Croatia vs England prediction
Croatia
EnglandOur pick
Total cards
under 4.5 cards
Both teams average about one yellow each, the referee's recent average is three, and there's no crowd.
Why this pick
Both teams average about one yellow each, the referee's recent average is three, and there's no crowd.
Both teams average 1.2 yellows per game across their last 10. Referee Jablonski averages 3.1 yellows over his last 10 with no reds. The empty stadium removes crowd pressure. With the learned downward correction, I expect about 3.1 cards. Their June meeting had zero yellows.
- Actual
- 1
No bookmaker price to compare against, so this is a judgement call, graded on its own.
In short
Back under 4.5 cards: both teams pick up few bookings and this referee is moderate.
- 1England won nine and drew one of their last ten away games.
- 2No Croatia fans are allowed in, which weakens their strong home record.
- 3Result and goals prices match our numbers, so there's no value there.
Go deeper
What happened0–7 · 1 of 1 picks won
Final score
0–7
Goals
7 (we expected 2.8)
Corners
7 (we expected 9.6)
Cards
1 (we expected 3.1)
Us vs the bookmakersWe're within 4 points of the bookmakers on everything.
| Ours | Bookmakers | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 23% | 24% | -1 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| England win | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 78% | -1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | -3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 36% | -3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | -2 |
| Penalty in the match | 24% | – | – |
| Red card in the match | 10% | – | – |
Bookmaker figures are their odds with the margin removed. A gap of 4 points or more is highlighted. The data-feed column is the data provider's own forecast, shown for reference.
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.60
Expected corners
9.6
Expected cards
3.1
Late team news (6)Match is played behind closed doors under a UEFA sanction for crowd trouble at Croatia v France in March 2025; about 100 England…
Match is played behind closed doors under a UEFA sanction for crowd trouble at Croatia v France in March 2025; about 100 England fans get complimentary tickets.
2026-10reliability: highespn.com
Martin Erlić is out of the Croatia squad with a hamstring strain, sidelined until mid-October.
2026-10-02reliability: highaljazeera.com
Croatia right-back Josip Juranović is out with illness; predicted XI: Livaković; Stanišić, Vušković, Gvardiol, Perišić; Modrić, Kovačić; L. Sučić, P. Sučić, Ivanović; Beljo.
2026-10-02reliability: mediumaljazeera.com
Nico O'Reilly has left the England squad injured with no replacement called up; Lewis Hall is expected at left-back.
2026-10-01reliability: highbeinsports.com
England are without Palmer (groin), Rice (hamstring), Mainoo and Rashford (hip). Predicted XI: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guéhi, Hall; Anderson, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Rogers, Gordon; Kane.
2026-10reliability: mediumfotmob.com
Pickford is expected to replace Trafford in goal.
2026-10reliability: mediumsports.yahoo.com
What could go wrongIf Croatia fall behind early, Modric's ageing midfield may start fouling cynically and push bookings past four.
If Croatia fall behind early, Modric's ageing midfield may start fouling cynically and push bookings past four.
What it couldn't verify
- Confirmed starting XIs
- Referee's record in international matches specifically
- Pickford vs Trafford in goal unclear (sources conflict)
The dataThis is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
This is the evidence the analyst was given for this match.
| Croatia | England | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Goals for – against | 2.4 – 0.6 | 3.0 – 0.7 |
| Expected goals (xG) for – against | 2.33 – 0.83 | 2.38 – 0.85 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Corners for – against | 6.8 – 4.0 | 6.1 – 3.9 |
| Yellows for – against | 1.6 – 1.8 | 1.3 – 1.4 |
| Days since last match | 4 | 4 |
Last 10 matches: the home side at home, the away side away. Goals and xG are for–against per game; corners and yellow cards likewise.
Head to head
8 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 6 away wins · 3.8 goals per game.
- 2026-06-17 · England 4–2 Croatia
- 2021-06-13 · England 1–0 Croatia
- 2018-11-18 · England 2–1 Croatia
- 2018-10-12 · Croatia 0–0 England
- 2018-07-11 · Croatia 2–1 England
Referee
Sven Jablonski (Germany)
This season: 3.31 yellows and 22.2 fouls per game over 42 matches.
