Ukraine vs Hungary prediction
Ukraine
HungaryOur pick
Goals over/under 2.5
under 2.5 goals
Both sides lack their first-choice strikers, and five of their six group games had two goals or fewer.
Why this pick
Both sides lack their first-choice strikers, and five of their six group games had two goals or fewer.
Five of the six Nations League games for these teams had two goals or fewer, and the first meeting ended 1-0. Ukraine's chances created have collapsed in recent games. Both sides are missing first-choice strikers (Dovbyk and Sikan for Ukraine, Barnabás Varga for Hungary). It's a neutral venue and a third game in about 10 days.
- Odds
- 1.70
- Odds imply
- 55.7%
- Actual
- 3
Our probability is higher than the bookmaker's price implies — that gap is the edge.
In short
Back under 2.5 goals: both sides are missing their main strikers and their group games have been low-scoring.
- 1Five of six group games for these sides ended with two goals or fewer.
- 2Dovbyk, Sikan and Barnabás Varga are all out, so both attacks are weakened.
- 3We make under 2.5 goals 60%; the price implies about 56%.
Go deeper
What happened1–2 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
1–2
Goals
3 (we expected 2.2)
Corners
9 (we expected 8.6)
Cards
3 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 19%, bookmakers 24%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine win | 37% | 38% | -1 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Hungary win | 32% | 33% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 69% | -4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 24% | -5 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% | -5 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 15% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.05
Expected corners
8.6
Expected cards
4.0
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 1-0 (11%) · 0-1 (10%)
Late team news (4)Ukraine without Sikan and Matviyenko (suspended); Mykolenko left camp injured; Dovbyk unavailable.
Ukraine without Sikan and Matviyenko (suspended); Mykolenko left camp injured; Dovbyk unavailable.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumunn.ua
Match played at a neutral venue: Anton Malatinský Stadium, Trnava, Slovakia.
reliability: highhungarytoday.hu
Kerkez suspended and released from Hungary camp early; Szoboszlai's substitution against Georgia was only cramp.
2026-10-03reliability: highthisisanfield.com
Predicted XIs: Ukraine with Yaremchuk up front and Sudakov/Tsygankov; Hungary with Markgraf for Kerkez and Osvath at right-back, Szoboszlai starting.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongAn early goal or a red card from Pajač, who sends off 0.29 players a game, opens the match up.
An early goal or a red card from Pajač, who sends off 0.29 players a game, opens the match up.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Barnabás Varga's injury not independently confirmed by web source
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Ukraine | Hungary | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals for – against | 1.1 – 1.3 | 0.9 – 1.8 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.21 – 1.30 | 1.31 – 1.74 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 5.5 – 4.3 | 4.5 – 4.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.6 | 2.6 – 2.0 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins · 1.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-25 · Hungary 0–1 Ukraine
Referee
Igor Pajač (Croatia)
This season: 4.07 yellows and 21.6 fouls per game over 14 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.00 yellows per game.
Absences
Ukraine
D. Sikan (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
M. Matvienko (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
Hungary
B. Varga (injured: Thigh Injury)
B. Bolla (injured: Ankle Injury)
D. Redzic (injured: Ankle Injury)
M. Kerkez (suspended: yellow_card_accumulation_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Ukraine
2.43
Draw
3.23
Hungary
2.86
Over 2.5 goals
2.14
Under 2.5 goals
1.70
Both score: yes
1.87
Both score: no
1.85
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 7.1%.
Last 10 games — Ukraine
| 10-02 | H | Northern Ireland | 0–3 | L |
| 09-28 | A | Georgia | 0–0 | D |
| 09-25 | A | Hungary | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | H | Sweden | 1–3 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Iceland | 2–0 | W |
| 11-13 | A | France | 0–4 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Azerbaijan | 2–1 | W |
| 10-10 | A | Iceland | 5–3 | W |
| 09-09 | A | Azerbaijan | 1–1 | D |
| 09-05 | H | France | 0–2 | L |
Last 10 games — Hungary
| 10-02 | H | Georgia | 1–0 | W |
| 09-28 | A | Northern Ireland | 0–0 | D |
| 09-25 | H | Ukraine | 0–1 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Ireland | 2–3 | L |
| 11-13 | A | Armenia | 1–0 | W |
| 10-14 | A | Portugal | 2–2 | D |
| 10-11 | H | Armenia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-09 | H | Portugal | 2–3 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Ireland | 2–2 | D |
| 03-23 | H | Türkiye | 0–3 | L |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Ukraine and Hungary meet in neutral Trnava, both without their first-choice strikers; under 2.5 goals is the one small edge.
Data (pack). Both teams' Nations League games have been tight. Ukraine: 1-0 away to Hungary, 0-0 in Georgia, 0-3 at home to Northern Ireland. Hungary: 0-1, 0-0, 1-0. Ukraine's chances created are poor: 0.99 per game over 10 matches, and only 0.2–0.4 in the last two. Hungary create 1.44 per game but score only 0.9 per game away. The head-to-head was 1-0 three weeks ago. Hungary score early (8 of 12 goals before half-time). Ukraine score late (5 of 12 after the 75th minute). Corners average about 8.2 per game for each side, close to the Bzzoiro line of 8.5 at 50%, so there's no corners edge. Referee Pajač shows 4.07 yellows and 0.29 reds per game. After the card correction we expect about 4.0 cards, which isn't enough for a pick.
News (web). Ukraine are without Sikan and Matviyenko (both suspended), Mykolenko (injured, left camp) and Dovbyk. The predicted striker is Yaremchuk. Hungary are without Kerkez (suspended, released from camp), Bolla and Redzic, and the pack lists striker Barnabás Varga as injured. Szoboszlai's substitution against Georgia was only cramp, so he should start. The game is in Trnava, Slovakia, so Ukraine's home edge is reduced.
Market. Our 1X2 is close to the prices (37/31/32). Our only deviation is on goals: both first-choice strikers are out, the group games have been low-scoring, and both teams are playing their third game in about 10 days. That puts under 2.5 at about 60% against 55.7% implied, just over the 4-point bar. Confidence is low.
Uncertainties. These are small samples. Hungary's shot volume (26 against Georgia) could produce goals. Ukraine conceded three to Northern Ireland, so their defence could collapse again.
Analysed by opus with web research.