Slovenia vs Switzerland prediction
Slovenia
SwitzerlandOur picks
Slovenia total goals
Slovenia under 1.5 goals
Slovenia rarely score twice, Šeško is out, and Switzerland concede half a goal per game.
Why this pick
Slovenia rarely score twice, Šeško is out, and Switzerland concede half a goal per game.
Slovenia scored 0.8 per game (0.84 xG) and failed to score in 5 of 10. They managed 1 goal in 3 games against Switzerland. Switzerland concede 0.5 per game, and Šeško is still out. Poisson at 0.95 gives about 75%.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
70%First-half goalsunder 1.5 first-half goalsWon
7 of Slovenia's last 10 and 9 of Switzerland's last 10 away games had at most 1 goal at half-time. Slovenia scored only 1 of 8 goals before the break. Switzerland need only a draw, which encourages a cautious start.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Slovenia to score once or less, and a quiet first half. Both sides start slowly and Slovenia lack goals.
- 1Slovenia average 0.8 goals a game and failed to score in half.
- 2Šeško remains injured; Switzerland lose Xhaka and Muheim but defend well.
- 3A draw wins Switzerland the group, so a cautious, slow start is likely.
Go deeper
What happened0–0 · 2 of 2 picks won
Final score
0–0
Goals
0 (we expected 2.5)
Corners
18 (we expected 8.7)
Cards
2 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia win | 18% | 18% | 0 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Switzerland win | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 13% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.50
Expected corners
8.7
Expected cards
4.0
Likeliest scores
0-1 (13%) · 1-1 (12%) · 0-2 (10%)
Late team news (5)Granit Xhaka out of Switzerland's final two Nations League games (Slovenia, Scotland) with a calf injury.
Granit Xhaka out of Switzerland's final two Nations League games (Slovenia, Scotland) with a calf injury.
2026-11-10reliability: highthestar.com.my
Miro Muheim out with muscle problems; Ruben Vargas delayed by gastrointestinal illness; Isaac Schmidt and uncapped Roggerio Nyakossi called up.
2026-11-09reliability: highbluewin.ch
Breel Embolo returns to the Swiss squad; a point in Maribor secures group win and promotion to League A.
2026-11reliability: mediumbluewin.ch
Switzerland lead Slovenia by five points; Slovenia's League B status already secure per coach Cesar.
2026-11-09reliability: mediumbluewin.ch
Match moved to Ljudski vrt, Maribor.
2026-11reliability: mediumkarlobag.eu
What could go wrongAn early Swiss goal forces Slovenia to attack and opens the game up before half-time.
An early Swiss goal forces Slovenia to attack and opens the game up before half-time.
What it couldn't verify
- Current Slovenia team news beyond the pack (Šeško status, replacements for suspended Janža/Zec)
- Confirmed lineups
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Slovenia | Switzerland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals for – against | 1.0 – 1.0 | 1.3 – 1.0 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.27 – 1.19 | 1.54 – 1.06 |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Corners for – against | 3.8 – 5.2 | 5.3 – 3.3 |
| Yellows for – against | 2.0 – 2.0 | 1.0 – 2.4 |
| Days since last match | 38 | 38 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
5 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 4 away wins · 1.8 goals per game.
- 2026-10-03 · Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia
- 2025-10-13 · Slovenia 0–0 Switzerland
- 2025-09-08 · Switzerland 3–0 Slovenia
- 2013-10-15 · Switzerland 1–0 Slovenia
- 2012-09-07 · Slovenia 0–2 Switzerland
Referee
Jasper Vergoote (Belgium)
This season: 3.37 yellows and 22.3 fouls per game over 62 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Slovenia
B. Šeško (injured: Leg Injury)
D. Zec (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
E. Janža (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
Switzerland
A. Amenda (injured: Calf Injury)
G. Xhaka (injured: Muscle Injury)
J. Monteiro (injured: Calf Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Slovenia
5.17
Draw
3.52
Switzerland
1.69
Over 2.5 goals
2.21
Under 2.5 goals
1.66
Both score: yes
2.06
Both score: no
1.70
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.9%.
Last 10 games — Slovenia
| 10-06 | A | Scotland | 2–1 | W |
| 10-03 | A | Switzerland | 1–2 | L |
| 09-29 | H | North Macedonia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-26 | H | Scotland | 0–0 | D |
| 11-18 | A | Sweden | 1–1 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Kosovo | 0–2 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Switzerland | 0–0 | D |
| 10-10 | A | Kosovo | 0–0 | D |
| 09-08 | A | Switzerland | 0–3 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Sweden | 2–2 | D |
Last 10 games — Switzerland
| 10-06 | H | North Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 10-03 | H | Slovenia | 2–1 | W |
| 09-29 | A | Scotland | 3–0 | W |
| 09-26 | A | North Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 07-12 | A | Argentina | 1–1 | D |
| 07-07 | H | Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 07-03 | H | Algeria | 2–0 | W |
| 06-24 | H | Canada | 2–1 | W |
| 06-18 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | W |
| 06-13 | A | Qatar | 1–1 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Switzerland are rightly favoured in Maribor, but the value lies in Slovenia's weak attack: without Šeško they rarely score more than once.
Data (pack). Slovenia: 0.8 goals for and 1.1 against per game over their last 10, with 0.84 chances-created (xG) for. They failed to score in 50% of games. Only 1 of their 8 goals came in the first half. Against Switzerland in the last 3 meetings: 1 goal scored, 5 conceded. Switzerland: 7-3-0, conceding 0.5 per game, with clean sheets in 50%. Away from home they are less dominant (1.3 goals for, 1.0 against). First halves are tight: 7 of Slovenia's last 10 and 9 of Switzerland's last 10 away games had 0-1 goals at half-time. Referee Vergoote shows 3.37 yellows per game this season but 4.1 in his last 10. Slovenia pick up the cards (2.3 per game), Switzerland very few (0.8). That puts expected cards around 4, which is not enough for a pick. Expected corners are about 8.7, and corner leans have a poor track record.
News (web). Xhaka (calf) and Muheim (muscle) are out. Vargas joined late with a stomach bug. Embolo is back. Uncapped centre-back Nyakossi and YB defender Schmidt were called up (bluewin, Reuters/The Star). One point in Maribor clinches the group and promotion for Switzerland, who lead by 5, so they have little reason to take risks. Slovenia's League B place is already safe. Šeško is still out. Janža and Zec are suspended, which weakens Slovenia's back line but does little to their attack.
Market. 1X2 of 18/27/55 fits the data, so I keep it. Following past lessons I nudge the goals total up slightly, to about 2.45 (0.95 vs 1.5), giving over 2.5 at about 45%, close to the market's 43%. No priced edge reaches 4 points. On team and half lines, a Poisson rate of 0.95 for Slovenia gives about 75% for one goal or fewer. First-half goals at roughly 1.05 expected give about 72% for under 1.5. Both are backed by each team's own record and the opponent's.
Uncertainties. Swiss defensive changes without Muheim. The predicted lineups are unconfirmed. An early goal would change the game state.
Analysed by opus with web research.