Last 10 matches: 3.10 yellows per game.
Absences
Croatia
M. Erlić (injured: Unknown)
England
D. Henderson (injured: Foot Injury)
J. Stones (injured: Thigh Injury)
T. Livramento (injured: Knock Injury)
Line-ups: predicted
Bookmaker odds
Croatia
3.92
Draw
3.83
England
1.81
Over 2.5 goals
1.64
Under 2.5 goals
2.24
Both score: yes
1.60
Both score: no
2.23
Consensus of several bookmakers. Their combined margin is 6.9%.
Last 10 games — Croatia
| 09-29 | A | Spain | 1–4 | L |
| 09-26 | A | Czechia | 2–1 | W |
| 07-02 | A | Portugal | 1–2 | L |
| 06-27 | H | Ghana | 2–1 | W |
| 06-23 | A | Panama | 1–0 | W |
| 06-17 | A | England | 2–4 | L |
| 11-17 | A | Montenegro | 3–2 | W |
| 11-14 | H | Faroe Islands | 3–1 | W |
| 10-12 | H | Gibraltar | 3–0 | W |
| 10-09 | A | Czechia | 0–0 | D |
Last 10 games — England
| 09-29 | A | Czechia | 2–0 | W |
| 09-26 | H | Spain | 2–3 | L |
| 07-18 | A | France | 6–4 | W |
| 07-15 | H | Argentina | 1–2 | L |
| 07-11 | A | Norway | 1–1 | D |
| 07-06 | A | Mexico | 3–2 | W |
| 07-01 | H | DR Congo | 2–1 | W |
| 06-27 | A | Panama | 2–0 | W |
| 06-23 | H | Ghana | 0–0 | D |
| 06-17 | H | Croatia | 4–2 | W |
The full write-upThe analyst's complete reasoning · 2 min read
England are rightful favourites in an empty Rijeka stadium, but the prices look fair; the only lean is a low card count.
(a) Data. Croatia's home record is strong (8-2-0, 2.4 goals for and 0.6 against), but those games were mostly qualifiers against weak sides. Their recent games against strong teams went badly: 1-4 at Spain (0.4-1.8 xG) and 2-4 at England in June (0.7-2.9 xG). England are 9-1-0 away and scored first in all 9 of those games that had a goal. They also lost 2-3 to Spain. England have beaten Croatia in 6 of the 8 meetings in the feed. Corners are average: 5.8 for and 4.5 against for Croatia, 5.2 and 4.2 for England, so about 9.7 expected. Bzzoiro puts over 8.5 at only 54%, which is no case. Cards are low on both sides: 1.2 yellows per game each across their last 10. Referee Jablonski averages 3.31 this season and 3.1 over his last 10, with 0 reds in those 10.
(b) News (web). The game is behind closed doors under a UEFA sanction, with only about 100 England fans. That removes much of Croatia's home edge and should also mean less crowd pressure on the referee. Croatia are without Erlić (hamstring) and right-back Juranović (illness). England have lost O'Reilly from the squad, and Rice, Palmer, Mainoo, Rashford and Stones are all out. The probable England XI is Kane, Saka, Gordon and Rogers with Anderson and Lewis-Skelly in midfield, so the attack is intact but the midfield is weaker.
(c) Market. The no-margin prices are 23.9/24.4/51.7, with over 2.5 at 57.7% and both sides scoring at 58.2%. My model gives 23/25/52, over 2.5 at 55% and both sides scoring at 56%. None of these beats the price by 4 points. Team goal lines also fail once I shrink them as past results require: England over 1.5 comes out at about 47%. For cards, team rates of about 2.4 plus the referee's 3.1, with the learned 0.45 downward correction, give an expected 3.1. That puts under 4.5 at about 70% in a Poisson-style estimate. I shaded it to 68%, partly because international matches often see stricter refereeing.
(d) Uncertainties. Both sides played 4 days ago, so there may be rotation. The final lineups are only predicted. Neither side has a clear motivation edge: both are 1-1 in the group.
Analysed by opus with web research.