Croatia vs Spain prediction
Croatia
SpainOur picks
Spain team goals
Spain over 1.5 goals
Spain scored twice in 8 of 10 away games; Croatia just conceded 11 in two games.
Why this pick
Spain scored twice in 8 of 10 away games; Croatia just conceded 11 in two games.
Spain are expected to score about 2.1, which gives roughly 62% for 2+. They scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 away games, and Croatia conceded 2+ in 6 of 10, including 7 and 4 in the last two Nations League games. Croatia had a virus in the squad and are missing Erlić and Juranović.
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
61%Spain first-half goalsSpain over 0.5 first-half goalsLost
Spain scored in the first half in 9 of their last 10 away games (16 of 26 away goals came before the break) and scored first in all ten. Croatia conceded in the first half in 5 of 10, with 11 of their 22 goals against coming before half-time. Correlated with the first pick.
- Actual
- 0
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Spain to score at least twice: Croatia's defence has collapsed, and Spain's depth survives rotation.
- 1Croatia conceded 11 goals in their last two Nations League games.
- 2Spain scored first in all ten of their recent away games.
- 3Croatia had a virus in the squad; Spain rotate but stay unbeaten in 41.
Go deeper
What happened1–2 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
1–2
Goals
3 (we expected 3.0)
Corners
9 (we expected 9.0)
Cards
7 (we expected 3.6)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 10% | 10% | 0 |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | +1 |
| Spain win | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.10
Expected corners
9.0
Expected cards
3.6
Likeliest scores
0-2 (11%) · 1-2 (10%) · 0-3 (8%)
Late team news (5)Match at Stadion Poljud, Split; Croatia's previous home game v England was behind closed doors, this one is with fans.
Match at Stadion Poljud, Split; Croatia's previous home game v England was behind closed doors, this one is with fans.
2026-02-13reliability: highcroatiaweek.com
Erlić injured; Juranović out ill; a virus went through the squad (Modrić, Baturina, Stanišić), and Modrić played with a fever.
2026-10-05reliability: mediumrotowire.com
Pongracic, Majer, Budimir and Beljo left out of the squad; Vušković, Pašalić, Mišić, Sučić and Pongracic one booking from suspension. Predicted XI: Livaković; Smolčić, Šutalo, Vušković, Gvardiol; Modrić, Kovačić; Ivanović, Pašalić, Vlašić; Matanović.
2026-10-05reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Spain without Ferran Torres (ankle), Nico Williams and Grimaldo (withdrawn), and Fabián Ruiz (birth of child); De la Fuente made 9 changes v Czechia and further rotation is expected; predicted XI includes Simón, Huijsen, Cubarsí, Zubimendi, Pedri, Yamal, Oyarzabal.
2026-10-05reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Spain unbeaten in 41 matches and top of the group with 3 wins from 3; Croatia third on 3 points.
2026-10-05reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongHeavy Spain rotation and a rain-soaked, cagey Croatia reaction game keep Spain to a 1-0 or 1-1.
Heavy Spain rotation and a rain-soaked, cagey Croatia reaction game keep Spain to a 1-0 or 1-1.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed lineups
- Whether the Croatia players hit by the virus have fully recovered
- Exact extent of Spain's rotation
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Croatia | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals for – against | 2.3 – 1.2 | 2.6 – 0.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.30 – 1.35 | 2.05 – 0.69 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 6.7 – 3.2 | 4.7 – 4.3 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.1 – 1.5 | 1.3 – 2.0 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
8 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 5 away wins · 3.9 goals per game.
- 2026-09-29 · Spain 4–1 Croatia
- 2024-06-15 · Spain 3–0 Croatia
- 2023-06-18 · Croatia 0–0 Spain
- 2021-06-28 · Croatia 3–5 Spain
- 2018-11-15 · Croatia 3–2 Spain
Referee
Eric Lambrechts (Belgium)
This season: 4.13 yellows and 22.1 fouls per game over 39 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.20 yellows per game.
Absences
Croatia
M. Erlić (injured: Unknown)
Spain
E. García (injured: Knee Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
N. Williams (injured: Thigh Injury)
P. Porro (injured: Physical Discomfort)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Croatia
9.10
Draw
6.02
Spain
1.26
Over 2.5 goals
1.43
Under 2.5 goals
2.67
Both score: yes
1.83
Both score: no
1.89
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.0%.
Last 10 games — Croatia
| 10-03 | H | England | 0–7 | L |
| 09-29 | A | Spain | 1–4 | L |
| 09-26 | A | Czechia | 2–1 | W |
| 07-02 | A | Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 06-27 | H | Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 06-23 | A | Panama | 1–0 | W |
| 06-17 | A | England | 2–4 | L |
| 11-17 | A | Montenegro | 3–2 | W |
| 11-14 | H | Faroe Islands | 3–1 | W |
| 10-12 | H | Gibraltar | 3–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Spain
| 10-03 | H | Czechia | 3–1 | W |
| 09-29 | H | Croatia | 4–1 | W |
| 09-26 | A | England | 3–2 | W |
| 07-19 | H | Argentina | 0–0 | D |
| 07-14 | A | France | 2–0 | W |
| 07-10 | H | Belgium | 2–1 | W |
| 07-06 | A | Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 07-02 | H | Austria | 3–0 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Uruguay | 1–0 | W |
| 06-21 | H | Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Spain should win comfortably in Split: Croatia are low after a 7-0 home thrashing and had a virus in the squad, while Spain have scored early and often away from home.
Data (pack). Croatia: 0-7 at home to England, and 1-4 away to Spain a week earlier. In their last 10 games they conceded 2.2 a game, with 4 of those goals in the first 15 minutes. Their strong home record (8-1-1) was built mostly against qualifying minnows. Spain: 9-1-0 in their last 10, conceding 0.5 a game. Away from home they scored 2.6 a game, scored first in 10 of 10 and scored in the first half in 9 of 10 (16 of 26 away goals came before the break). They scored 2+ in 8 of their last 10 away games. Head-to-head: 3.9 goals a game; Spain won the last two meetings 4-1 and 3-0. Referee Lambrechts: 4.1-4.2 yellows a game, but both teams pick up few cards (about 1 each), so there is no card angle. Corners: the third-party model has over 8.5 at about 51%, so no corners pick.
News (web). Croatia: Erlić out, Juranović ill, and a virus went through the squad (Modrić played with a fever). Pongracic, Majer, Budimir and Beljo were left out. Five Croatia players are one booking from a suspension. Spain: Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Grimaldo withdrew; Fabián Ruiz is away for the birth of his child; Cubarsí was rested last time. De la Fuente made nine changes against Czechia and is expected to rotate again, but the predicted lineup still includes Yamal, Pedri, Oyarzabal and Zubimendi. The game is at Poljud in Split with fans; rain is forecast.
Market. Spain 74% and over 2.5 at 65% look fair. After the usual bump for scoring I get over 2.5 at about 67%, under the 4-point bar, so no priced pick. The edge sits in Spain's own scoring. With Spain expected to score about 2.1, two or more Spain goals comes out near 62%, backed by their 8-of-10 away record and Croatia letting in 2+ in 6 of 10. Spain scoring in the first half is about 62%: they did it in 9 of 10 away games, and Croatia conceded before the break in 5 of 10.
Uncertainties. How much Spain rotate, a Croatia reaction in front of a home crowd, and the rain slowing the game. The two picks are correlated.
Analysed by opus with web research.