Netherlands vs Greece prediction
Netherlands
GreeceOur pick
Netherlands second-half goals
Netherlands over 0.5 second-half goals
Dutch goals come mostly after half-time, and Greece concede most of theirs late.
Why this pick
Dutch goals come mostly after half-time, and Greece concede most of theirs late.
Expected Dutch goals of about 1.85, with roughly 60% of them coming after the break, gives a second-half rate of about 1.1 and a 65-67% chance. Two separate signals support it. The Netherlands scored 16 of their last 23 goals in the second half (12 of 30 at home came before the break). Greece conceded 10 of their last 15 after half-time. In the first meeting the Dutch scored at 59' and 89'.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back the Netherlands to score in the second half: most of their goals, and most of Greece's concessions, come late.
- 116 of the Netherlands' last 23 goals came after half-time.
- 2Greece conceded 10 of their last 15 goals in the second half.
- 3The match result and total goals prices match our numbers, so no value there.
Go deeper
What happened7–0 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
7–0
Goals
7 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
9 (we expected 9.8)
Cards
0 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 60% | 62% | -2 |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | +1 |
| Greece win | 17% | 17% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 11% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.05
Expected corners
9.8
Expected cards
4.0
Late team news (4)Xavi has replaced Koeman as Netherlands coach; Frenkie de Jong (back from a knee injury) and Malen are recalled for the games…
Xavi has replaced Koeman as Netherlands coach; Frenkie de Jong (back from a knee injury) and Malen are recalled for the games against Greece and Germany.
2026-11-06reliability: highbeinsports.com
Gravenberch, Frimpong, Hato and Aké are absent from the Netherlands squad; Weghorst is left out.
2026-11-06reliability: highbeinsports.com
The Netherlands and Greece both have 8 points in Group A2, with the Dutch top on goal difference; Germany are 3 points behind and host the Netherlands three days later.
2026-11-06reliability: highbeinsports.com
Memphis Depay is left out of Xavi's Netherlands squad.
reliability: mediumtsn.ca
What could go wrongGreece sit deep and frustrate a Dutch side missing Gravenberch, Frimpong and Aké, as in Germany's 0-0 in Greece.
Greece sit deep and frustrate a Dutch side missing Gravenberch, Frimpong and Aké, as in Germany's 0-0 in Greece.
What it couldn't verify
- Could not confirm the Zafeiris and Saliakas suspensions or any other Greece team news
- No confirmed or reliably predicted lineups for either side
- Whether Xavi will rotate before the Germany game
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Netherlands | Greece | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals for – against | 3.0 – 0.9 | 1.4 – 0.9 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.22 – 0.96 | 1.38 – 0.81 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.7 – 3.6 | 4.8 – 4.6 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.1 – 1.8 | 2.4 – 1.7 |
| Days since last match | 40 | 40 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins · 2.7 goals per game.
- 2026-10-01 · Greece 2–2 Netherlands
- 2016-09-01 · Netherlands 1–2 Greece
- 1980-06-11 · Netherlands 1–0 Greece
Referee
Rohit Saggi (Norway)
This season: 3.61 yellows and 25.4 fouls per game over 59 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.30 yellows per game.
Absences
Netherlands
B. Brobbey (injured: Physical Discomfort)
J. Frimpong (injured: Hamstring Injury)
J. Hato (injured: Knock Injury)
N. Aké (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Greece
C. Zafeiris (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
M. Saliakas (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Netherlands
1.53
Draw
4.35
Greece
5.57
Over 2.5 goals
1.63
Under 2.5 goals
2.26
Both score: yes
1.69
Both score: no
2.07
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.3%.
Last 10 games — Netherlands
| 10-04 | H | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 10-01 | A | Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 09-24 | H | Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 06-30 | H | Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
| 06-20 | H | Sweden | 5–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Japan | 2–2 | D |
| 11-17 | H | Lithuania | 4–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Poland | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — Greece
| 10-04 | H | Germany | 0–0 | D |
| 10-01 | H | Netherlands | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | A | Germany | 1–0 | W |
| 09-24 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Belarus | 0–0 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Scotland | 3–2 | W |
| 10-12 | A | Denmark | 1–3 | L |
| 10-09 | A | Scotland | 1–3 | L |
| 09-08 | H | Denmark | 0–3 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Belarus | 5–1 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Netherlands are rightly favoured, around 60%, in a top-of-group decider, but the 1X2 and goals prices look fair; the best angle is the Dutch scoring after the break.
(a) From the data pack. The Netherlands are unbeaten in 10 (5-5-0). At home they average 3.0 goals for and 0.9 against, have scored in every game, and score first 8 times in 10. Their home draws came against strong sides (Germany, Morocco, Japan, Spain). Greece are compact away from home: 0.9 conceded per game, 50% clean sheets and 6-1-3, including wins in Germany and Serbia. Timing is the clearest pattern. 16 of the Netherlands' 23 goals in their last 10 came after half-time, and Greece conceded 10 of their last 15 in the second half. In the first meeting (2-2) Greece led 2-0 at half-time and the Dutch scored twice after the break. Corners at Dutch home games run at about 10.2 per game, and the corner probabilities in the pack centre near 9.5. The referee, Saggi, has shown 4.3 yellows per game in his last 10 (3.61 on the season). Greece pick up about 2.4 yellows per away game and the Netherlands 1.1, which points to roughly 4 cards. That is not a clear edge.
(b) From the web. Xavi replaced Koeman after the World Cup. Frenkie de Jong (back from a knee injury) and Malen return. Gravenberch is also out, on top of Frimpong, Hato, Aké and Brobbey. Both teams have 8 points and lead Group A2; the Netherlands are ahead only on goal difference. The Dutch play in Germany three days later, but the stakes here make heavy rotation unlikely. I could not confirm the Greek suspensions listed in the pack.
(c) Against the market. I hold near the bookmakers: 60/23/17. Goals get the usual upward nudge (over 2.5 at 60% vs 58.1% implied), but that falls short of the 4-point bar, and past priced over-2.5 picks have lost. Both sides scoring at 56% vs 55% is no edge either. Not priced in the pack: Netherlands second-half goals. Their expected second-half rate is about 1.1 goals, so the chance they score after the break is about 66%. That is backed by two separate signals: the Dutch scoring pattern and Greece's conceding pattern. The Netherlands to score at all is about 83% but will be priced short.
(d) Uncertainties. A new coach and a reshaped midfield. Greece's away sample is missing stats in 5 of 10 games. Rain could slow the game.
Analysed by opus with web research.