Italy vs Türkiye prediction
Italy
TürkiyeOur pick
Türkiye total goals
Türkiye under 1.5 goals
Türkiye's four best attacking players are missing and they've scored once in three Nations League games.
Why this pick
Türkiye's four best attacking players are missing and they've scored once in three Nations League games.
Türkiye are without Güler, Barış Yılmaz (suspended), Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu (injured). They scored 1.0 per game in their last 10 and failed to score in 40%, with one goal in three Nations League games. Italy kept clean sheets in 40% of home games and allowed only 1.13 expected goals at home. Raw estimate about 72%, shrunk toward the base rate per past team-goals results.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Türkiye to score under 1.5 goals: four key attacking players are out and they've scored once in three games.
- 1Türkiye are missing Güler, Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu and Barış Yılmaz.
- 2Türkiye have one goal in three Nations League games, all defeats.
- 3Italy's win price is fair even with nine changes to their side.
Go deeper
What happened3–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
3–1
Goals
4 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
12 (we expected 10.0)
Cards
4 (we expected 3.6)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 35%, bookmakers 42%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy win | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 0 |
| Türkiye win | 14% | 15% | -1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 83% | -3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | -5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 42% | -7 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 55% | -4 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 14% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.00
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
3.6
Late team news (6)Arda Güler suspended for Italy match after yellow card vs Belgium; Barış Yılmaz also suspended; Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu injured.
Arda Güler suspended for Italy match after yellow card vs Belgium; Barış Yılmaz also suspended; Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu injured.
2026-10-03reliability: highfootitalia.com
Moise Kean has left the Italy camp injured; Scamacca expected to start.
2026-10-04reliability: highsport.sky.it
Mancini tested an XI with 9 changes from the France draw; probable XI: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Ruggeri; Barella, Romano, Doumbia; Vergara, Scamacca, Maldini.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumsport.sky.it
Probable Türkiye XI (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Yuksek, Özkan; Aydin, Akgun, Akturkoglu; Gul.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumsport.sky.it
Montella reportedly playing for his job after Türkiye's three straight Nations League defeats.
2026-10-04reliability: mediumen.lasicilia.it
Match at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna; Szymon Marciniak confirmed as referee.
2026-10reliability: highsports.yahoo.com
What could go wrongItaly's heavily rotated defence leaks late goals, like the four they conceded at home to Norway.
Italy's heavily rotated defence leaks late goals, like the four they conceded at home to Norway.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Exact Türkiye replacement for Barış Yılmaz up front (sources differ)
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Italy | Türkiye | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals for – against | 2.1 – 1.4 | 2.0 – 1.5 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.94 – 1.13 | 1.48 – 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Corners for – against | 7.5 – 4.2 | 4.7 – 4.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.8 – 1.7 | 3.6 – 2.9 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
5 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 3.2 goals per game.
- 2026-09-28 · Türkiye 1–4 Italy
- 2024-06-04 · Italy 0–0 Türkiye
- 2022-03-29 · Türkiye 2–3 Italy
- 2021-06-11 · Türkiye 0–3 Italy
- 2000-06-11 · Türkiye 1–2 Italy
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
This season: 3.51 yellows and 24.9 fouls per game over 47 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.00 yellows per game.
Absences
Italy
G. Raspadori (injured: Thigh Injury)
Türkiye
H. Çalhanoğlu (injured: Groin Injury)
K. Yıldız (injured: Broken Foot)
M. Müldür (injured: Meniscus Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Italy
1.43
Draw
4.88
Türkiye
6.16
Over 2.5 goals
1.48
Under 2.5 goals
2.56
Both score: yes
1.68
Both score: no
2.08
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.7%.
Last 10 games — Italy
| 10-02 | A | France | 1–1 | D |
| 09-28 | A | Türkiye | 4–1 | W |
| 09-25 | H | Belgium | 0–2 | L |
| 03-31 | A | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | D |
| 03-26 | H | Northern Ireland | 2–0 | W |
| 11-16 | H | Norway | 1–4 | L |
| 11-13 | A | Moldova | 2–0 | W |
| 10-14 | H | Israel | 3–0 | W |
| 10-11 | A | Estonia | 3–1 | W |
| 09-08 | A | Israel | 5–4 | W |
Last 10 games — Türkiye
| 10-02 | A | Belgium | 0–3 | L |
| 09-28 | H | Italy | 1–4 | L |
| 09-25 | H | France | 0–1 | L |
| 06-26 | H | USA | 3–2 | W |
| 06-20 | H | Paraguay | 0–1 | L |
| 06-14 | A | Australia | 0–2 | L |
| 03-31 | A | Kosovo | 1–0 | W |
| 03-26 | H | Romania | 1–0 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Spain | 2–2 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Bulgaria | 2–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Italy should beat a badly weakened Türkiye side missing Güler, Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu and Barış Yılmaz, but the price already reflects that; the only lean is Türkiye scoring once or not at all.
Data (pack). Italy are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and score 2.2 per game. At home they score 2.1 and concede 1.4, but their expected goals against at home is only 1.13 and they kept clean sheets in 40% of home games. They score late: 6 of 22 goals came after the 75th minute. Türkiye are 4-1-5, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. They failed to score in 40% of games and have lost all three Nations League games 0-1, 1-4 and 0-3. They concede early (8 of 15 goals in the first half). Italy won 4-1 in Türkiye eight days ago. Referee Marciniak averages 3.51 yellows per game this season and 3.0 in his last 10. Türkiye pick up 3.6 yellows per away game.
News (web). Türkiye are without Arda Güler and Barış Yılmaz (both suspended) and Kenan Yıldız and Çalhanoğlu (both injured), on top of Müldür. That removes most of their creative players. Montella is reportedly playing for his job. Italy (Mancini) are expected to make nine changes from the draw in France. Kean has gone home injured and Raspadori is out, so Scamacca is expected to lead the line. Only Donnarumma and Bastoni are expected to keep their places.
Market. Home 65.6%, over 2.5 goals 63.4%, both sides scoring 55.3%. Türkiye's losses push me up on Italy (67%), and Italy's rotation pulls me back. Neither gap reaches 4 points. I rate both sides scoring at about 51%, which is below the market but not by enough to bet. I have total goals around 2.75, so over 2.5 is roughly 58%, a little under the market. That isn't an edge either.
Lean. Türkiye under 1.5 goals. Raw expected goals of about 1.0 would give around 72%. I shrank that to 63% per past results on team-goals picks. Supporting signals: the absences, their 1.0 goals per game, and Italy's 40% home clean-sheet rate.
Uncertainties. Italy's rotated XI is untested together. Türkiye's chances-created numbers in recent losses were decent (1.9 in the 1-4). Corners (about 10 expected) and cards (about 3.6 after the downward adjustment) don't give a clear case for a pick.
Analysed by opus with web research.