Greece vs Germany prediction
Greece
GermanyOur pick
Total corners
over 8.5 corners
Both teams' recent games usually reach nine corners; Germany pinned Greece back last week.
Why this pick
Both teams' recent games usually reach nine corners; Germany pinned Greece back last week.
Germany's games average 11.1 total corners and 8 of their last 10 went over 8.5. Six of Greece's last 9 with stats went over, and Greece average 13 total at home (small sample). The Bzzoiro model gives 62.5%. In the reverse fixture Germany won 8 corners to Greece's 2, so Germany should push Greece back again.
- Actual
- 5
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back over 8.5 corners: both teams' recent games regularly clear it. Result and goals prices look fair.
- 1Eight of Germany's last ten games had nine or more corners.
- 2Germany have lost Musiala and Havertz; Klopp is fielding a young, experimental team.
- 3Our result and goals numbers sit within two points of the bookmaker prices.
Go deeper
What happened0–0 · 0 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–0
Goals
0 (we expected 2.6)
Corners
5 (we expected 10.0)
Cards
7 (we expected 3.5)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 31%, bookmakers 36%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece win | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Germany win | 47% | 50% | -3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 79% | -2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | -4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 36% | -5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | -4 |
| Penalty in the match | 25% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 12% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.45
Expected corners
10.0
Expected cards
3.5
Likeliest scores
1-1 (12%) · 0-1 (10%) · 1-2 (9%)
Late team news (6)Christos Tzolis is out with a hamstring injury picked up against the Netherlands; Masouras is expected to replace him.
Christos Tzolis is out with a hamstring injury picked up against the Netherlands; Masouras is expected to replace him.
2026-10-03reliability: highsi.com
Tzolis has left the squad; Dimitris Pelkas has been called up as his replacement.
2026-10-03reliability: mediumgazzetta.gr
Germany, now coached by Jürgen Klopp, are without Musiala (thigh) and Havertz (muscle bruise).
2026-10-03reliability: highsi.com
Predicted Germany XI: Urbig; Treu, Anton, Thiaw, Raum; Pavlović, Engelhardt; Karl, Wirtz, El Mala; Burkardt.
2026-10-03reliability: mediumsi.com
Schlotterbeck has withdrawn from the squad; Kimmich and Nmecha are reportedly dropped (not confirmed elsewhere).
2026-10reliability: lowgoal.com
The match is at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, and Clément Turpin is the referee.
2026-10-03reliability: highsi.com
What could go wrongGermany score early, then keep the ball and the game slows down, leaving only seven or eight corners.
Germany score early, then keep the ball and the game slows down, leaving only seven or eight corners.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Whether Kimmich and Nmecha are in Germany's squad (sources conflict)
- Bookmaker prices for corners
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Greece | Germany | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals for – against | 2.0 – 1.3 | 1.3 – 1.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.79 – 1.39 | 1.59 – 1.38 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 6.5 – 6.5 | 4.2 – 4.8 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.7 – 1.6 | 2.5 – 3.1 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins · 3.3 goals per game.
- 2026-09-27 · Germany 0–1 Greece
- 2024-06-07 · Germany 2–1 Greece
- 2012-06-22 · Germany 4–2 Greece
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
This season: 3.48 yellows and 22.8 fouls per game over 46 matches.
Last 10 matches: 2.50 yellows per game.
Absences
Greece
C. Tzolis (injured: Hamstring Injury)
Germany
A. Ouédraogo (injured: Shoulder Injury)
B. Gruda (injured: Muscle Injury)
J. Musiala (injured: Thigh Injury)
L. Goretzka (injured: Knee Injury)
N. Schlotterbeck (injured: Ankle Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Greece
3.79
Draw
3.76
Germany
1.86
Over 2.5 goals
1.67
Under 2.5 goals
2.19
Both score: yes
1.59
Both score: no
2.24
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.7%.
Last 10 games — Greece
| 10-01 | H | Netherlands | 2–2 | D |
| 09-27 | A | Germany | 1–0 | W |
| 09-24 | A | Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 11-18 | A | Belarus | 0–0 | D |
| 11-15 | H | Scotland | 3–2 | W |
| 10-12 | A | Denmark | 1–3 | L |
| 10-09 | A | Scotland | 1–3 | L |
| 09-08 | H | Denmark | 0–3 | L |
| 09-05 | H | Belarus | 5–1 | W |
| 03-23 | A | Scotland | 3–0 | W |
Last 10 games — Germany
| 10-01 | H | Serbia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-27 | H | Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 09-24 | A | Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 06-29 | H | Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 06-25 | A | Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
| 06-20 | H | Côte d'Ivoire | 2–1 | W |
| 06-14 | H | Curaçao | 7–1 | W |
| 11-17 | H | Slovakia | 6–0 | W |
| 11-14 | A | Luxembourg | 2–0 | W |
| 10-13 | A | Northern Ireland | 1–0 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Germany are rightly favoured but a much-changed, inexperienced side and a confident home Greece keep this close; the only bet worth taking is over 8.5 corners.
Data (pack). Greece are top of the group: they won 1-0 in Germany and 2-1 in Serbia, then drew 2-2 with the Netherlands. Their last 10 home games: 6-1-3, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. They have played again after 3 days' rest and concede late (9 of their last 15 goals against came after the hour). Germany are strong across all games (2.3 scored, 0.7 conceded), but away from home they drop to 4-4-2 with 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded, and only 40% of those games had three or more goals. Corners: Germany's games average 11.1 in total and 8 of their last 10 had 9 or more. Six of Greece's last 9 with stats had 9 or more. Greece's home average is 13, but that comes from only 4 games. Referee Turpin: 3.48 yellows per game this season, 2.5 in his last 10, no reds.
News (web). Tzolis is out with a hamstring injury, so Masouras or Pelkas comes in (SI, Greek press). Germany, now under Klopp, are without Musiala and Havertz, and Schlotterbeck has withdrawn. The predicted XI is experimental: Urbig in goal, Treu, Anton, Thiaw, Raum, Pavlović, Engelhardt, Karl, Wirtz, El Mala and Burkardt. One report says Kimmich and Nmecha were dropped; another predicted XI still includes them, so this is unclear. The game is at Toumba in Thessaloniki.
Market. The bookmakers have Germany at 50.4% to win and over 2.5 goals at 56.7%. Given Germany's rotation and Greece's form and home record, I shade a couple of points toward Greece (27/26/47). That is not enough for a priced edge on the 1X2. I put goals slightly under the market (53% for over 2.5) because Germany's away games tend to be low-scoring. No priced line clears the 4-point bar.
Corners. Over 8.5: both teams' recent records clear it, and the third-party model gives 62.5%. Greece's 2-8 corner count in Augsburg shows Germany pinning them back, and Greece also earn corners at home. I put it at 61%, kept near the base rate under the medium-confidence lesson.
Uncertainties. Germany's XI is unconfirmed and Klopp's side is still new. Greece have had a short turnaround. Corner data for Greece's home games is thin.
Analysed by opus with web research.