Spain vs Czechia prediction
Spain
CzechiaOur picks
Second-half goals
over 0.5 second-half goals
Czechia concede almost all their goals late, and Spain keep scoring after half-time.
Why this pick
Czechia concede almost all their goals late, and Spain keep scoring after half-time.
About 1.6 goals expected after the break. Czechia conceded 12 of their last 14 goals (all competitions) and 14 of their last 17 away goals in the second half. Spain scored after the break in 7 of 9 games with known timing, and their goals are spread evenly across both halves. Czechia are depleted (Šulc suspended, Karabec doubtful).
- Actual
- 2
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
64%Total cardsunder 4.5 cardsLost
Spain average 0.7 yellows a game and rarely foul in dangerous areas. The referee averaged 3.4 yellows over his last 10 games. Czechia average 0.7 yellows overall. Expected total is about 3.2 after the correction for over-predicting cards. Risks are his season average of 4.07 and a frustrated, losing Czechia side.
- Actual
- 9
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back a goal after half-time and four cards or fewer; Czechia leak late and Spain rarely get booked.
- 1Czechia conceded 12 of their last 14 goals after half-time.
- 2Czechia are without the suspended Šulc, and Karabec and Coufal are doubtful.
- 3Spain average under one booking a game; this referee's last 10 averaged 3.4.
Go deeper
What happened3–1 · 1 of 2 picks won
Final score
3–1
Goals
4 (we expected 2.9)
Corners
5 (we expected 9.6)
Cards
9 (we expected 3.2)
Us vs the bookmakersBiggest disagreement: Over 3.5 goals — we say 45%, bookmakers 51%
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 87% | 89% | -2 |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | +1 |
| Czechia win | 4% | 3% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 88% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 72% | -3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 51% | -6 |
| Both teams score | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Penalty in the match | 28% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 16% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.60
Expected corners
9.6
Expected cards
3.2
Likeliest scores
2-0 (14%) · 3-0 (11%) · 1-0 (10%)
Late team news (6)Pavel Šulc suspended after his red card against England.
Pavel Šulc suspended after his red card against England.
2026-10-02reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
Adam Karabec highly unlikely to play after going off injured against England.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Right-back Vladimír Coufal is an injury doubt after missing the England game with a knock.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumkhelnow.com
De la Fuente to rotate: Laporte, Rodri and Olmo likely to return; Nico Williams may start; Lamine Yamal (3 goals, 1 assist this window) set to start.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Ferran Torres has withdrawn from the Spain squad with an ankle injury.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumsportsmole.co.uk
Spain top Group 3 on 6 points; Czechia bottom on 0 after two defeats.
2026-10-02reliability: highsportsmole.co.uk
What could go wrongSpain score early, ease off and rotate at the break, leaving a goalless second half.
Spain score early, ease off and rotate at the break, leaving a goalless second half.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting line-ups
- Czechia's expected XI and how far the Coufal and Karabec absences are confirmed
- Bookmaker lines for cards, corners and second-half goals
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Spain | Czechia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals for – against | 2.6 – 0.8 | 1.3 – 1.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.80 – 0.69 | 1.79 – 1.44 |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Corners for – against | 8.1 – 1.3 | 6.7 – 4.1 |
| Yellows for – against | 0.8 – 2.5 | 2.0 – 2.2 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
3 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins · 2.3 goals per game.
- 2022-06-12 · Spain 2–0 Czechia
- 2022-06-05 · Czechia 2–2 Spain
- 2016-06-13 · Spain 1–0 Czechia
Referee
Vassilis Fotias (Greece)
This season: 4.07 yellows and 26.3 fouls per game over 29 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.40 yellows per game.
Absences
Spain
E. García (injured: Knee Injury)
J. García (injured: Knee Injury)
P. Porro (injured: Physical Discomfort)
Czechia
D. Zima (injured: Unknown)
M. Chytil (injured: Unknown)
P. Šulc (suspended: red_card_suspension)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Spain
1.07
Draw
11.56
Czechia
29.16
Over 2.5 goals
1.31
Under 2.5 goals
3.32
Both score: yes
2.63
Both score: no
1.44
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 5.5%.
Last 10 games — Spain
| 09-29 | H | Croatia | 4–1 | W |
| 09-26 | A | England | 3–2 | W |
| 07-19 | H | Argentina | 0–0 | D |
| 07-14 | A | France | 2–0 | W |
| 07-10 | H | Belgium | 2–1 | W |
| 07-06 | A | Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 07-02 | H | Austria | 3–0 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Uruguay | 1–0 | W |
| 06-21 | H | Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W |
| 06-15 | H | Cabo Verde | 0–0 | D |
Last 10 games — Czechia
| 09-29 | H | England | 0–2 | L |
| 09-26 | H | Croatia | 1–2 | L |
| 06-25 | H | Mexico | 0–3 | L |
| 06-18 | H | South Africa | 1–1 | D |
| 06-12 | A | South Korea | 1–2 | L |
| 03-31 | H | Denmark | 1–1 | D |
| 03-26 | H | Ireland | 2–2 | D |
| 11-17 | H | Gibraltar | 6–0 | W |
| 10-12 | A | Faroe Islands | 1–2 | L |
| 10-09 | H | Croatia | 0–0 | D |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
Spain should beat a beaten, depleted Czechia comfortably; the price is fair, so the value is in a second-half goal and a fairly quiet card count.
Data (pack). Spain are 8-2-0 in their last 10, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 a game, with 70% clean sheets. At home they average 2.6 goals and 22.6 shots, and they have scored first in 8 of 8 games that had a goal. Czechia are 1-4-5 in their last 10 and have lost both Nations League games (0-2 to England, 1-2 to Croatia). They managed 1 corner in each of those games and were heavily outshot (6-22, 5-16). Their conceding pattern is key: 12 of 14 goals conceded (all competitions) and 14 of 17 away came after the break. Spain scored after half-time in 7 of the 9 games with known timing. Cards: Spain get 0.7 yellows a game and their opponents 2.6. Czechia average 0.7 yellows overall and 2.0 away. Referee Fotias averages 4.07 yellows a game this season but 3.4 over his last 10, with reds at 0.28 a game this season and 0.4 over his last 10.
News (web). Šulc is suspended after his red card against England. Karabec is highly doubtful after going off injured and Coufal is a doubt. Spain will rotate: Laporte, Rodri and Olmo are likely back, and Ferran Torres has withdrawn injured. Lamine Yamal (3 goals and 1 assist this window) should start. Czechia are bottom of the group on 0 points.
Market. The win odds imply 88.6% for Spain. I make it 87% and see no edge. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 71.7% and I have 69%. Both sides scoring is 35.4% and I have 35%. No priced market clears the 4-point bar. Expected goals: 2.3 to 0.6.
Picks. A goal in the second half: the second half should hold about 1.6 expected goals, which gives roughly 80%. Both teams' timing patterns point the same way, so I take 77%. Cards under 4.5: Spain's low card count, the referee's recent 3.4 average and the lesson about cards being over-predicted all point to roughly 3.2 expected. I put four cards or fewer at about 66%. A frustrated losing side and the referee's season average of 4.07 are the risk.
Uncertainties. Spain's rotation and possible game management after a big lead; rain affecting the tempo; Czechia's line-up.
Analysed by opus with web research.