Netherlands vs Serbia prediction
Netherlands
SerbiaOur pick
Netherlands goals in second half
Netherlands over 0.5 second-half goals
The Dutch scored after half-time in each of their last 10 games, and Serbia tire late away.
Why this pick
The Dutch scored after half-time in each of their last 10 games, and Serbia tire late away.
The Netherlands scored after half-time in 10 of their last 10 games and 9 of their last 10 at home. Most of their goals come after the break (16 of 25). Serbia let in half their away goals after half-time and were overrun at Germany three days ago (32 shots against). A scoring model gives about 72%, shrunk to 65% because of the depleted Dutch attack and the lesson on team-goals picks.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back the Netherlands to score in the second half. Their goals come late and Serbia fade away from home.
- 1Netherlands scored after half-time in all of their last 10 games.
- 2Serbia are without striker Vlahovic and managed one shot in Germany.
- 3Win and goals prices match our numbers, so there's no value there.
Go deeper
What happened2–1 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
2–1
Goals
3 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
10 (we expected 10.0)
Cards
6 (we expected 3.3)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 44%, bookmakers 48%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 79% | 81% | -2 |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | +1 |
| Serbia win | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 86% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 69% | -3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 48% | -4 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.75
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
3.3
Likeliest scores
2-0 (14%) · 3-0 (10%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (5)Gakpo and Brobbey are out injured.
Gakpo and Brobbey are out injured. Mexx Meerdink (two goals in two caps) is expected to lead the line. Xavi is expected to make about three changes.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Serbia (coach Paunovic) report no new injury concerns. Jovic is expected to start up front.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Dusan Vlahovic is injured and will miss all four Nations League games in this window.
reliability: highb92.net
Brobbey, Gakpo, Geertruida and Van Hecke left the Dutch camp injured. Xavi Simons and Frenkie de Jong are long-term absentees. Predicted XI: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Aké, Van de Ven; Veerman, Reijnders, Gravenberch; Summerville, Meerdink, Lang.
2026-10reliability: mediumfcupdate.nl
The match is at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven. Netherlands sit second in the group on 5 points and Serbia are bottom on 0.
2026-10-03reliability: mediumthehardtackle.com
What could go wrongXavi rotates a front line already missing Gakpo and Brobbey, and the Dutch go quiet after an early lead.
Xavi rotates a front line already missing Gakpo and Brobbey, and the Dutch go quiet after an early lead.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Referee confirmation beyond the pack
- Exact extent of Dutch rotation
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Netherlands | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals for – against | 3.2 – 0.8 | 0.6 – 1.2 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.29 – 0.91 | 0.90 – 1.79 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Corners for – against | 6.8 – 3.5 | 4.8 – 5.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.1 – 1.5 | 2.0 – 1.4 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins · 3.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-27 · Serbia 1–2 Netherlands
Referee
Donatas Rumsas (Lithuania)
This season: 3.88 yellows and 24.3 fouls per game over 24 matches.
Last 10 matches: 4.70 yellows per game.
Absences
Netherlands
B. Brobbey (injured: Hamstring Injury)
C. Gakpo (injured: Ankle Injury)
D. Malen (injured: Knee Injury)
F. de Jong (injured: Meniscus Injury)
J. P. van Hecke (injured: Knock Injury)
J. Kluivert (injured: Strain Injury)
M. Wieffer (injured: Knee Injury)
Serbia
None reported
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Netherlands
1.16
Draw
7.57
Serbia
14.08
Over 2.5 goals
1.36
Under 2.5 goals
3.05
Both score: yes
2.05
Both score: no
1.70
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.5%.
Last 10 games — Netherlands
| 10-01 | A | Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 09-24 | H | Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 06-30 | H | Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
| 06-20 | H | Sweden | 5–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Japan | 2–2 | D |
| 11-17 | H | Lithuania | 4–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Poland | 1–1 | D |
| 10-12 | H | Finland | 4–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Serbia
| 10-01 | A | Germany | 0–2 | L |
| 09-27 | H | Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 09-24 | H | Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 11-16 | H | Latvia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-13 | A | England | 0–2 | L |
| 10-14 | A | Andorra | 3–1 | W |
| 10-11 | H | Albania | 0–1 | L |
| 09-09 | H | England | 0–5 | L |
| 09-06 | A | Latvia | 1–0 | W |
| 06-10 | H | Andorra | 3–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 3 min read
Netherlands should beat a struggling Serbia, but the 1.16 price is fair; the only lean is the Dutch scoring after half-time, which they've done in all of their last 10 games.
Data (pack). Netherlands are unbeaten in 10 (5-5-0). At home they score 3.2 and concede 0.8 a game, with 2.29 xG for and 0.91 against, and they have scored in all 10. Their goals come late: 16 of 25 overall and 19 of 32 at home arrive after the break. Serbia have lost four of their last five. Away from home they average 0.6 goals and 0.9 xG, failed to score in 60% of games, and scored first in only 1 of 8. Over the last 10 they let in half their away goals after half-time (6 of 12). At Germany three days ago they had 1 shot to 32 and 1 corner to 12. The Netherlands won the reverse fixture 2-1 on 27 September (xG 2.8-1.5). The worry: the Dutch have conceded in each of their last seven games. Referee Rumsas shows 3.88 yellows a game this season and 4.7 over his last 10. Both teams are low on cards, at about 1.0-2.0 each.
News (web). Xavi is the Netherlands coach and is expected to make two or three changes. Gakpo, Brobbey and Van Hecke are out, and the pack also lists Malen, Kluivert, F. de Jong and Wieffer. Meerdink (two goals in two caps) is likely to lead the line. Serbia are without Vlahovic for this window but have no new problems. Jovic is expected up front. The game is in Eindhoven, with rain forecast.
Market. Our 1X2 (79/13.5/7.5) and goals numbers (over 2.5 at 66%, both teams scoring at 43%) sit within 3 points of the no-margin prices. That leaves no priced edge. The 'both teams to score: no' case falls short because the Dutch keep conceding. The one non-priced lean is Netherlands to score in the second half. They did so in 10 of their last 10 games and 9 of their last 10 at home, and Serbia leak late. A simple scoring model puts it near 72%. Applying the team-goals lesson, we shrink that to 65%.
Corners and cards. We expect about 10 corners, in line with Bzzoiro's 48.6% for over 9.5. The Dutch hit 6+ corners in only 4 of their last 10, so there's no corners pick. We expect about 3.3 cards after the downward adjustment, so there's no cards pick either.
Uncertainties. The Dutch attack is heavily depleted and both teams are on three days' rest. Serbia may sit deep and frustrate. An early Dutch lead could slow the second half.
Analysed by opus with web research.