 85% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 47% | -7 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 9% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.05
Expected corners
9.5
Expected cards
4.3
Late team news (6)Aleksandar Stanković left Serbia camp with a right thigh adductor muscle injury; out vs Germany and Greece.
Aleksandar Stanković left Serbia camp with a right thigh adductor muscle injury; out vs Germany and Greece.
2026-11reliability: highnovosti.rs
Strahinja Pavlović withdrawn injured; Paunović called up Győr defender Miljan Krpić as replacement.
2026-11reliability: highnovosti.rs
Waldemar Anton (Dortmund) out of the Serbia and Netherlands games with a muscle problem; Germany's centre-back options are Schlotterbeck, Tah, Chau and Jelch.
2026-11-08reliability: highnovosti.rs
Predicted Germany 4-3-3: ter Stegen; Treu, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown; Pavlović, Kimmich, Wirtz; Havertz up front. Right wing is Karl or Gruda.
2026-11reliability: mediumran.joyn.de
Germany have one win in four under Klopp and must win in Belgrade to stay in contention.
2026-11reliability: mediumlomazoma.com
Only one of 24 players was missing at the start of Germany training in Herzogenaurach (dpa).
2026-11-10reliability: mediumvolksstimme.de
What could go wrongGermany's away attack has been blunt under Klopp, with a 0-0 at Greece and 1-1 in the Netherlands.
Germany's away attack has been blunt under Klopp, with a 0-0 at Greece and 1-1 in the Netherlands.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Serbia's predicted XI under Paunović
- The fussballnationalmannschaft.net lineup page returned 403
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Serbia | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals for – against | 1.1 – 1.1 | 1.2 – 1.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.53 – 1.58 | 1.48 – 1.31 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 5.7 – 3.7 | 3.8 – 5.0 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.9 – 2.1 | 2.0 – 2.9 |
| Days since last match | 40 | 40 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins · 1.7 goals per game.
- 2026-10-01 · Germany 2–0 Serbia
- 2019-03-20 · Germany 1–1 Serbia
- 2010-06-18 · Germany 0–1 Serbia
Referee
Javier Alberola Rojas (Spain)
This season: 3.90 yellows and 26.5 fouls per game over 59 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.60 yellows per game.
Absences
Serbia
A. Stanković (injured: Muscle Injury)
A. Terzić (injured: Muscle Injury)
N. Maksimović (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
S. Džodić (injured: national_team)
S. Pavlović (injured: Knee Injury)
Germany
A. Ouédraogo (injured: Shoulder Injury)
J. Musiala (injured: Thigh Injury)
M. Neuer (injured: Foot Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Serbia
9.00
Draw
6.03
Germany
1.28
Over 2.5 goals
1.40
Under 2.5 goals
2.83
Both score: yes
1.77
Both score: no
1.97
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.8%.
Last 10 games — Serbia
| 10-04 | A | Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 10-01 | A | Germany | 0–2 | L |
| 09-27 | H | Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 09-24 | H | Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Latvia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-13 | A | England | 0–2 | L |
| 10-14 | A | Andorra | 3–1 | W |
| 10-11 | H | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | H | England | 0–5 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Latvia | 1–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Germany
| 10-04 | A | Greece | 0–0 | D |
| 10-01 | H | Serbia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-27 | H | Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 09-24 | A | Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 06-29 | H | Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
| 06-20 | H | Côte d'Ivoire | 2–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Curaçao | 7–1 | W |
| 11-17 | H | Slovakia | 6–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Luxembourg | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Germany are clear favourites in Belgrade against a winless, depleted Serbia, and the 1.28 price is about fair; the only lean is Germany scoring at least twice.
Data (pack). Serbia have lost all four Nations League games: 1-2, 1-2 at home to Greece and the Netherlands, and 0-2 and 1-2 away. Over their last 10 they averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with 2.0 chances against (xG) per game. They have allowed two or more goals in 5 of their last 6. On 1 October Germany beat them 2-0 with 32 shots to 1, 3.9 xG to 0.0 and 12 corners to 1. Germany's away form is less convincing: 1.2 goals scored per game, 0-0 at Greece and 1-1 in the Netherlands, though they scored first in 6 of 9 away games. Serbia do score at home (1.1 per game) and have found the net in 3 of 4 group games, so the market's 52.7% on both sides scoring looks right. The referee, Alberola Rojas, shows 4.6 yellows per game over his last 10 and 3.9 this season. Both teams book moderately (Serbia 1.8 per game, Germany 1.2), which points to about 4.3 cards and no clear edge.
News (web). Serbia, now coached by Paunović, lose Aleksandar Stanković (thigh muscle) and centre-back Strahinja Pavlović (knee; Krpić called up). Maksimović is suspended and Terzić is injured. Germany, under Klopp, lose Waldemar Anton (muscle, per Novosti 8 Nov), Musiala and Neuer. Predicted XI: ter Stegen; Tah and Schlotterbeck at centre-back; Kimmich and Wirtz in midfield; Havertz up front. Germany need to win to stay in contention, so motivation is high. Serbia sit on 0 points.
Market. Implied 73.8% Germany. I have them slightly lower at 71%, because Germany have won only 1 in 4 under Klopp, so I see no edge on the result. Total goals of about 2.9 (after the scoring adjustment) fits the 66.9% over-2.5 price, so no edge there either. The lean is Germany 2+ goals, at about 60%. Two signals support it: Serbia's defence has conceded twice repeatedly and is now weaker, and Germany dominated this fixture a month ago. With a predicted 2.0 goals for Germany, a simple goals model gives about 59-60%.
Uncertainties. Germany's attack has been inconsistent and the XI is not confirmed. Serbia have had 40 days' rest and a new coach. Serbia could also sit deep and keep the score low.
Analysed by opus with web research.