Switzerland vs North Macedonia prediction
Switzerland
North MacedoniaOur pick
Switzerland team goals
Switzerland over 1.5 goals
Switzerland scored twice in seven of ten home games; North Macedonia conceded two-plus in four straight.
Why this pick
Switzerland scored twice in seven of ten home games; North Macedonia conceded two-plus in four straight.
Switzerland scored 2+ in 7 of their last 10 home games and average 2.4 home goals. North Macedonia conceded 2+ in each of their last four (2.0 per game, 17 shots faced). The reverse fixture ended 3-0 with xG 2.1-0.1, and the market and model expect roughly 2.0 to 2.3 Swiss goals.
- Actual
- 3
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back Switzerland to score two or more: they did it in seven of their last ten home games.
- 1Switzerland beat this side 3-0 ten days ago, with 23 shots to 2.
- 2North Macedonia have lost four straight without scoring, conceding twice or more each time.
- 3The market's prices on the result and total goals look right; no priced edge.
Go deeper
What happened3–0 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
3–0
Goals
3 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
11 (we expected 9.2)
Cards
1 (we expected 4.0)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 85% | 86% | -1 |
| Draw | 10% | 10% | 0 |
| North Macedonia win | 5% | 4% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 46% | -2 |
| Both teams score | 34% | 34% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 22% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 9% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.60
Expected corners
9.2
Expected cards
4.0
Likeliest scores
2-0 (14%) · 3-0 (11%) · 1-0 (9%)
Late team news (2)Switzerland's first two Nations League home games (Slovenia, North Macedonia) are in Lucerne.
Switzerland's first two Nations League home games (Slovenia, North Macedonia) are in Lucerne.
reliability: mediumbluewin.ch
Yakin's 25-man squad for this window includes Breel Embolo and 20-year-old Sascha Britschgi; Switzerland are targeting promotion back to League A.
reliability: mediumkhelnow.com
What could go wrongSwitzerland rest players for a third game in ten days, and a packed North Macedonia defence keeps it 1-0.
Switzerland rest players for a third game in ten days, and a packed North Macedonia defence keeps it 1-0.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed or probable lineups and rotation plans for either side
- Fresh injury news beyond the pack's absence list
- Referee confirmation from an independent source
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Switzerland | North Macedonia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals for – against | 2.4 – 0.7 | 1.1 – 1.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 1.76 – 0.73 | 1.05 – 1.86 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Corners for – against | 4.0 – 3.9 | 2.8 – 7.5 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.4 – 2.2 | 1.9 – 1.6 |
| Days since last match | 3 | 3 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
1 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins · 3.0 goals per game.
- 2026-09-26 · North Macedonia 0–3 Switzerland
Referee
Edgars Malcevs (Latvia)
This season: 4.60 yellows and 29.2 fouls per game over 5 matches.
Last 5 matches: 4.60 yellows per game.
Absences
Switzerland
A. Amenda (injured: Calf Injury)
D. Zakaria (injured: Groin Injury)
L. Jaquez (injured: Muscle Injury)
R. Vargas (injured: Knee Injury)
S. Widmer (injured: Knee Injury)
North Macedonia
J. Atanasov (suspended: yellow_or_red_card_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Switzerland
1.10
Draw
9.65
North Macedonia
24.77
Over 2.5 goals
1.39
Under 2.5 goals
2.79
Both score: yes
2.71
Both score: no
1.42
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.3%.
Last 10 games — Switzerland
| 10-03 | H | Slovenia | 2–1 | W |
| 09-29 | A | Scotland | 3–0 | W |
| 09-26 | A | North Macedonia | 3–0 | W |
| 07-12 | A | Argentina | 1–1 | D |
| 07-07 | H | Colombia | 0–0 | D |
| 07-03 | H | Algeria | 2–0 | W |
| 06-24 | H | Canada | 2–1 | W |
| 06-18 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | W |
| 06-13 | A | Qatar | 1–1 | D |
| 11-18 | A | Kosovo | 1–1 | D |
Last 10 games — North Macedonia
| 10-03 | H | Scotland | 0–2 | L |
| 09-29 | A | Slovenia | 0–2 | L |
| 09-26 | H | Switzerland | 0–3 | L |
| 03-26 | A | Denmark | 0–4 | L |
| 11-18 | A | Wales | 1–7 | L |
| 10-13 | H | Kazakhstan | 1–1 | D |
| 10-10 | A | Belgium | 0–0 | D |
| 09-07 | H | Liechtenstein | 5–0 | W |
| 06-09 | A | Kazakhstan | 1–0 | W |
| 06-06 | H | Belgium | 1–1 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Switzerland should beat North Macedonia comfortably; the one lean is Switzerland scoring at least two, against a side that has failed to score in four straight games and concedes 2 a game.
Data (pack). Switzerland are unbeaten in 10 (6-4-0). At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, and 7 of their last 10 home games had over 2.5 goals. In this window they won 3-0 in Skopje (xG 2.1-0.1, shots 23-2), 3-0 at Scotland and 2-1 against Slovenia. North Macedonia have lost four in a row without scoring (0-2, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4). Over 10 games they average 0.9 goals scored, 2.0 conceded, xG against 2.23 and 17.4 shots faced. They have conceded 13 of their 20 goals after the break, and Switzerland score 11 of their 18 in the second half. Switzerland scored 2+ in 7/10 home games; North Macedonia conceded 2+ in 6/10 overall and in all of the last four. Corners: Switzerland average 4.4 for and North Macedonia give up 7.3, so the total is about 9. That sits on the Bzzoiro line (8.5 over 56.6%), so there's no edge. Cards: North Macedonia average 3.0 yellows and Switzerland 0.8. Referee Malcevs averages 4.6 per game, but the expected total is about 4, so the line is a coin flip.
News (web). Nothing new on injuries for either side. The pack lists Amenda, Zakaria, Jaquez, Vargas and Widmer out for Switzerland and Atanasov suspended for North Macedonia. Bluewin confirms the game is in Lucerne. This is the third game in ten days for both teams, so Switzerland may rotate, but their squad depth is far greater.
Market. Home win 86.3% and over 2.5 at 66.7% look right. Past results suggest pushing goals up slightly; I have over 2.5 at 68%, below the 4-point bar, and both sides scoring at 34% matches the price. So there are no priced picks. Switzerland to score 2+ isn't priced in the pack. Four signals back it: their home scoring rate, North Macedonia's goals conceded, the 3-0 in the reverse fixture and a model expectation of about 2.0. I put it at about 64%.
Uncertainties. Possible rotation. Switzerland's home xG (1.76) is lower than their goal output. Draws against Colombia and Kosovo show they sometimes stall.
Analysed by opus with web research.